desharnais predictions for 2012-2013

[rabidprairiedog]

team and league info in my signature.

curious what people think about desharnais? i picked him up off the waiver wire at the end of the season thinking hecould be a good, cheap ($950,000 salary) player for next season.

will he get around 60pts again next year, or should i try to sell him in the offseason? i don't think he has much value in my league as i had the last waiver pick and he was still around. besides, there aren't many players available with a salary under $1million who could get around 60pts - cheap fwds who'll contribute are hard to come by.

thanks for the help!

[Shoeless]

Youy have a lot of paring down to get to your keeper number - how do you determine exactly how many you keep?

[letangerang58]

I think Desharnais is going to have a great season next year. He's developed chemistry with Montreal's two best goal scorers which is always good news for a playmaker. I'd expect 60 from him again next year with the possibility of more. He's underrated right now so selling him wouldn't be a good idea. And his salary is a steal in a salary cap league.

[mister_mcgoo]

two sides to this coin:

the good: Gomez is a useless twat and the Habs are going to rid themselves of that cancer in the near future...that leaves Desharnais and Plecks as the top two centers. Plecky has shown that he's a career #2 C and there is no denying the chemistry Desharnais had on the top line

the bad: Desharnais is no more a #1 center than Pleckanec is, he got to step into that role this year because it was there for the taking but he's destined to be a 2nd or 3rd line center I believe. He works really hard and I can see him developing into a really solid 2-way player that does everything well and has a larger impact than just what he puts up on the scoreboard. So for you, the problem becomes one of whether he will maintain the role all this season. If the Habs are able to draft Grigorenko you might be in immediate trouble because he brings great size (he's 6'3 and over 200lbs already) and top-end talent something the Habs need desperately up the middle. Barring that, I think I'd still be worried the Habs might bring in a big C via trade or FA, its definitely something that they've needed for awhile

so if you don't have to make a decsion for awhile I would hold off as long as possible and see what develops...if nothing changes then I think he'll get you 60 pts again pretty easily. If the lineup gets a shakeup this year his pts make take a hit but he's still probably going to give you some nice bang for the buck. Even if he scores 50 pts next year that's still good return for his salary no?

[rabidprairiedog]

shoeless - we have to keep a minimum of 12 and a max of 16 + 3 prospects (less than 25 games played, don't count against the cap). i'm most likely looking to deal staal ($8.5million) and/or kovalchuk ($11million) and maybe weber ($7-8million+ ?).

there isn't a lot of love for staal in my league and even though kovy's salary is high for next year, we're moving to cap hits ($6.67million) the year after, so kovy is still attractive.

mcgoo - i don't have to declare my keepers until a week before our draft (september), but there are always a few GMs who are ready to make trades immediately after the playoffs are over, so i want to start thinking about it now in case there's someone who's disillusioned after their season and wants to gut their team right away.

i thought i'd plan for around 50 and hope for 60 - that's pretty good bang for the buck and allows me to keep some higher priced talent (which you can't win the league without).

thanks for the input - anyone else?

with the roster i have now, i'm going to try to keep.

[rabidprairiedog]

his salary is a steal in a salary cap league.

that's kind of what i was banking on.

[mister_mcgoo]

mcgoo - i don't have to declare my keepers until a week before our draft (september), but there are always a few GMs who are ready to make trades immediately after the playoffs are over, so i want to start thinking about it now in case there's someone who's disillusioned after their season and wants to gut their team right away.

gotcha, in that case I think you are on the right track with him... it sounds like he has excellent value in your format because of his low cap number, and there is a very good chance that line will stay the same (Pacioretty-Deharnais-Cole) because they were one of the only good things about the team this year. That and Desharnais is tiny, he needs a bigger wingers like Cole and Patches to get the best out of his game so the Habs will probably not mess too much with that line. I think you'd be wise to hold him unless you were getting back a guy who was a guarantee for 60-65 pts and only slightly more expensive, bang for buck is often what wins you salary cap leagues

[angus]

I'd sell high - it's just doing the smart thing. Again, provided you can sell high.

He may surprise again and eclipse 60 or even 70+, but that isn't as likely as a regression (even a slight one).

[rabidprairiedog]

I'd sell high - it's just doing the smart thing. Again, provided you can sell high.

He may surprise again and eclipse 60 or even 70+, but that isn't as likely as a regression (even a slight one).

problem is his value isn't "high" in my league. we have a draft in the fall, one "waiver draft" about 2 months into the season and a playoff draft (all playoff teams get one pick from the free agents in our league - can be to help with playoffs or to be a keeper). i won the pool so i had the last pick and that's when i took him. so, he was basically passed over in 3 different drafts this year. i don't know what i'd get for him but i am definitely gonna shop him

[Gaborlick]

it would be a good idea to sell high for a consistent 60-70 point player. He mostly likely will have a decline for the next season. I tried hard at the end of our season to sell, but no buyers. Most of them were like, "who the eff is that?!"..lol

[mister_mcgoo]

I don't disagree with the advice to sell high as I think he's more likely to have somewhat of a decline than he is to improve or stay even, but I think what you and Angus are overlooking here is his relative value vs. his cap hit...even if he falls to 50 pts next year he's still going to have good value realtive to his cap hit.

CapGeek has a 'bargain hunter' tool that will perhaps illustrate this better. These are the best bargains of last year for players who played at least 60 games.

http://capgeek.com/bargain_hunter.ph...entry_level=on

As you can see Desharnais had the 3rd best value in the league last year in terms of bang for the buck. I'd use that both as a selling point in trade negotiations as well as something to keep in mind when finalizing your roster/salary for the season

[Gaborlick]

yea salary cap, there is no question to keep him.

[rufio.85]

I'm of those who believe Desharnais can keep that pace and even surpass it.

Right now, he's the clear number 1 center (2nd at worst), and I don't see Bergevin acquiring a big centreman this summer. He doesn't want to move his assets right now, he just entered his position. The Habs will rebuild slowly with the draft and the growth of its core players (Subban, Pacioretty, Price, Eller and Desharnais + 3rd overall pick). Others have also pointed out his chemistry with Cole + Pac, good point too.

The other factor: his track record. This guy has just surpassed every single expectation in his career. At every level, he started at the bottom of the ladder and climbed to the top. He's doing exactly the same here. You can see he's adapted well, exploiting his quickness and his vision to compensate for his lack of stature. I'm not saying that he'll be another St-Louis, but 60 points is a very good starting point IMHO.

If he fits your roster, I would roll the dice and keep him, especially at his salary. He could be gold and his value could be even higher next season. You don't absolutely have to sell high all the time, sometimes you want to take that risk.

[mister_mcgoo]

and I don't see Bergevin acquiring a big centreman this summer. He doesn't want to move his assets right now, he just entered his position. The Habs will rebuild slowly with the draft and the growth of its core players (Subban, Pacioretty, Price, Eller and Desharnais + 3rd overall pick). Others have also pointed out his chemistry with Cole + Pac, good point too.

cough cough Grigorenko cough cough

[rufio.85]

Trevor Timmins won't draft Grigorenko, I'm pretty sure of that...
And even if he ends up in Montreal, the Habs have consistently waited at least a few years before bringing their prospects up with the big boys.