Ranking Goalies: A Lesson in Clarity

[GoalieGuild]

Did any of you read Adrian Dater's and Greg Wyshynski's Top-10 Goalie Rankings blogs today??

If you did, please read our new School of Block post titled "Ranking Goalies: A Lesson in Clarity" right here: http://www.thegoalieguild.com/?p=4309

I think it's important that readers, especially fantasy newbies and casual fans, understand just how convoluted a Top-10 Ranking can be. And how they should be approached.

For those that didn't catch them, here they are...but to get a complete story of my post, you'll need to read their blogs in full:

ADRIAN DATER'S TOP-10

1. Ryan Miller
2. Ilya Bryzgalov
3. Martin Brodeur
4. Craig Anderson
5. Roberto Luongo
6. Niklas Backstrom
7. Tomas Vokoun
8. Henrik Lundqvist
9. Miikka Kiprusoff
10. Jimmy Howard

GREG WYSHYNSKI'S TOP-10

1. Ryan Miller
2. Martin Brodeur
3. Tomas Vokoun
4. Roberto Luongo
5. Ilya Bryzgalov
6. Henrik Lundqvist
7. Niklas Backstrom
8. Pekka Rinne
9. Cam Ward
10. Miikka Kiprusoff

[GoalieGuild]

bump.

of all the threads in the last week or so, I'm surprised this one got zero replies LOL.

[doulos]

Hey Justin,

Some great thoughts on goalie rankings. I finally had time this morning to sit down and read the articles, as well as your 'Top 10 One-Year Goalies' article that you just wrote.

This is really great stuff and I agree that establishing HOW rankings are put together is a huge part of the value for them.

I'm very interested in your .900 save%/games played stat that you used to determine your 1 year rankings for next season. A couple things that really surprised me:

Rask at #1 - I mean I knew he was a quality young goaltender but this stat is particularly surprising given how unremarkable the Bruins as a team performed. I have some small concerns that he'll keep it up over the course of a whole season, but you've done well to convince me that I should bump him up my draft list.

Luongo at #8 - I've been a huge Luongo fan for a number of years now but have really started to question if I need to move on. This article really strengthened some of that questioning for me.

There were a few more interesting tidbits in the article (for those of you reading this it's found at http://www.thegoalieguild.com/?p=4376 ) but I'll leave it up to others to go read it for themselves.

Great stuff as usual, you're a huge asset to this community here. I must admit that your writing style had me a little wary at first, but I've come to see the value in the type of goalie analysis you do. Keep it up!

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks Doulos I appreciate that!!!

Having concerns with young goalies that posted really good stats last year is totally natural and just means your being a smart fantasy manager. I was not that shocked to see Rask post so many games with a .900 save percentage or higher. It's not a hard-to-reach number if you are an elite talent. It does reveal that he's competent enough to stop every shot he sees, and if the Bruins are a little better in the PK department and can score a few more goals (of course) then he'll be an even bigger fantasy asset.

Coupled with the fact he'll easily play an extra 10-15 games compared to last year, it averages out to him being one hell of a goalie for this season. He will rarely make #1 on most people's lists. But I have been one of his biggest fans since he came overseas and I just like to stick by my analysis as long as possible. Until he proves to me he's not the best, he will always remain #1.

Luongo is probably the one goalie that could really turn things around and be a Top-5 goalie. But it's unclear how he'll adjust with a new goalie coach, a new backup that will actually be getting starts, and dealing with traffic again. I haven't been too impressed with Luongo over the last two seasons, especially since he has the talent and size to be a Top-5 goalie on my list.

Glad you find value in the content and thanks for reading!!

[metaldude26]

Fantastic work as per usual. That dependability rating (if you'll allow me to coin the term) is the perfect statistic for us poolies. I weight consistency above all else in terms of how I value goalies so I'll be applying this directly to most if not all of my pools.

I have a question about Rask. Is he really projected to start 60-65 games? Even with Thomas still there?

I'm also curious if your proximity to the Avalanche didn't apply some bias in your assessment of him. He was the only guy who you mentioned a specific roster change and how it might affect him.

[GoalieGuild]

Hindsight is always 20-20 and so I probably would have re-done the stats to reveal a .910 or .915 save percentage or higher ... as I think .900 is GOOD but not GREAT. Every NHL goalie should stop 9 out of 10 shots in my opinion, but like you said it does reveal a lot about a goalie's consistency. I don't HATE stats, I just only like to use the ones that really matter (like when I do the Beast Tracker for the playoffs).

Rask might be projected to play less than 60 games, but I'm willing to bet he still gets 65 starts because he's that good. I see him having a couple of streaks where he wins 6-7 games in a row and that should put him right around 60-65 games.

I admit I need to do a better job of discussing goalies that see a significant change in the defense they play behind. I brought up Brett Clark no longer blocking shots because he's consistently one of the top shot-blockers in the league and it was a major help considering Anderson faced more shots than another other goalie by a mile last season. So that volume would have been even greater had Clark not been in the lineup. Of course that comes up since I live here in Colorado and cover the team, so its more pressing in my mind. Part of that is because I understand how Colorado relies heavily on shot-blocking. I don't have that same insight for other NHL teams. That's just me being 100% honest!! But I will definitely strive to bring up the dynamic of team defense on a more consistent basis.

[Dean Youngblood]

Ranking Kipper ahead of Loungo is two scoops of crazy IMO

[GoalieGuild]

Personally I'd take Kipper over Luongo any time, any where. Most fantasy managers will feel more confidence in Kipper posting solid stats than I would in Luongo heading into the season. That was reflected in the stats last year, despite so many people thinking Kiprusoff was not good. He wasn't in the Olympics, but that doesn't impact his value statistically heading into this season.

I think Lou will be very good.

But I KNOWW that Kiprusoff will.

Believe me, it's a very fine line between the two.

[The Good Sir]

Excellent work as always Goldie! I love reading your insight into goaltenders as it is one of my favorite parts about fantasy hockey. I recently lost Price and Bernier in a deal that saw me gain OV and Neuvirth so my team (in signature) is a little lacking in goaltending. Thats said I was wondering if you could go into more detail about Rinne's "untapped potential" as you put it. He just barely made your top 10, and I'm actually surprised he did after seeing that he was only .900 or better through 58% of his starts. How do you see things shaking down for him this year? Do you think he will relish in getting worked more or will it affect his play?

[Chicleteur]

Definitely another good piece of work from you Justin!

[Leafs2010]

Justin, I asked this in the other thread but you may have overlooked it so I'll ask again here.

Regarding Kipper, any insight as to why he posted a weak GAA/SV% in 2007 and 2008. What changed last year that enabled him to put up elite numbers?

[jl_1978]

How close is it between Rinne and Halak? Most people seem to rank Rinne higher, but your rankings have Halak ahead by 1 spot. Halak's GAA and SV% were quite a bit better than Rinne last year, while their shutout ratio was similar. Do you see both goalies playing 70 games and approaching 40W this year?
Another concern for Rinne is you mention his streakiness... Combined with the Preds tendency to have a tight leash on their starters, it adds a bit of risk too, doesn't it?