[Next Move] Ottawa Senators

[pharling]

The2010 2011 season for the Sen's was a complete disaster. At the start of the Season hopes were high. Fueled by the promise of a healthy Pascal Leclair and Jason Spezza to lead the team. The off season free agent acquisition of Sergi Gonchar promised to make the power play lethal. The wheels came off early and the Sens were out of a playoff contention before the trade deadline. As a result GM Brian Murray who appeared to be under a mandate to dump salary purged the roster. The main reasons for the poor season were mainly poor goalkeeping from the oft injured Pascal Leclaire and inconsistent Brian Elliot and injuries to key players like Spezza, Alfredsson, etc. The nightmare season was capped off at the draft lottery where the Sens went from dreaming of a top three pick in this summers draft to slipping all the way down to sixth.
The Sens can look back on some positives however. First and foremost the promising play from several key young players. Erik Karlsson finished with a very exciting 13 goals and 32 assists (never mind the -30 for now). Goalie Robin Lehner saw some time out of injury need and desperation and played very well. He is the goalie of the future no doubt. And the late season free agent signing of the most sought-after NCAA star Stephane Da Costa. Rookies Greening, Smith, Condra, Butler also had late season auditions after the a fore mentioned roster purging and all played well. Greening and Smith were recently resigned. The roster purge also cleared up some cap space. The departure of Kelly, Fisher, Campoli, Ruttu, and Kovalev created over 14 million in cap space. The Sens will likely gain another 4.6 by not signing Leclaire and Svatos. The Sens have approximately $45.3 committed for 17 players
So what holes do the Sens have to fill?

First and foremost they need to hire a coach. This will be a young team for sure. Expectations will be lower than last season of course. Failure to miss the playoffs for the third time in four years will be tolerated as long as the team shows promise and potential. Candidates may include Kirk Muller, Craig MacTavish or even Pat Quinn.

Next is a second line center. Spezza is a great #1 but you can count on him to go down with injury and miss close to 20 games. This means the second line center must be able to carry the load in his absence. Look for the sens to fill this void the draft and trade. Free agent candidates may include Fleischman, laich, and Arnott.

The defense needs improvement also. Both Gonchar and Kuba were a major disappointment last year. Gonchars $5 million cap hit and age make him unmovable. Look for Murray to shop Kuba hard this summer and if he is unable to find a taker for Kuba's $3.7 -26 either waivers, demotion to minors or buyout are all possibilities. The exile of Kuba is further fueled by the emergence of promising rookies such as David Runblad, Jared Cowan, and patrick Wiercioch. One or even two of these players will be in the NHL next season.

Goal tending. Murray pulled off one of last seasons best trades swapping Elliot for Anderson then promptly resigning Anderson giving the Sens a legit #1 goalie. A new back up will be required as Lehner needs more seasoning in the AHL. Look for a journey man back up from free agency to fill this void.

here are some predictions on what this all means and what may be in store as the Sens next move.

Murray said on TSN at the draft lottery they had a player they liked if the end up with one of the top 3 picks. They got the sixth pick. Look for Murray to go hard after that guy. He can trade up using the 6th overall pick and the 21 pick from Nashville or his own second round pick.

Kuba gets a buy out. Cap hit would be $1.233 for 2 seasons.
Lee is traded to Minnesota or sent to minors.

Rookies to make the team, Runblad, Cowan, Da Costa, Condra, Greening, and Butler.

Making an impact in the AHL. Silfverberg, Lehner, Wiercioch

The Bottom line. Sens are a team in rebuild right now. It will not take them as long as it will the Leafs or Oilers however. They will be a competitive team next season. They will be aggressive in acquiring some veteran top six forwards this summer. A second line center, a top three winger either by trade or free agency.
The goal tending will be a strength for the first time in franchise history.

The Sens next moves are, hire a coach, draft a franchise player, fill holes at forward and develop an impressive crop of talented young players.

For more visit
http://fantasyhockeynerd.blogspot.co...-senators.html

[Big Ev]

Pretty much agree with everything, except I have heard that they will try to trade or buy-out Gonchar before Kuba. They like Kuba better because he's a left-D. That's just hearsay, so take it with a grain of salt. I don't necessariyl agree with it either.

Also, I doubt Lee is traded or demoted. He has a one-way deal and he was pretty damn impressive last year as a "shut-down" D.

If they draft Couturier, he has a good chance to be the #2 centre. If they get Landeskog he probably starts off on the second line. A second line with Landeskog and Silfverberg (if he came over and made it) would be sweet.

I predict that one of Regin or Folgino will be moved at the draft, and Gonchar is traded to a team like Detroit or San Jose. I would also love Laich but not sure if he would sign here. He was dafted by the Sens though. If not Laich, then maybe Upshall or Jokinen would be good. They can afford to overpay, too. Also, Josh Harding, Alex Auld, or Marty Turco signs as the backup.

and I think both Rundblad and Gonchar make the team.

Good post pharling!

[Big Ev]

Here's a "dream" roster if they get Landeskog.

Michalek-Spezza-Butler
Landeskog-Silfverberg-Alfredsson
Greening-Smith-Condra
Foligno-Winchester-Neil

Cowen-Karlsson
Phillips-Lee
Kuba-Rundblad

Anderson
Auld

Here's a roster if they get Couturier and sign Laich.

Michalek-Spezza-Butler
Laich-Couturier-Alfredsson
Greening-Smith-Condra
Foligno-Winchester-Neil

Cowen-Karlsson
Phillips-Rundblad
Kuba-Lee

Anderson
Auld

[pharling]

Thanks, glad you enjoyed the post!
Not sure Gonchar has any value. I am sure they tried to move him before the deadline. However with Rafalski set to retire and if Lidstrom follows suit, Detroit may be a realistic option. if Gonchar stays he may be more effective if the new coach uses him properly, sparingly even strength, the whole 2 min on the PP on the right side. Clouston constantly played him on the Left but all his success has been on the right. Pierre Macguire was adamant about that every game i watched! I know they shopped lee hard all year but were unable to find any takers. They will probably live with him but Kuba is totally available, and Sens would love to move him to make room for Runblad.
I am sure they are looking to pick a center but not sure the guy they want/pick will be NHL ready this season. If not they need a center.
Auld as the back up makes a lot of sense, it would be his second tour of duty here. I think you are on the money there.

[GMGates]

Excellent post and great back and forth discussion.

I am sure a lot of Sens fans will be watching the draft closely and will be more than happy to land either Couturier / Landeskog.

Looking forward to more!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think both Landeskog and Couturier will be Top 5 picks so the Senators can only dream about them. Of course they could get one of them but I think Strome is more likely to be the best available forward with the 6th pick. So they should trade up for sure.

Is Foligno really a 4th liner? I've always thought he has some potential since he was a 1st round pick and has scored over 30 points twice already.

[pharling]

Foligno will probably be a second line player for the Sens next year. he is best suited as a third liner however. Not unlike former team mate Mike Fisher. Second line player if need be but not well placed. Excellent third line player! If he ends up on the fourth line it will be a disaster and probably lead to a trade. My guess is he plays on the second line behind Michalek unless the Sens trade for a better option.

[kbooks]

I think both Landeskog and Couturier will be Top 5 picks so the Senators can only dream about them. Of course they could get one of them but I think Strome is more likely to be the best available forward with the 6th pick. So they should trade up for sure.

Is Foligno really a 4th liner? I've always thought he has some potential since he was a 1st round pick and has scored over 30 points twice already.

I agree and expect Murray will try to do a deal for Florida's 3rd.

He would offer the 6th pick and perhaps the Nashville pick or Ottawas 2nd round pick. alternatively he might include a prospect like Wiercoich or perhaps Lee. High price put getting Coutuier or Huberdeau would make it worth it. That would provide the 2nd center to go with Spezza.

[Big Ev]

Foligno is on my "fourth line" but it's more like "Line 3B" as theywill see the same amount of time.

I think they will get Huberdeau, Couturier, or Landeskog because 2 d-men should be taken in the Top 5. Couturier right now is the most likely because he was been dropping while others have passed him, but it depends on the Top 5 teams' lists.

But Murray said att he draft that they like 1 guy more than any other player. That is probably Landeskog but could also be Huberdeau. Probably not Couturier.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think they will get Huberdeau, Couturier, or Landeskog because 2 d-men should be taken in the Top 5.

I agree; 2 d-men should be taken in the Top 5 but like we saw last year, it might not go as planned for the d-men. I think the best trade partner for the Senators would be the Islanders. That way they would get one of Couturier/Landeskog/Huberdeau and the Islanders would get a d-man since they don't really need more forwards. I know this way the Senators would not get the player they want but I don't think any of the other Top 5 picks are going anywhere.

[Big Ev]

They said they were looking to acqurie the 3rd pick, so Florida might be a partner. I'd toss in Folgino or Regin into a deal to sweeten it.

If nobody trades and Strome is the best available forward, I'm taking Murphy.

[pharling]

Florida does have a history of trading down at the draft I believe. Perhaps not now that Tallon is in charge. If Florida is willing to trade the third pick for the sixth and one of Regin, Foligno, Wiercioch, Sens second round pick, I would go for it. It is a steep price to pay but the difference between players should be worth it.

[Big Ev]

Yeah it's a rumour probably based on nothing, but Travis Yost on hockeybuzz (not Eklund) suggests the sens may have interest in TJ Oshie. Sign me up!

[dyzfunctioned]

Florida would love to get one of Landeskog, Couturier, Larsson. Really don't see them moving down 3 spots.

[Big Ev]

Florida would love to get one of Landeskog, Couturier, Larsson. Really don't see them moving down 3 spots.

They need as many prospects as they can get, so if they can gain more assets by tradnig down it will help them. Their team is in absolute shambles.