I am not a JT early draft buyer. I am very leery of conjecturing him to be a top tier player, even three years out. The talent where he has landed cements that.
Living in Calgary, I haven't had much of an opportunity to watch JT over the years except for international competitions. Unfortunitely, he reminds me of another junior stud we got to watch here in Calgary. He set rookie scoring records, was a tremendous one dimensional goal scorer, had limited speed and a questionable work ethic. JT scares me because he reminds me of Pavel Brendl.
Brendl led the WHL in 98-99, was second in 99-00 and was selected immediately after the Sedin sisters. It's hard to ignore JT's junior stats. In 06-07 he finished 2nd in league scoring behind Kane and ahead of Kostitsyn, Gagne, Little, Ryan and Stamkos. In 07-08 he finished third ahead of Stamkos, Bailey and Hodgson. In 08-09 he led the league.
It's hard to argue with JT's production, but one common traits among the best is that they have the ability to bring out the best in their teammates and they are almost always the hardest workers. Gretzky said something along the lines of 'the only thing that beats hard work is hard working talent'. I'm not convinced yet that JT has the work ethic to match the talent. If he does, he still doesn't have the talent to match Crosby, Ovechkin or Malkin, but he can get to the next tier.
Even if he does get to this next tier, it's unreasonable to expect him to get there within the next 2 years.
Tavares also reminds me a lot of Brendl - always in the right spot at the right time, great finisher, absolutely terrorizes weak opponents with his skills. Of course, I thought Brendl would be good for 40 goals a season when he was drafted. I think the same of Tavares, hopefully I'm right this time.
I think he will end up being a 'Heatley-light' type of player in a few years. 40-45 goals, 40-45 assists. Hopefully they move him to the wing so he has more fantasy value .
I do think he will really struggle next season. He won't be able to create space like a Stamkos or Duchene who have the blazing speed and I think he will be an easy target for other teams' top D to try and wash out. I'm not saying 25 points struggle, but I think he will be around 40-45 in 75 games with a good chunk of those on the PP where he should find some space to do his thing.
I think he's pretty smart and will figure out new creative ways to find space in a year or two and should be well on his way to his potential.
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