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Thread: Analyze for rep.

  1. #1
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    Default Analyze for rep.

    I send Ward/Carter/Carlson

    I get Rask/E.Kane/Streit

    Firstly I am looking to compete this year. I know I usually say that in most of my trade posts but in case you haven't dropped into any of my threads I figure it's a viable thing to mention.

    In our league our goalies score GAA and SV% by a weekly rolling average based on how many games they are played. Thus if a goalie plays one game during a week and he gets a shut out I would score 8 for a perfect GAA and 8 more points for a perfect save percentage. I would also score points for the shutout and the win. Now the thing is, I can continue playing said goalie but if he shits the bed and let's in 5 goals in his next game his GAA and SV% drops significantly and the points on the whole week for GAA and SV% could drop to 4 for each of the aforementioned categories. (EDIT: Sometimes if a goalie has earned a shutout in his first week's game I've benched him and sometimes it proves more useful to actually sit the goalie and not play him anymore to maintain the GAA and SV%. He would have to win anymore games I play him for it to make it worth it and often times it isn't as the risk for him to let in too many goals far outweighs the benefit of the win.

    Rask has a very low price tag and also will be eligible to be cycled into my minor team for say the next 2-3 years making him valuable as we only keep 2 goalies from our pro roster and are only allowed to house 3 goalies max on the pro team during the season. Given the fact that he is getting most times 1 start a week at this point in time I'm wondering could I get away with this as I think Rask could be great for my club in the future given Boston's heavy commitment to a defensive, physical style of hockey.

    I'm really looking at Kane here as if he continues on this route of production with his peripherals he'd be extremely good in my league. Streit is the go to offensive option on the Isles' while they have been slow as of late the upside is there for them to explode while Carlson's time and role could potentially change once Green returns. I more than likely wouldn't be keeping Carlson so in a one year setting I am kind of thinking now would be the time to sell high on his performance of late given his boost in ice time and PP.

    Can anyone offer an analytical explanation here on my thoughts? I find by typing out my rationalization of the move I'm going to make helps enlighten me on if I should or shouldn't make it. Even after typing this all out it seems good. Do you think I should get the opposing GM to maybe offer a pick seeing as he is getting a sure fire workhorse in Ward?
    Last edited by Old_Smokie; December 4, 2011 at 4:33 PM.
    73M Cap, Partial Keeper: 4F(ANY) 2D, 2G, Year : H2H Daily 2C/2LW/2RW/1F/4D/2G, 16 Teams

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    C: Eichel Seguin
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    D: Karlsson Byfuglien, Petry, Muzzin
    G: Rask, Murray Jarry


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    Goalies
    W(6) L(-1) SHO(5) SV(0.1) GA(-0.2) GAA(Range of -1 to 8) SV%(Range of -1 to 8)
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  2. #2
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    although I am not much of an analyst I will keep it short and simple

    I would do the trade if I were you

    Ward(carolina) seems to be lost this year (and you want to compete NOW)

    Carter doesn't have a groove in Columbus. I watched him at the Flames game the other night, and doesn't appear the player that he once used to be

    Carlson doesn't seem to be playing like he did last year, and to be honest I think he's a tad overrated.

    Rask, good team, solid numbers it just depends on how much he plays, but with your complicated system I can't tell you really if it helps you or not lol

    Kane seems to be rolling this year, and I don't see why he wouldn't continue posting solid stats this year.

    Streit like you say, is the guy to in NYI. He got hut last year, but it's not a recurring injury so no worries there IMO.

    So as analytical as I can be, I would do this if I were you

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    There's a lot of players involved in this deal, but I'll try to cut through all the noise to focus on what I think is important.

    1) Winning now - the most glaring question is will you be competitive without Ward? Sure he's ****ing the dog right now, but if you do the trade and you end up rolling with Howard, Rask and Gaaron will you have enough goalie starts to be competitive in Wins and Saves? Goalie stats account for a huge chunk of your categories... I would be weary about having only one solid #1 goalie. In all formats I always want two #1 goalies and a third goalie to spot start who will get me wins without killing my ratios.

    2) Longterm - We all LOVE Kane... that much is obvious... but in a keep 4, with Ovie, Crosby, Parise, Kovy AND Benn... what are the odds you will keep Kane, and is he big enough an upgrade to warrant losing Ward?

    In my opinion your keep 4 forwards by the end of he year will probably be Ovie, Crosby, BENN and Parise/Kovy. I don't think Kane is a big enough upgrade (if at all) over any of those guys to warrant losing Ward in a league where you're forced to keep 2 goalies.

    I would keep what you have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    There's a lot of players involved in this deal, but I'll try to cut through all the noise to focus on what I think is important.

    1) Winning now - the most glaring question is will you be competitive without Ward? Sure he's ****ing the dog right now, but if you do the trade and you end up rolling with Howard, Rask and Gaaron will you have enough goalie starts to be competitive in Wins and Saves? Goalie stats account for a huge chunk of your categories... I would be weary about having only one solid #1 goalie. In all formats I always want two #1 goalies and a third goalie to spot start who will get me wins without killing my ratios.

    2) Longterm - We all LOVE Kane... that much is obvious... but in a keep 4, with Ovie, Crosby, Parise, Kovy AND Benn... what are the odds you will keep Kane, and is he big enough an upgrade to warrant losing Ward?

    In my opinion your keep 4 forwards by the end of he year will probably be Ovie, Crosby, BENN and Parise/Kovy. I don't think Kane is a big enough upgrade (if at all) over any of those guys to warrant losing Ward in a league where you're forced to keep 2 goalies.

    I would keep what you have.
    I agree here as well. Ward despite his long time slump now should be back on track and bring you more solid stats then Rask will do for this season.

    Kane as much as i love him isn´t a keeper over the guys you already own. He is on the roll but Carter could easily hit fire again as well. He is capable of that we all know that. I see this as a toss up for this season.

    Only part you win is the Streit for Carlson part and only if Streit isn´t injured again.

    I don´t like the deal. Stay away.
    Commish of UNFFHL, dangered species being the sole Panthers fan on Dobber.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old_Smokie View Post
    I send Ward/Carter/Carlson

    I get Rask/E.Kane/Streit

    Firstly I am looking to compete this year. I know I usually say that in most of my trade posts but in case you haven't dropped into any of my threads I figure it's a viable thing to mention.

    In our league our goalies score GAA and SV% by a weekly rolling average based on how many games they are played. Thus if a goalie plays one game during a week and he gets a shut out I would score 8 for a perfect GAA and 8 more points for a perfect save percentage. I would also score points for the shutout and the win. Now the thing is, I can continue playing said goalie but if he shits the bed and let's in 5 goals in his next game his GAA and SV% drops significantly and the points on the whole week for GAA and SV% could drop to 4 for each of the aforementioned categories. (EDIT: Sometimes if a goalie has earned a shutout in his first week's game I've benched him and sometimes it proves more useful to actually sit the goalie and not play him anymore to maintain the GAA and SV%. He would have to win anymore games I play him for it to make it worth it and often times it isn't as the risk for him to let in too many goals far outweighs the benefit of the win.

    Rask has a very low price tag and also will be eligible to be cycled into my minor team for say the next 2-3 years making him valuable as we only keep 2 goalies from our pro roster and are only allowed to house 3 goalies max on the pro team during the season. Given the fact that he is getting most times 1 start a week at this point in time I'm wondering could I get away with this as I think Rask could be great for my club in the future given Boston's heavy commitment to a defensive, physical style of hockey.

    I'm really looking at Kane here as if he continues on this route of production with his peripherals he'd be extremely good in my league. Streit is the go to offensive option on the Isles' while they have been slow as of late the upside is there for them to explode while Carlson's time and role could potentially change once Green returns. I more than likely wouldn't be keeping Carlson so in a one year setting I am kind of thinking now would be the time to sell high on his performance of late given his boost in ice time and PP.

    Can anyone offer an analytical explanation here on my thoughts? I find by typing out my rationalization of the move I'm going to make helps enlighten me on if I should or shouldn't make it. Even after typing this all out it seems good. Do you think I should get the opposing GM to maybe offer a pick seeing as he is getting a sure fire workhorse in Ward?
    Well, in the short-term, you definitely upgraded your F and D spots for this year. Rask has to be on when he starts for your strategy to pay off, though. I'm thinking that you're right with the numbers and he should help your avg. a great deal.

    I do like Kane over Carter for this season, but i don't see how he will be kept beyond this year with your studly forwards. Like Streit, i'm guessing these 2 are 1yr rentals for you, which makes this trade more about Rask than any other player.

    With all of this said, i don't think it's a bad deal. It's just a little risky (Green and Streit better stay healthy and Rask has to be on when starting).
    Last edited by One87; December 4, 2011 at 6:03 PM.
    League:Fantrax 18 Team Dynasty, H2H (4C, 8W, 6D, 1G)
    Cats:G, A, GWG, PPP, SHP, SOG, H+B, FOW, S, SV%, W, GAA

    C: Backstrom,Giroux,MacKinnon,Seguin
    W:
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    Kesler,Marleau,Perron,Zibanejad

    D: Boyle,Del Zotto,Doughty,D.Hamilton,Hedman,Markov
    G: Rinne
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  6. #6
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    Ok, right now I'm trying to more so upgrade Ward. The same guy has Rinne as well whom I consider an upgrade over Ward. What if I could get him to entertain the idea of Carlson/Ward for Rinne/Streit?
    73M Cap, Partial Keeper: 4F(ANY) 2D, 2G, Year : H2H Daily 2C/2LW/2RW/1F/4D/2G, 16 Teams

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    C: Eichel Seguin
    LW: Ovechkin, Lee
    RW: Marner, Palmieri Buchnevich, Simmonds
    D: Karlsson Byfuglien, Petry, Muzzin
    G: Rask, Murray Jarry


    Farm (Max 200 GP):
    C. White, Vrana, Hischier, Sikura, DeSmith

    Stat Categories

    Skaters
    FOW(.1) G(4) A(3) PPG(1.5) PPA(1) SHG(3) SHA(2) GWG(1) SOG(.2) +-(1) PIMS(.1) BLK(.2) HIT(.2)
    Goalies
    W(6) L(-1) SHO(5) SV(0.1) GA(-0.2) GAA(Range of -1 to 8) SV%(Range of -1 to 8)
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old_Smokie View Post
    Ok, right now I'm trying to more so upgrade Ward. The same guy has Rinne as well whom I consider an upgrade over Ward. What if I could get him to entertain the idea of Carlson/Ward for Rinne/Streit?
    That would be a no brainer

  8. #8
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    Yeah, I don't like the idea of just shipping out ward and losing those stats even as low as they are. Rinne/Streit for Carlson/Ward. I think is a lot closer than people will say, but that's a good one for you.
    Sites: www.twitter.com/tsgraveline tsgraveline.blogspot.com thesharkremarks.blogspot.com

    Team 1:10 Multi-Cat Roto league

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    LW- Hall,Ovechkin, E.Kane Saad
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  9. #9
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    Yeah go with the Rinne/Streit trade instead cause you need get a starting goalie back if you dumping Ward. I know CLB and CAR could be bottom teams but losing Ward for a backup will leave you really thin in goal and vulnerable.
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  10. #10
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    Rinne is an ugrade over Rask. This is a MUCH better deal for you. You'd have 2 franchise tenders for now and the foreseeable future.
    League:Fantrax 18 Team Dynasty, H2H (4C, 8W, 6D, 1G)
    Cats:G, A, GWG, PPP, SHP, SOG, H+B, FOW, S, SV%, W, GAA

    C: Backstrom,Giroux,MacKinnon,Seguin
    W:
    D.Brown,Hartnell,Hossa,P.Kane
    Kesler,Marleau,Perron,Zibanejad

    D: Boyle,Del Zotto,Doughty,D.Hamilton,Hedman,Markov
    G: Rinne
    Bench: Braun,Comeau, Demers,DeHaan,Polak,Stempniak,Wingels --Fleury

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