Svechnikov

[jman]

Hey all, I'm wondering everyone's take on Andrei Svechnikov. I'm looking at the categories in my signature.

What do people forecast from here from here on out?

What I'm seeing:
- he has managed to keep his HIT rate pretty constant at about 2.2 per game in the past three seasons, so that's reliable.
- his shot rate this past season has decreased by nearly 1 shot per game (!)
- his ice time hovers around 17 min per game, which to me doesn't scream bona fide first liner.
- he's never clipped at a point per game pace.
- he's never played 82 games (Dobber has him as a bandaid boy trainee).
- he has JUST past his 400 game BT. (This is attractive to me.)
- he has great pedigree as a 2OA behind Dahlin.

I'm asking because I'm thinking of trading for him but the GM that is selling is selling him as a FIRST LINE ELITE(ish) POWER FORWARD.

What are people's thoughts on him. Apologies if the question seems vague.

Thanks in advance.

[Canucks_fan18]

Look what he's doing in the playoffs. I have to choose between him and Guentzal as my last keeper. I really like Svech but Brind'amour doesn't play him enough. Last night for instance season essential on the line and he's under 17 minutes. It might be the reason why Carolina never makes it deep. Needs to lean on his stars more.

[IRSlotsFull]

Svech is 23 - his best years are still 3 years away.

I'd say he's a driving factor of the line he's on - and often gets moved to L2 to push it, but that's similar to Boston's use of Pasternak and you wouldn't call him anything but elite.
Whether or not he pushes past the early career injuries... I'd bet on 'yes', but it is a bet. Missing an increasing number of games year-over-year the past 3 season is why they're trading him - make no mistake - and is concerning to all interested parties (fantasy and real life).

It depends what the cost is for if it's a worth while move on your part, if he fits well with your categories (do you do so poorly at assists his don't help or so well that they won't matter), and the age of your guys (you'd like everyone on your roster reaching their peak performance at the same time).

Generally, I like Svech as a 'buy' option, but I wouldn't 'sell the farm' to acquire. If you can sell a slightly better player who was older - that'd be ideal for acquiring.

[RizzeeDizzee]

The three most recent wingers - other than Svech - to score between a 70-82 point pace in three or more seasons by age 23 are Patrick Kane, Johnny Gaudreau, and Patrick Laine. I think we can all agree that Svech does not compare to Kane since he also hit the point per game mark twice in that time, so that leaves the other two......eeesh

[Canucks_fan18]

The three most recent wingers - other than Svech - to score between a 70-82 point pace in three or more seasons by age 23 are Patrick Kane, Johnny Gaudreau, and Patrick Laine. I think we can all agree that Svech does not compare to Kane since he also hit the point per game mark twice in that time, so that leaves the other two......eeesh

In fairness to Johnny hockey he did have an 84, 99 and 115 point season after that but has been inconsistent his whole career and looks like a shell of himself now.

I still think if he just got an extra two minutes per game you would see roughly 10 more points and we would be talking about a PPG multi cat stud.

[Pengwin7]

Carolina has to pay on RFA contracts to Seth Jarvis AND Martin Necas this summer.
Guentzel and Teravainen are both UFAs. I don't think either returns. (I think Guentzel is going to Florida.)

This would be great news for general minutes and deployment for Svechnikov.



There's things to LOVE about Svechnikov - obv the multi-cat in fantasy - but he put up 52pts in 59gp this year... with only 17 being ppp.
That's 35 even-strength points in 59gp.

That's almost a 50pt pace for even-strength points.
And I think he could click on CAR with 25-30ppp some day.

There were a couple 4-forward CAR PP1 units that Svechnikov was not include on.
Both had Teravainen.
I would think, if BOTH Teravainen and Guentzel leave, then the 4F PP1 for CAR is very consistently Abo/Jarvis/Necas/Svechnikov (a unit that didn't play together at ALL this year).

Or... maybe there is a reason they didn't play together! Yikes!
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/...L&situation=PP
^In link above, one can search... but Necas AND Svechnikov almost never appear together. (Do they play the same spot on PP?!? I'd have to think yes for this to occur like it did.)

[Bubba55]

Am I right in assuming that your league does not have a specific scoring cat for hits? It's combined with Blks? That hurts Svech's value. I am not concerned about his production across all the scoring cats moving forward. In multi cat formats he is and will remain a must own. However, without a specific Hits scoring cat some of his value is lost, in a pts only he is not elite by any means. I would pay to acquire him based on this, not on his value in a full multi cat. If the other guy doesn't see this and the price is not adjusted accordingly, then walk. Bottom line, put an offer on the table and see where it goes.

[LuigiC173]

a great own that gets hurt. You cannot pay a supreme price with that risk. Drive that home with his owner and if they maintain the high price walk away.

[dejeanneret]

He's a tough case to trade for now if you're looking for value. As you note, he's young and has produced at a nice clip so far. More importantly though, everyone sees his draft pedigree, and everyone sees what he's capable of.

It seems like the entire fantasy community has been expecting Svech to take that next step into the truly elite for a couple years now. And that means that, although your fellow GM who's selling him as a bonafide first line elite'ish power forward sounds to be including some untapped potential in that price, there is very likely to be someone in the league who agrees and is willing to pay very near that currently inflated/forward looking asking price is (unless, of course, it's really just utterly insane).

I think it's worth exploring, and agree with LuigiC173 that pushing back a bit is warranted. But ultimately, the value of a given player is whatever a single other person in your league is willing to pay. And I do think Svechnikov will have a suitor who will keep his "value" somewhat inflated compared with the risks outlined above.

So as with most trades, it ultimately comes down to what that asking price is and whether paying it (i.e., losing whatever assets you have to ship out) to bring in Svech makes your team better or worse as a whole. Sometimes teams are a match and can afford a slight "overpay" because the high cost comes from an area of strength and surplusage, whereas that same cost to another team would be debilitating.