N. Suzuki / Celebrini ++ trade scenario

[CAN-AM Commish]

Hey all,
I have two trade offers pending my response.

The setup is 16 teams h2h category Dynasty league.

Scoring: G, A, Pts, SOG, Hits, Blocks, FOW, TOI for skaters
4C, 4LW, 4 RW, 6 D and 1G

I would trade 1st overall ( Celebrini ) and the 14th overall and Alex Debrincat
I would acquire Nick Suzuki and Jared McCann

The other trade is : Nick Suzuki for Celebrini, 14th overall, Alexander Holtz and Sebastian Cossa.

So its

Celebrini ( 1st overall pick )
Debrincat
and 14th overall pick

for

Suzuki
McCann

My starting forwawrd roster (defense not listed as the trade involves forwards)is:

C- McDavid
C- Matthews
C-Larkin
C-Suzuki( if I do the trade)
W-McCann
W-Connor
W-Holtz
W-Joseph
W-Kyrou
W-Wood

I also have my goalie tandem of Hellebuyck and Oettinger

Do we like the trade? Or should I seek moving Celebrini for help at the wing?
Or just straight up hold Celebrini and slot him in the C spot where I would have Suzuki and hold Debrincat?

Do I do either of the two offers?

[TheNewKid]

Considering u have McDavid and Matthew's ur competing now, and Suzuki is a categories machine. If I'm trading 1st overall it is not to address needs, it would be for the best player available. I think suzuki has further upside than what he has shown with an established floor. Love celebrini too but unsure of how he will do for a year or two on a bad sharks team.

[weezer]

Am I dumb here or does this seem way off base? Obviously you want to be cautious about buying too much into draft hype, but Celebrini has a much higher ceiling than Suzuki and while Suzuki may yield more immediate rewards, it hopefully won’t be too long before Celebrini catches up. I get that you have McDavid and Matthews so to some extent it makes sense to go “all in” but I just don’t think the spoils here are worth it and I’d rather stick with what you got knowing you have a young core with a long contention window.

side note: how the hell did you get 1OA in a 16 team with those forwards and goalie tandem???

[CAN-AM Commish]

Am I dumb here or does this seem way off base? Obviously you want to be cautious about buying too much into draft hype, but Celebrini has a much higher ceiling than Suzuki and while Suzuki may yield more immediate rewards, it hopefully won’t be too long before Celebrini catches up. I get that you have McDavid and Matthews so to some extent it makes sense to go “all in” but I just don’t think the spoils here are worth it and I’d rather stick with what you got knowing you have a young core with a long contention window.

side note: how the hell did you get 1OA in a 16 team with those forwards and goalie tandem???

Good question. In h2h it can be a trick pony. I always seemed to lose by a very slim margain and I landed in the bottom 4 teams of the league and then won the lottery hahah.

[zambronies]

I much prefer what you currently own!

Celebrini won’t hit Suzuki numbers for a couple of seasons, but once he hits his stride he’s the player you want.

Then there’s the fact that you’d also be giving up DeBrincat. Outside of the FOW category, I wouldn’t be superseded to see Suzuki and the Cat alternating which has the better season going forward.

This is an easy pass for me.

[Bubba55]

Hard Pass for me.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

For me these offers honestly both seem brutal. Don't consider giving up Celebrini unless it's for something far better than anything you're currently looking at.

[Pengwin7]

I'm thinking equal is:

Nick Suzuki+
for
Celebrini


That said... if you (as holding Celebrini) happen to be dominating this league... winning championships... stacked roster...
Then yeah... it's every other GM's collective duty (not a collusionthing , just smart league play) for every GM to make you pay through the nose to add another solid vet.

[When I look at your roster - I'm thinking "nobody else is having fun in this league... except you..." - You should have to pay through the nose here... how the eff did you wind up with Celebrini anyway....]


In one of my leagues, the top GM continues to "win" trades...
And I just feel like having a stern talking-to with some of his trade-partner GMs.
Like... "please let superGM's players age-out to retirement without giving him anything... this benefits ALL of us..."
RealVibes

[TheNewKid]

Surprised at the lack of respect for what suzuki already is. I'm cool standing pat too, but I'm not gunna pretend celebrini is a garuntee better fantasy asset. I learned that the hard way when I had to hold lafreniere after his hype. If celebrini is a 50 pt guy for a couple years while suzuki keeps improving with a young Habs team I don't see you getting similar value down the line. Suzuki is leveling up with caufield and slaf as well. I can see 90+ points to go with good peripherals. All comes down to ur situation.

[Pengwin7]

I learned that the hard way when I had to hold lafreniere after his hype.

re: Celebrini.
What he did in NCAA as Freshman shouldn't (IMO) be lumped in with what guys like Yakupov & Lafreniere did in their big OHL & QMJHL years.
The age 16-20 CHL leagues are a little more apt for mis-eval-ing a future NHLer.

I have a lot more faith in player success in the NCAA & KHL (better leagues that the CHL leagues).

Celebrini will be MUCH MUCH better and more guaranteed than Lafreniere.
The Q is very commonly a high O, good-goalie league.
The defense/team-defense there is the worst of CHL leagues... and sometimes the stats don't translate.

(Yakupov came out of an insanely weak OHL - at the time... it was right on the fringe when a lot of young talent was taking scholarships to the NCAAs and people still expected everything in the OHL to be a "lock".)
(I mention Yak because he came out of a similar CLEAR #1F vs MULTIPLE GOOD D draft... or so was thought. 2012 draft sucked hard. Nobody knew at the time.)

Celebrini is gooood.
Really, really good.
This is not anything close to Laf... I'd say he's halfway between Laf-and-Bedard.


If somebody gave me the odds... I'd probably bet $3000 to win $1000 on Celebrini being a better NHLer than Suzuki (given both players healthy).
I would also take 3:1 payout on $1000 on Suzuki to win $3000 being better.
But, i.e. that's where the line is.
I think there is 75% odds that Celebrini will be better player - evenso in just his 3rd year.


I also think William Eklund has a game that is going to absolutely *pop* once he plays with talent.
I'm seeing Celebrini to be sort of Anze Kopitar type point-producer... pretty big points quickly - very consistent top15 NHL scorer.
Tavares is another comparable I see a lot... though I think that's a bit high.
[not comparing Celebrini to Kopitar - simply that I think the point-production will be similar in rise.]

[Belexus75]

1st for Suzuki would be fine but no way I add to that…

[zambronies]

Surprised at the lack of respect for what suzuki already is. I'm cool standing pat too, but I'm not gunna pretend celebrini is a garuntee better fantasy asset. I learned that the hard way when I had to hold lafreniere after his hype. If celebrini is a 50 pt guy for a couple years while suzuki keeps improving with a young Habs team I don't see you getting similar value down the line. Suzuki is leveling up with caufield and slaf as well. I can see 90+ points to go with good peripherals. All comes down to ur situation.

This is an ok assessment when discussing a Suzuki for Celebrini swap. The missing piece, is the original poster would also be adding DeBrincat. The Cat will have a lot more SOG, equal or more hits, and similar blocked shots. Oh, and the Cat has already had a couple of seasons that matches Suzukis career year this season in points.

[Bubba55]

I'm not certain what folks think Suzuki's upside is? He has 5 full NHL seasons under his belt and his best season was last year's 77 pts in 82 gms played. Dobber has his upside at 87 with a 3 YP of 75 which is pretty much where he is now and sounds about right IMO. I think Celebrini's "situation" has already been discussed, if you think it's all hype, fine, but an awful lot of very knowledgeable hockey folks agree he is the real deal. Now throw DeBrincat and a decent draft pick into the mix and you have a trade that I'm not touching with a 10 ft pole.

[Dave Muir]

I own Suzuki and I think he will continue tu put up more points as Caufield and Slaf getting better and maybe Hudson arrive on PP1.
I think he will put a lot more points than Celebrini for the next 4-5 years so I would not trade him for the young prospect. But with Debrincat in the trade, I think that I would accept pretty easily.

[Nylander]

I’ll add I offered Makar for Michkov and Cellibrini and got turned down. With not even a counter so I don’t think this is close at all