Karlsson vs Elliott

[Ari Gold]

I have read a few comparisons here and there that they are very similar so I'm kind of curious. Where is Elliott's ceiling in comparison with Karlsson's? Who do most people think will be the better player fantasy wise in the long run?

Thanks!

[franklin]

Karlsson and this is not close for me. I have Karlsson upside around 65-70 and Elliott around 55-60.

[fungchen3]

Ari

This is an intriguing question and one that you need to be very open-minded about. If you really want to get to the crux of this, you need to roll up your sleeves and play the part of gambler and visionary, because off the cuff this looks like a silly question...but I think it is valid.

Let me start by saying I own both of these kids in a keeper league where D points are heavily bonused and D-Men have gold bar status, so I'm telling it to you straight from my intuition - that I'm a bit torn here.

This may seem like a crazy statement since Karlsson is currently tied for the league lead in D scoring and he's also perhaps my favorite player in the league. On the surface, Karlsson is the slam dunk choice here, and he is my official answer, but...

I think S.Elliott has the brains and skill package to be very special. Let me say this: if Elliott ended up being a 60 point D-Man in the NHL, I wouldn't be shocked in the least, but things need to go his way and questions need to be answered - whereas with Karlsson, the proof is in the pudding.

So if we're comparing ceilings, this is my take:

Karlsson
Max ceiling: 74 points
Realistic upside: 68 points
Steady production (avg. over any prime 3 year period): 59 points

Elliott
Max ceiling: 67 points
Realistic upside: 63 points
Steady production (avg. over any prime 3 year period): 53 points

Now, if we're comparing styles of play, I think they're similar in ways, different in others. Both are "darting" on the ice, where they can go from their own zone deep into the offensive zone in seconds. Elliott is a smoother skater (think Niedermayer-ish) and Karlsson is more elusive, East-West (think Leetch-ish). Both are uber creative and blessed with wonderful offensive instincts. Karlsson is more of a instinctual riverboat gambler who will take a ton of risks while Elliott is more cerebral and will pick his spots. Both have a ton of confidence but Elliott is more low-key and Karlsson has a ton of swagger - he gets angry, feisty and the will to not be denied. What amazes me about Karlsson - perhaps more than ANY player I've seen since Pavel Bure - is that he doesn't get shaken after making a bad play...instead he gets angry and gets right back at it...remarkable. Both are gifted passers and both have dangerous shots - Karlsson's bread and butter is his nasty slapper and Elliott is equipped with a filthy wrister (but I think he'll need to improve on his slapper at the NHL level).

So, high ceilings and skill sets aside, when making crucial decisions that impact our fantasy hockey teams for years, we must consider "opportunity" and "environment". This is where the ice is tilted in Karlsson's favor, perhaps heavily...unless you're a gambler or true visionary.

Karlsson will be the #1 offensive options on the Sens blueline for the next decade plus. Sure, Rundblad has potential to be great as well, but he'll always play Robin to Karlsson's Batman IMO. Karlsson is just too good and dangerous to be held back - his TOI is already in the high-20s.

S.Elliott needs to keep finding ways to bust his way into the Avs lineup for good. Perhaps this injury to E.Johnson is what Elliott needed to prove his worth, but he'll have to set the world on fire during this stint or he'll be back in the A once EJ returns. In addition, if Elliott struggles a bit during his NHL showcase, the Avs have another potential gem in Tyson Barrie just licking his chops for an equal opportunity. And when you consider a healthy E.Johnson, the waters are a bit muddy when predicting Elliott's impact with the Avs. I'm a firm believer that talent always prevails and my gut tells me that Elliott will have a full-time job with the Avs as soon as next season and he'll end up an impact offensive D-Man...but you just never know. Karlsson had a job waiting for him on a silver platter but Elliott is going to have to battle tough and earn his against fierce competition.