Pavelec

[BladesOfSteel]

He seems to, if anything, have a great opportunity as the starter in WPG, and has shown quick flashes of brilliance. As a keeper, how much stock do you put in Pavelec? What do you expect from him over the next 3 years. Does he have elite potential?

Using the following statistics: Games Started, Wins, Loses, GAA, SV% and SO, how would you rank Pavelec against S. Mason and Varlamov as keepers?

[habs83]

I would think that Pavelec is a legit keeper in any league format. He played in 58 games last year, even if he missed the entire first month of the season. He dosn't have any serious competition right now, and there isn't a prospect in the minors who seems capable of stealing his job anytime soon. In Winnipeg, the D isn't overly impressive, but the team in general will get better every season. New GM will have money to spend, but seems willing to wait and give a chance to all of the prospects to mature, and then proceed to improve the team with free agents. His SV% is already respectable, the games started will icrease, so will the wins. The down side is that I don't think that the D is impressive enough to expect a lot of SO.

I think that Pavelec holds more value than Mason and Varlamov. I don't like what Sherman is doing in Colorado, and Varlamov is injury-proned. With the contract he just signed, the #1 spot is his to lose, but Giguère could very well carry the load if he falters.

I am a big Mason doubter...and a Columbus doubter as well. I don't expect Wisniewski and Martinek to improve their overall D at all. The acquisition of Carter might help them score goals, which could ease the pressure on Mason, but he seems so fragile and lost right now that I would not risk to keep him, especially over Pavelec.

[dyzfunctioned]

Pavelec has a ton of skill and could very well be a top 10 (or even higher) goalie in the league at some point. I'd take him over Mason or Varlamov.

One thing you have to keep in mind though is he's young and struggles with consistency. The more opportunity he has to start the more he'll work through it but it will take a bit of time. Plus your league counts losses and Winnipeg isn't likely to be a playoff team in the next year or two.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Dyz, you're on fire with the advice recently. I read through your stuff and just find myself nodding my head and thinking "this guy knows his stuff!"

Pavelec is primed to be a great producer. Seems like his perceived value isn't in line with his potential production, so I'd be all over him!

[dyzfunctioned]

Dyz, you're on fire with the advice recently. I read through your stuff and just find myself nodding my head and thinking "this guy knows his stuff!"

Pavelec is primed to be a great producer. Seems like his perceived value isn't in line with his potential production, so I'd be all over him!

Haha, coming from you that means a lot. Thanks. All your posts are gold.

[mister_mcgoo]

i dont think 'elite' and 'Pavelec' should be mentioned in the same sentence, that's going MUCH too far, especially with a young goalie who has struggled with consistency on a weak team. That said, he is a starter and I think he has the potential to be in the top half of the league if he continues with the kind of play we saw from him last season...call me cautiously optimistic

[dyzfunctioned]

i dont think 'elite' and 'Pavelec' should be mentioned in the same sentence, that's going MUCH too far, especially with a young goalie who has struggled with consistency on a weak team. That said, he is a starter and I think he has the potential to be in the top half of the league if he continues with the kind of play we saw from him last season...call me cautiously optimistic

He was quite literally the best goalie in the league during a significant stretch last year. Add on to that some people, such as Goldman who knows goalies better than anyone, saying he has the potential to be a top 5 goalie at some point...

Yea, I won't hesitate too much in saying that Pavelec could be an elite (assuming around a top 10 goalie) starter at some point in the future.

[agentzero]

I tend to place myself somewhere in between mcgoo and dyz here. I am somewhat more cautious than dyz but in terms of talent level, I believe Pavelec has the stuff to be very very good. A lot will depend on the team in front of him and the coach's tactics to help him out, but this guy has the skill to steal games bigtime. His heart problems scared me off early on but that has nothing to do with how talented this goalie is. Pure skill, he ranks in the upper half for sure. Elite, not quite there yet to me. Elite is like top 5 and that takes some time to prove but he definitely has the potential to end up somewhere near there sometime (maybe soon), but for now I cautiously approach it as potential and I treat his value accordingly.

[dyzfunctioned]

I tend to place myself somewhere in between mcgoo and dyz here. I am somewhat more cautious than dyz but in terms of talent level, I believe Pavelec has the stuff to be very very good. A lot will depend on the team in front of him and the coach's tactics to help him out, but this guy has the skill to steal games bigtime. His heart problems scared me off early on but that has nothing to do with how talented this goalie is. Pure skill, he ranks in the upper half for sure. Elite, not quite there yet to me. Elite is like top 5 and that takes some time to prove but he definitely has the potential to end up somewhere near there sometime (maybe soon), but for now I cautiously approach it as potential and I treat his value accordingly.

I think you have a pretty similiar view as me. Obviously his talent can't be questioned, but he has a few things he has to overcome, mainly his consistency. However, the more games he starts, the more he should be able to iron it out.

Do I think he'll be an elite goalie next year? No, not a chance. Not even top-10 if I was betting. But he has the skill set and opportunity to be an elite starter at some point in the future.

[mister_mcgoo]

He was quite literally the best goalie in the league during a significant stretch last year. Add on to that some people, such as Goldman who knows goalies better than anyone, saying he has the potential to be a top 5 goalie at some point...

Yea, I won't hesitate too much in saying that Pavelec could be an elite (assuming around a top 10 goalie) starter at some point in the future.

you are clearly confusing him with a different Euro goaltender...I think the name you were searching for is 'RINNE' as far as 'best goalie in the league' goes.

Seriously dude, its fine to be bullish on a guy and be optimistic for his future but its quite another to start tossing around words like 'elite' after one decent season. Hows Steve Mason doing these days? How bout Jim Carey, still relishing his Vezina win? Pavelec has great potential I agree but you go much too far, too soon IMO. Potential is nothing if its not fully realized, almost every goalie in the league has potential, whether they deliver on it is not always clear

[tgraveline]

I'm with dyz on this. I think Pavelec has the skill and the right situation to work his way up to being an elite. I traded for him as he seems to be pretty safe, he's young, he's solid. I think the defense in front of him is actually pretty good with the top 4 having Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom. He'll still face a lot of shots and have a .914% or plus this next season. That is what he ended at last season. I still think Winnipeg will make a splash here in the near future to upgrade the scoring. I don't know what that will look like, but hopefully it's something that helps him in the long run.

Many people seem to think that the 'Peg will suck because of their road trips, but much of their competition has to travel a large amount as well to get to them.

[dyzfunctioned]

you are clearly confusing him with a different Euro goaltender...I think the name you were searching for is 'RINNE' as far as 'best goalie in the league' goes.

Seriously dude, its fine to be bullish on a guy and be optimistic for his future but its quite another to start tossing around words like 'elite' after one decent season. Hows Steve Mason doing these days? How bout Jim Carey, still relishing his Vezina win? Pavelec has great potential I agree but you go much too far, too soon IMO. Potential is nothing if its not fully realized, almost every goalie in the league has potential, whether they deliver on it is not always clear

I think you think I'm arguing with you when I'm not really haha. Yes, Rinne was also the best goalie in the league during a stretch as well. Different stretches my friend.

Nowhere did I say Pavelec WILL be elite. I'm saying he has the skill set and opportunity to be an elite starter down the road if he can iron out his other issues.

[mister_mcgoo]

I think you think I'm arguing with you when I'm not really haha. Yes, Rinne was also the best goalie in the league during a stretch as well. Different stretches my friend.

Nowhere did I say Pavelec WILL be elite. I'm saying he has the skill set and opportunity to be an elite starter down the road if he can iron out his other issues.

ok, you gotta boner for him, I get it, you may well turn out to be correct and he does develop into a stud.

I'm still unconvinced though, I've seen him play many times in Atlanta and nothing about his game suggested he has elite talent. Granted I only saw 3-4 games he played in last year at Phillips arena but I recall one of them he got rocked 9-3 by the Leafs, the LEAFS!!! lol

[dyzfunctioned]

ok, you gotta boner for him, I get it, you may well turn out to be correct and he does develop into a stud.

I'm still unconvinced though, I've seen him play many times in Atlanta and nothing about his game suggested he has elite talent. Granted I only saw 3-4 games he played in last year at Phillips arena but I recall one of them he got rocked 9-3 by the Leafs, the LEAFS!!! lol

Yep, the Thrashers certainly had their ups and downs last year.

And fair enough - we view it a bit different, but everyone is entitled to their opinion and there's no guarantee mine is more right than yours! Though it is. Haha just kidding!

[mister_mcgoo]

Yep, the Thrashers certainly had their ups and downs last year.

And fair enough - we view it a bit different, but everyone is entitled to their opinion and there's no guarantee mine is more right than yours! Though it is. Haha just kidding!

are you right 52% of the time though?