Tanking for McKenna

[loppantorkel]

So, he's being talked about as potentially a generational player (popping up every three years or so now), maybe Bedard-like, maybe better, maybe worse. James Hagens will likely get plenty of attention for the 2025 draft, but I assume we'll see Chicago, SJ and likely one or two other teams at the bottom next year fighting for him.

San Jose might still be at the bottom in 2026, but is Chicago still there? Which are the teams likely to be at the bottom in 2025/26 season when McKenna will be drafted?

Aside from predicting which teams will have a shot at McKenna, it might be interesting to see some sort of projection for which teams are in for a few tough years. People had very pessimistic expectations for Vancouver just a year back. Are Philadelphia going up or down? Will Chicago, Columbus and Anaheim finally have left the basement in two years? Which top teams will have collapsed? Is it time for Pittsburgh to tank for their next generational player? Washington?

Pick your 3-5 teams which will have the best chance to get McKenna in the 2026 draft.

[Feenom]

Pittsburgh
Anaheim
Utah.

Leafs should but they focus too much on regular season success. Maybe Montreal sneaks in there too.

[loppantorkel]

Voted for:
SJ
Chicago
Anaheim
Seattle
Pittsburgh

[Bubba55]

I went with San Jose, Chicago and Seattle. I think both Washington and Pittsburg are going to struggle but as long as Ovy is in Washington and Sid is in Pittsburg, I think they will do all they can to be competitive.

[newfcollins]

I could be wrong, but is Chicago done with the lottery for a while? They won last year to get Bedard, and won this year to get the second overall pick. I think you can only win twice in five years, but I'm not sure if that just applies to first overall. If second overall counts, Chicago can't win for four more years.

[Belexus75]

Be something else if he went to Chicago...two cousins at top level together would be cool....

[GavinC]

I could be wrong, but is Chicago done with the lottery for a while? They won last year to get Bedard, and won this year to get the second overall pick. I think you can only win twice in five years, but I'm not sure if that just applies to first overall. If second overall counts, Chicago can't win for four more years.

Was curious about this, so went looking: it’s any upwards movement. So if they “win” but stay where they would have drafted anyway, it doesn’t count. The team has to move up at least one spot for the condition to kick in.

[newfcollins]

Just curious where you saw this. Everything I saw the year the Habs won it was that it counted as winning the lottery, even though they didn't move up. I just didn't know if second spot counted.

[GinFizz]

Boston could use him

[Belexus75]

Boston could use him

every team in the league could, but i don't see Boston being bad enough in 2 years....only really old guy there is Marchand, everybody else is good to go at high level for a while.

[GavinC]

Just curious where you saw this. Everything I saw the year the Habs won it was that it counted as winning the lottery, even though they didn't move up. I just didn't know if second spot counted.

https://records.nhl.com/draft/draft-...ottery-formats

"No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period."

Maybe it's worded poorly, but that says to me that staying put doesn't count. Would be interesting if there was an official tally somewhere counting the lotto wins that count towards the penalty.

For the poll though, can I write in for Toronto? :P

[Belexus75]

https://records.nhl.com/draft/draft-...ottery-formats

"No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period."

Maybe it's worded poorly, but that says to me that staying put doesn't count. Would be interesting if there was an official tally somewhere counting the lotto wins that count towards the penalty.

For the poll though, can I write in for Toronto? :P

i think think is moot point anyhow, i do not think Chicago will have great lottery odds in 2026. I think they take big step forward in next 2 years. Maybe not playoff worthy yet but they won't be bottom 5 in 2026 imo.

[Pengwin7]

SJ looks like they'll be grounded for another 2 years, I think.
ANA... I don't think they quite have the players to take steps... I think they'll be there.
Arizona - with their D - I think they could re-bottom-out - unless they really throw cash at some D that wants to come to Utah.
Calgary is probably the team that has a shot to fall into this bottom group.

CHI is going to go north - and fast - it just always happens with teams that land the Crosbys and McDavids, always.
MON is definitely heading up.


The East - too - WILL have somebody that will be low... just from odds/schedule.
And that team is potentially Philadelphia - especially with how they trended post SeanWalker trade.
I don't see Tortorella as long-term fit.

Maybe Michkov DOESNT come over soon.
Maybe the young D is just way, way too raw for marking NHL pro forwards next year.
And maybe, secretly, their best player - Travis Konecny - is ready for a new location in his UFA expiry summer of 2025.
Especially if they can't/don't re-sign Konecny...
PHI could be a very, very, VERY bad team in the 2025-26 season.

[newfcollins]

https://records.nhl.com/draft/draft-...ottery-formats

"No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period."

Maybe it's worded poorly, but that says to me that staying put doesn't count. Would be interesting if there was an official tally somewhere counting the lotto wins that count towards the penalty.

For the poll though, can I write in for Toronto? :P

Technically, you still need to win the lottery. So the Sharks won this year, for example as their numbers came up in the draw. At least, that's how it's been explained to me in the past.

[loppantorkel]

Technically, you still need to win the lottery. So the Sharks won this year, for example as their numbers came up in the draw. At least, that's how it's been explained to me in the past.

They brought it up in the last 32-thoughts podcast. Supposedly staying put doesn't count as a "win", even if they "win" in the lottery. Given the wording of it all, there seems to be a lot of wiggle room...