Best available option?

[rticinelli]

I'm trying to pick out the best available goalie for my next pick as a #2 goalie. Below is a list of remaining options I find interesting. Yahoo roto league with W, GAA, Sv% and shutouts. I'm trying to weigh the benefits/drawbacks between going after a top backup like Schneider vs. a starter like Backstrom. Again, this will be my #2 goalie (Lundqvist is my #1)... limited keeper league (league scoring/settings and my protection list are in my sig)... I am going for the championship this season. We can only keep 1 goalie every year and Lundqvist is my guy, so this goalie's sole purpose to me will be to help me win the championship this year. I'm not as concerned about "future value" or "potential trade value" as much as I am the raw stats he will earn for my team this season. Thoughts?

Niklas Backstrom
Jose Theodore
Semyon Varlamov
Ondrej Pavelec
Devan Dubnyk
Jonathan Bernier
Cory Schneider
Evgeni Nabokov
Michal Neuvirth

Or, would it be better to hold off on a #2 goalie with the slim pickens' that are left and go after one of the available forwards (i.e. Jagr, Pominville, Stafford, etc)?

p.s. Hi Craig.

[CascadeFilly]

If you can only protect one goalie, you'll be protecting Lundqvist, obviously. That being the case I'd go with the best goalie for the upcoming season from your list (in case of injury), and to me that would be Backstrom. He'll play a bunch, he's on a team that in theory should score more goals and be a better team, and his numbers are generally always solid.

[bluck]

If you're going for the win then I like backstrom and then Varlamov/Pavelec - clear starters

Future - Bernier, Markstrom

[Pengwin7]

~comment removed. Monday morning... I am an idiot and was not paying attention to details.~

[JHM]

Okay, so he's a throw away. (rise to fame would allow you to trade).

You don't want him to bugger up Lundy (save percentage, GAA).

You do need him to help you with Wins and a shutout or two would be nice too!

General assessment
Niklas Backstrom - in tough for save percentage/GAA, 30 wins
Jose Theodore - not famous for %, will be average GAA, 25 wins
Semyon Varlamov - good %, GAA might not be great, HEALTH - based on 60 games 28W
Ondrej Pavelec - great goalie - good %, average GAA, 5 SO, 30W
Devan Dubnyk - hmmmm. Stay away. Tricky business here.
Jonathan Bernier - good %, good GAA, 10 wins
Cory Schneider - good %, good GAA, 10 wins
Evgeni Nabokov - again very tricky business.
Michal Neuvirth - good %, good GAA, 10 wins.

So by reduction:
Ondrej Pavelec - fine goalie - good %, average GAA, 5 SO, 30W (also possible trade)
Jonathan Bernier - good %, good GAA, 10 wins
Cory Schneider - good %, good GAA, 10 wins
Michal Neuvirth - good %, good GAA, 10-15 wins (also possible trade value at end of year)

You also want to him to get a start most weeks.
Michal Neuvirth - good %, good GAA, 10-15 wins (also possible trade value at end of year)
Ondrej Pavelec - fine goalie - good %, average GAA, 5 SO, 30W (also possible trade)

when to draft
I'd draft the goalie now. You are actually looking for something fairly specific and want to guard Lundy's stats. Pavelec offers you the opportunity to trade to someone that has an injury. In the event that Lundy was injured, your cupboard isn't bare.

Neuvirth would also be a fine compliment.

[rticinelli]

You have a guy (Lundqvist) who will typically put up enough stats all by himself.

Your 2nd goalie should only be used if Lundqvist absolutely craps the bed during the week and you need another start... because you've got nothing to lose with crappy W/GAA/SV% stats.

The best way to get that extra start is with somebody that will be playing the most.

1. Backstrom
2. Varlamov
3. Pavelec

Personally, I think MIN will be a team re-born this year. It will feel like a new team and Backstrom may regain his motivation to stand on his head... and he can do it. Three and four seasons ago he was a top five goalie. He can do it again.

It's a standard roto league, not head to head. Does that change your list?

[kevinsrangers]

backstrom, varly, or go the jagr route.

[Magicstew]

Backstrom, Varly, Pavelec to help you solidify and protect your goalie stats.

[Pengwin7]

It's a standard roto league, not head to head. Does that change your list?

Jeez, yes.
(and sorry for not paying enough attention to detail)

Go with the best back-up on a good team.
You don't want to kill what Lundqvist provides by GAA & SV%.

1. Schneider
2. Neuvirth
3. Bernier

(sorry)

[JHM]

- Aggression is a critical tool in Fantasy. The most aggressive manager generally wins.
- In my sons Yahoo league, you need 80 wins to take the league title. Lundy can't do that. Win one week in three. (based on 26 weeks) 9-17
- SO - Lundy will put you near the league lead all by himself 16-10
- save percentage - this CAT is all over the board. With Lundy three good ones, one bad. Then, one time in three you'll be facing a Tim Thomas. Thus, all by himself, hope to win the CAT two times in three (that's pretty good). The other tender will help & hurt you with this CAT. 16-10
- ave - same story as save percentage. Riding Lundy solo would likely give you an overall winning percentage in net 15-11

This will give you a record of 56-48.

With a Pavelec you are more likely to finish
- Wins - 20-6
- SO - 19-7
- Save % - 14-12
- Ave - 14-12

total record: 67-37.

I believe Pavelec will continue to prove himself and you will see improvement with his save %, based against experience (even if Winnipeg is just average).

If you don't agree with my numbers, then adjust them accordingly. You also have some insurance if Lundy gets hurt. Additionally, although I like the Rangers very much and feel they are a better team than their record said last year, they aren't a shoo in to contend for the Cup.

With Neuvirth
Wins 12-14
SO 18-8
Save % 16-10
Ave 14-12

Overall 60-44

Neuvirth should benefit by playing caddy to Vokoun. Hopefully the two countrymen strike an amicable relationship (Neuvirth will have admired Vokoun over the years). Vokoun's play and work ethic should be teaching tools for Neuvirth. Neuvirth should play a less formidable set of opponents.

I'd be aggressive believing it will be a benefit this coming season, provide me with more trade options and enhance my security in the event of an injury.

[Pengwin7]

- In my sons Yahoo league, you need 80 wins to take the league title. Lundy can't do that. Win one week in three. (based on 26 weeks) 9-17

JHM - based on your use of the term "weeks", you may be making the same mistake I did first go-around. His pool is ROTO... not H2H.

Having the best GAA or SV% goalie typically results in FULL points (15/15pts MAX based on 15-team league) in two categories... so long as you don't compromise his stats with another starting goalie on a bad-team.

In roto, it can be worth accepting a lesser win total (7/15) to keep the other two in check. And Lundqvist's SO totals may only need to be paired with a back-up on a good defensive team to get about 10/15 points in that category.

[JHM]

Pengwin,

Okay, explain the difference between:

Head-to-head & roto.

In Josh's league, he plays one other team each week. They compete 10 CATS against each other. At the end of the week the winner gets two points for each CAT win, 1 pt for a tie. Overall they finish with 250-270 or so points.

I'm in a couple leagues.

- straight points - face one other team each week. Get two points for a win. Finish the year with about 40 points.

- points collected by adding values for four stats (G A PM +-), play one other team. Two points to the winning team.

There are so many variations... sorry.

Thanks
JHM

[Pengwin7]

Roto is a full season of collected statistics.

Consider a small-quantity statistic like Shutouts.
Anybody in H2H knows that just ONE shutout could win you that category for that week.
However, there are NO weeks in roto.

Example,
4-Team League
Team A: Lundqvist & Schneider. End of Season: 12 shutouts.
Team B: Carey Price & Pavelec. End of Season: 11 shutouts.
Team C: Jimmy Howard & Neuvirth. End of Season: 6 shutouts.
Team D: Michael Leighton & Holtby. End of Season: 0 shutouts.

In roto, the highest total gets full points. For 4 team league,
1st place team gets 4pts.
2nd place team gets 3pts
3rd place team gets 2pts
4th place team gets 1pt.

You can completely "punt" an entire category and get 1pt. (and some people do this)
Roto is most popular (& was created) for baseball leagues.

Here is a link to a DobberBaseball thread I made about my roto league:
http://www.dobberbaseball.com/index....ead.php&t=3354


I've referred to ROTO as a "completely different beast" of a league.
I also refer to it as the "drama queen" of fantasy leagues.

The strategy is different because you are constantly tweaking your team to catch a team ahead of you in the standings that is "within reach".

It can be very interesting when comparing an accumulated stat (like W or SO) and what chasing it could do to an averaged stat (like GAA or SV%). The strategy is pretty intense - but some say the fun factor of H2H is not there.

[rticinelli]

Pengwin,

Okay, explain the difference between:

Head-to-head & roto.

In Josh's league, he plays one other team each week. They compete 10 CATS against each other. At the end of the week the winner gets two points for each CAT win, 1 pt for a tie. Overall they finish with 250-270 or so points.

I'm in a couple leagues.

- straight points - face one other team each week. Get two points for a win. Finish the year with about 40 points.

- points collected by adding values for four stats (G A PM +-), play one other team. Two points to the winning team.

There are so many variations... sorry.

Thanks
JHM

JHM,

Maybe I missed you at the on-ramp, but it's not a points or head to head league at all. Just straight roto league, so only cumulative stats for the entire season matter - at the end of the season, your team's cumulative stats for every scoring position is ranked against the entire 15-team league... you get a point value that is opposite your league rank in each respective category (i.e. if you have the best GAA in the league, you get 15 points for GAA)... total points determines league standings.

[JHM]

Got it, sort of.

I read a thread the other day in regard to save% & GAA. The guy inserted his goalie the first week. Got a GAA of 1.00 (something like that) and a save percentage of .950. He pulled his goalies, traded them, and never inserted a goalie again. This conceded Wins, but consistently gave him the other stats. He also had the benefit of using the value of his goaltending (trade value) at another position for the entire season.

Okay, a vaguely understand. I also find the concept offensive. I'm not blaming the guy for doing it, particularly if they were playing for $$$. It's against the spirit of the game in general though.

Thanks
JHM