The Mid-Season Coaching Change. What It Means For Your Roster.

[metaldude26]

Back when Philadelphia made their coaching change from John Stevens to Peter Laviolette, either Dobber or Angus made a comment in the ramblings about figuring out what those coaching changes tend to do for their teams. Well I took it upon myself to crunch the numbers of every midseason coaching change made since the lockout. Now I'm sure it comes as no surprise that teams tend improve after a coaching change is made but now you can see the proof. I've attached a file that breaks down all the numbers. For the most part every team that has made a coaching change has seen an increase in scoring often stemming from a more efficient powerplay.

Now the window for buying low on Flyers is closing fast, but a new window has opened for St. Louis players. I know I'm actively pursuing Blues players in all my pools. Now the numbers show that the teams score more but the next step would be to see whether or not it's the depth of scoring that improves or whether the stars see a big uptick. I'd guess it's probably a combination but certainly something worth investigating.

Now it's worth noting that I didn't include shootout goals in the numbers and that I didn't look at coaching changes made with less than 10 games into or remaining in the season because the sample size was too small and in general irrelevant to the purpose of this exercise. Also, I didn't tabulate playoff scoring because I'm not sure how playoff scoring would translate to regular season.

Anyways, if you took the time to read this then thanks a bunch and feel free to leave and thoughts or criticisms.

[jasdou]

You are suggesting pursuing Blues players. I already own Johnson and would like to acquire a forward. Which player do you expect to be the most productive for the rest of the season? Boyes? McDonald? Tkachuk?

[Harnish]

First off, thanks Metaldude for putting this together!
Jas, I think McDonald and Boyes are the only guys of those 3 worth pursuing, and I think McDonald may be the easiest to obtain because of his performace so far (although he's on a bit of a streak right now and Boyes isn't, so that may be a factor). I don't think you could go wrong with getting your hands on either one of those guys, but if I had to pick one, I'd say McDonald.

[Grapes]

Metaldude26, Thanks for the hard work. I have made an offer for McDonald as soon as I heard about the coaching change.
Happy New Year, cheers Grapes

[metaldude26]

The easiest answer is everyone. Basically anyone seeing PP time or top 6 minutes should start putting up bigger numbers. Don't worry if it's not right away, it took a while but the Flyers are starting to turn the corner. I wouldn't expect the change to be instant for the Blues either.

Boyes, McDonald and Kariya are easy targets because they are top 6 guys with a history of point per game production. Kariya's injury hurts him, but all the easier to buy low. Boyes, McDonald and even Backes have started to pick it up already recently so this should help them. I think the exception is Tkachuk because he has been about as consistent as you can expect from him. As alluded to in other threads the new coach is good with the youngsters, so expect to see Berglund used better. Same goes for Perron. Oshie has been fairly consistent as well but he's worth going after.

The biggest favour you can do yourself is check the game logs over the next few games for them. Who ever you see logging those big minutes is gonna be a beneficiary of an offensive turnaround. My money is on the big 3 Boyes, Backes and McDonald. And Kariya when he returns. Also give Colaiacovo a look.

[jasdou]

Awesome. Thanks metaldude! I was just asking because for some reason these guys are all sitting on the wire in one of my shallower league. I might just drop Fleischmann to pick up McD then.

[JagrBomb]

you the man!

[slopoke]

Nice work!! Thanks. I notice that Columbus didn't improve much after their change to Hitchcock, and also find this years numbers for Columbus to be telling quite a story. Unless things change in a hurry, I can't see how Scott Howson can keep letting this go. Another caoch whose antics wear thin on the players, and who doesn't handle the young players well.

[metaldude26]

Hitchcock is the number one reason I've never jumped aboard the Filatov train. You can't argue with what he's done for Nash's game but I find it laughable that this guy hasn't busted 90 points yet, let alone 80. I think this team could be really good with a coaching change. The talent is obviously there but for whatever reason things aren't clicking. A midseason coaching change would likely help them turn it around although I think goaltending could still be an issue. I found that the teams where a change really didn't help them so much, had some inherent flaw. They were usually all devoid of talent or were too young to respond very well.

[Shoeless]

Nice work Dude - it's stuff like this that really make this place Primo for fantasy hockey poolies.

[Jenken]

nice job Metaldude!

congrats on the 15000th shoeless

[islefan31]

Nice work Dude...I've always thought that was the case and now with raw data it makes me feel more comfortable rather than going on a gut feeling.

[PC_269_]

Yeah, metaldude, this was fantastic;

I added Backes to my pool, because I need RW PIM's anyway and he's got a few tonight, and more for the future. This place rules for fantasy hockey.

[93213]

Thanks MetalDude.

Good luck on buying low on Blues. Even a week ago I wouldn't have moved my Boyes or McDonald, but now? Forget about it!

[BDog]

MetalDude YOU ROCK!