Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

[kytmagic]

Here are my final scores. This is what it's like for me night after night. Entered all 3 lineups into 6 contests including 50/50s and still didn't win a damn thing. Didn't even break even... zeroes across the board.

Felt like your lineups were fine, Bergy! I went -130 or something. One of those low-scoring nights where you needed to have Filip Forsberg to win.

I'd have to look into it more if someone like Oduya is a good choice since he doesn't really shoot the puck that often though.

As for the B2B stuff you guys were talking about earlier, I also had CLB myself because I knew they would be low owned, so don't worry about it, I was doing it too!

[RizzeeDizzee]

I guess in a way you have to gamble on low owned players if trying to hit it big. But to me, that approach seems tantamount to betting on long shots at the track. There has to be better value and success in picking safer, yet still non-obvious picks. Sort of like the NCAA basketball pool. In Bergy's case, his goalies crapped the bed last night. Between that and the lack of scoring, it was tough to come out ahead.

If only I didn't have 3000 words of columns to write each week - I'd be all over DFS just like I was with online poker back in the glorious mid 2000s.

[Bergy80]

Yeah, last night was very depressing for sure. I was feeling pretty confident in my lineups and thought I'd have something to gain however small. Just not meant to be for me. I honestly don't remember the last time I had a winning goalie. In any case my money is winding down on DK. The Bruins are my team and they've been playing well against the Pens for a while now so I'm going all in on the B's... Tuukka included. If it works, awesome! If not, I'm likely to be done with DFS.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Yeah, last night was very depressing for sure. I was feeling pretty confident in my lineups and thought I'd have something to gain however small. Just not meant to be for me. I honestly don't remember the last time I had a winning goalie. In any case my money is winding down on DK. The Bruins are my team and they've been playing well against the Pens for a while now so I'm going all in on the B's... Tuukka included. If it works, awesome! If not, I'm likely to be done with DFS.

My unscientific hunches for tonight are that I really like Anaheim, particularly Anderson, who has not only played well but now has Gibson breathing down his neck. Using the same logic, I'd avoid Buffalo guys. And the Bruins do seem like a decent bet, particularly Beleskey, who's been installed on PP1. Morrow might be a decent sleeper too - he looks like he's awoken over the last few games and I'm guessing he won't be widely owned at all.

[Bergy80]

What site are you looking at to see Beleskey is on the PP1? I'm only seeing him on PP2. Maybe I've been looking at the wrong sites all along?!

[RizzeeDizzee]

What site are you looking at to see Beleskey is on the PP1? I'm only seeing him on PP2. Maybe I've been looking at the wrong sites all along?!

Sites can be wrong, but box scores can't. Look at his PP minutes from the last two games - he's essentially been swapped in for Spooner. On Monday he had 3:05 on the PP, tied for tops among Boston forwards with Krejci, while on Saturday he had 5:59, which was tops among all Boston forwards by nearly 30 seconds. Of course this could all come to an end tonight, but by the looks of it he's there for now.

[kytmagic]

Someone was asking me to post my graph, so here it is for those of you who are interested!

DFS.png

[kytmagic]

I guess in a way you have to gamble on low owned players if trying to hit it big. But to me, that approach seems tantamount to betting on long shots at the track. There has to be better value and success in picking safer, yet still non-obvious picks. Sort of like the NCAA basketball pool. In Bergy's case, his goalies crapped the bed last night. Between that and the lack of scoring, it was tough to come out ahead.

If only I didn't have 3000 words of columns to write each week - I'd be all over DFS just like I was with online poker back in the glorious mid 2000s.

That's what most people starting to play DFS think, but it is not tantamount. When you bet on long shots on the track, you are given odds for your bet that don't change depending on how other people are betting. In DFS, you bet on the fave and everyone else bets on the fave, your expected value is affected by ownership because you're competing against them.

The idea is not to bet on long shots for the sake of long shotting. It's aiming at good players that the public is ignoring.

[kytmagic]

Sites can be wrong, but box scores can't. Look at his PP minutes from the last two games - he's essentially been swapped in for Spooner. On Monday he had 3:05 on the PP, tied for tops among Boston forwards with Krejci, while on Saturday he had 5:59, which was tops among all Boston forwards by nearly 30 seconds. Of course this could all come to an end tonight, but by the looks of it he's there for now.

Rizzee is right. Other sites can be wrong. One of the best ways to see is analyzing past games OR Twitter accounts that cover teams.

For the Bruins:
https://twitter.com/NHLBruins
https://twitter.com/GlobeFluto

You're basically not a serious DFS player if you don't use Twitter.

[RizzeeDizzee]

The idea is not to bet on long shots for the sake of long shotting. It's aiming at good players that the public is ignoring.

If you read my third sentence (There has to be better value and success in picking safer, yet still non-obvious picks), that's what I was advocating as well.

[kytmagic]

If you read my third sentence (There has to be better value and success in picking safer, yet still non-obvious picks), that's what I was advocating as well.

Oh yeah sorry, Rizzee, I didn't mean "you" as in you. I was trying to say what most people starting out do/think. Clearly, you get it. My bad !

[Bergy80]

At this point all I can really do is laugh. I was right in feeling that it would be a big night for the B's. I was right in feeling that Rask would have a strong night. I was WRONG in my choice of skaters! Finally got a winning goalie who got me 10.2pts, but not one of the goals scored was one of my skaters. I only got a single assist out of the deal. My total points last night was 20.2. I woke up and honestly just laughed about it. Typical luck for me.

Tonight's it. It's do or die for me. If I don't win to keep going, I'm out.

[RizzeeDizzee]

At this point all I can really do is laugh. I was right in feeling that it would be a big night for the B's. I was right in feeling that Rask would have a strong night. I was WRONG in my choice of skaters! Finally got a winning goalie who got me 10.2pts, but not one of the goals scored was one of my skaters. I only got a single assist out of the deal. My total points last night was 20.2. I woke up and honestly just laughed about it. Typical luck for me.

Tonight's it. It's do or die for me. If I don't win to keep going, I'm out.

Shudda gone with Andersen.....just sayin'........

I'll give my unscientific thoughts again later

[Bergy80]

I think you may have misunderstood. My goalie choice worked wonderfully for me. Both Rask and Andersen ended the night with 10.2pts so that wasn't my issue. My issue was my skaters didn't produce. I just picked the wrong ones again.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I think you may have misunderstood. My goalie choice worked wonderfully for me. Both Rask and Andersen ended the night with 10.2pts so that wasn't my issue. My issue was my skaters didn't produce. I just picked the wrong ones again.

Interesting that a SO wouldn't net Andersen more than a Rask 1G win - shows my naivete about DFS.

Here are my early thoughts about today's games. For going against the grain, I like the Jets players despite them going against the Stars, and maybe even Pavelec if he starts. I think Blues and Rangers players could be better than imagined, as when Lundqvist goes on lousy runs they tend to last for several games, while Allen might still be shaking off rust. Guys like Fabbri and Hayes could be decent plays there. Islanders players likely will be popular, and I think for good reason. But it might be an issue similar to what happened to you with the Bs - even if a team scores a bunch of goals you might not pick the right guys. But a Leddy, Bailey, or Nielsen grab could be worth considering. Mark Stone might be worthwhile as well, since the last time he had a multi-point game that set him on a decent scoring run. PA Parenteau might be a nice pick too - he knows he needs to do well to help land him on a top team come deadline day. Same goes for Boedkker. I wouldn't touch the Edmonton/LA or Chicago/Nashville, NJ/Columbus, or Minnesota/Philly games, since I can't get a read on how those will go.