Off Season Re-Construction - WWYD

[IRSlotsFull]

Hey & thanks for checking this out.

My league is a 12-Team Tiered Keeper League : like a heavy contract re-signing coming up and losing players in the NHL, our league sees top ranked guys leaving back into the draft from every team year over year - the better your team, the better players you will drop (probably).
My team is falling HARD this off season with how my players finished - aka tough to break up by acquiring acceptable drop players in the off season (for T1 you'd need someone NOT keeping a top 18 player - there are 1, maybe 2 available) - but at least it walked away with the trophy this time.
Good news is I have all my picks except round 3 (snake draft).

Yahoo rankings with G, A, PPP, +/-, GWG, Pim, Shots, Hit, Blk & W, SV%, SVs, GAA, ShO
Tier 1 - keep 2/4

2 - JT Miller

4 - Forsberg

9 - Rantanen

18 - Aho

Tier 2 - keep 4/6

23 - Ek

37 - Weegar
40 - Fox
51 - Bratt
65 - Barzal
75 - Doughty

Teir 3 - keep 5

87 - Forsling
88 - Kopitar
91 - Hagel
99 - Palmieri
(rest of team in sig)

T1 - I can't realistically get more than 1 person over Aho to drop him down to T2, & selling off anyone moves Ek UP into this tier... less than desirable.
T2 - Feels a strong 3, then.... I think I can sell 2 from here to move Forsling & Kopitar up (and they likely become drops).

*GK's = keep 1 - so Oetter is my dude for the foreseeable. * -edit to add GK info

Selling Rantanen would bring back the highest value (probably a pick & player), but then you lose (arguably) the best guy on the team & it might cost Ek up to T1...
Should I try a fire sale and move JT Miller, Forsberg, and Ek (would be able to keep Fox in T2, but maybe not Weegar...)?
Who do you consider untouchable? Who do you consider trade bait?

So, what would you do?

[Eskimo Brother]

Where do goalies fall in your keeper options? Oettinger has to be a keeper, so what does he cost?
Also, was Stutzle so far down because of his injuries?

Without moves, you keep Miller, Rantanen, EEK, Fox, Bratt, Barzal, Kopitar, Hagel, Pinto, ?Oet and Stutzle?

That means one of Doughty or Forsling you have to trade by the end of it, as they don't impact keeping Kopitar in Tier 3. Though even Kopi wouldn't be a huge loss to throw back, as long as Hagel is still tier 3. - All of that assumes no tier 1 movement.

Depending on the cost to bring someone in above Aho, to push him to tier 2 and keep him over Barzal, that would be big. Especially since you really only see it as three big guys in tier 3 anyways. Maybe there's some value for someone in selling off a guy like that for a pick plus Barzal and Doughty as guys to push their tier 3 group down.

Selling off in the tier 1 group and eventually ending up with EEk in the top group doesn't make a lot of sense, and probably makes you a worse team next year. If you sell Aho, EEk, and Forsberg for Draisaitl or Matthews, then maybe that makes you a better team, but aside from that you're probably best just tinkering at the back end and accepting your manageable losses.

[IRSlotsFull]

1 GK kept is outside all other players (skater slots) - and yes, Stu down from injuries (finished the year on IR - rank 163). Hertl also on the roster (rank 440's) is (I think) an interesting piece, but the T3 I'm not too worried about figuring who's the bottom of the pile; they're all 'fine' [Pinto, Frost, Hertl, D.Joshua, Henrique]

Rantanen with Miller I don't love, just because JT isn't as shot heavy, and I worry about synergy with the rest of the team - If you're light on hits players, those multi-Cat. guys aren't going to bring in the payoff week to week.
I like Rantanen better with Aho (mostly for his age) or Forsberg (though his injury history worries me). But Miller is probably the more consistent top performer.

Thanks for the extra thoughts - selling 3 for 2 is something I've started looking at (aka Aho, Ek, & Forsberg for Matthews + a player above rank 37 to drop). Appreciate the ideas!

[Eskimo Brother]

Makes sense. And yeah, I missed Hertl, he would be a keeper too.

[Bubba55]

I'll be honest, I'm just not following what you are asking and how this league actually works. Let's start with this:

"Rantanen with Miller I don't love, just because JT isn't as shot heavy, and I worry about synergy with the rest of the team - If you're light on hits players, those multi-Cat. guys aren't going to bring in the payoff week to week.
I like Rantanen better with Aho (mostly for his age) or Forsberg (though his injury history worries me). But Miller is probably the more consistent top performer."

I have no idea what this actually means and why it is apparently a significant concern for you. Perhaps you could elaborate, and perhaps better explain you league your team and what it is you are actually asking... please ... I'm just not a switched on as Eskimo (:

[IRSlotsFull]

So cats league - they're usually punitive to guys who lack shots.

Shots contribute to categories: 1. Shots (obviously), 2. Goals, 3. PPP, 4. GWG, 5. Assists, and 6. +/-
(trying to rank those most to least relevant for shots : +/- matters here, but you can take it with some of the league's more responsible players)
Leaves off just PIM, Hit, Blk in my league.
So Shots are important.

My lowest shot combo, of top 4 players, is Miller with Aho [410], but #2 is Miller with Rantanen [465]. (best is Rantanen with Forsberg [618]).
A swing of 200 shots for just 2 players over the course of a season is significant to cost that category weekly - I'll lose shots more often than win, on average.
Equally, shots is the hardest category to catch up, since your opponents likely have rostered all the players who shoot - since it affects so many categories, these players are ranked higher and highly valued. Real numbers:
MacKinnon with 405 on the year, Pasternak 382, Matthews 369... we get down to the high 100's before you find a player who you might be able to roster; then it's Sean Couturier 192 (10% rostered), Atkinson 175 (3% rostered), Evangelista 172 (2% rostered)...
The reason these guys are available in +90% of leagues is they aren't effective at other categories, or they are harmful to other categories (like Atkinson's -22).

So if I go with Rantanen and JT Miller, I feel like I'm conceding Shots.

What they're good at: Assists, PIM (unexpected), PPP, and Blocks (relative to the others in top 4, but I wouldn't call blocks 'strong' between them).

However Miller with Forsberg becomes stronger than Miller with Rantanen in:
G, GWG, Shots, Hits, with being exceptionally close in A, +/-, PIM, PPP, Blk

Miller + Forsberg, based on last year's numbers, is a stronger tandem because they are stronger together in similar categories. They synergize, they sync, they click...

Rantanen + Forsberg may also be considered stronger, as they're the top 2 for goals & shots, though lower on +/-, Assists, and Hits.

If it were just having highest ranked players, in a cats league you still (often) lose because your players' strengths aren't complimentary...
You'd expect, head to head, Kucherov and McDavid as a tandem to destroy Trocheck and Ehlers...
On average, they'd tie.
G, A, PPP, & Shots - Kuch & McD
PIM, GWG, Hits, Blks - Troch & Ehlers
"+/-" was a tie (based on last season totals).

The difference between 2 players, on a roster of 25 can be mitigated to a degree, but Shots is king. Its category league quick sand. The harder you try to take shots, the deeper your team might sink (losing other categories). So if you aren't going to take shots - dont. That's my philosophy anyway.
So starting off with categories that synergize from your top players should set the tone for what the rest of your roster is going to need to either compliment or compensate.

I see it as:
Keeping Rantanen means lean into shots and fight in the quicksand shots becomes - where everyone fights for Shots players who don't hurt too bad in other slots.
Keeping JT Miller means fighting against that Shots category by pushing harder into the other categories - Hits, Blks, PIM, +/-
Keeping Forsberg - you run risks of injury, obviously lowered performance, and wondering if NSH can support the guy with the tools they have... Orielly & Nyquist are 2nd liners across a lot of the league.
Keeping Aho - Burns 2 of the other players or pay the king's ransom to try to keep him.
Selling any of them probably loses Ek.

Aho & Rantanen are youngest, so keep them, drop Miller & Forsberg - then keep Ek. 3 players aged 26-28 who were top 25 ranked this year, it sounds so great.
But Aho/Rantanen was one of my worst combo's across all categories - Can you realistically expect BOTH to do better next year?

JT Miller & Forsberg seems (almost) an INSANE choice. Drop Rantanen & Aho!? But these 2 guys sync. They're probably my strongest tandem across all categories (1 they're best, 5/9 they're 2-3, and they're never the worst at anything). At 31 & 29, they have good years left, but... selling Rantanen, Aho, and Ek (because he would just move up to T1 and I'd drop him) hurts. I can find players above rank 40 to keep Fox (esp selling those ), but it feels like the start of the movie 'Moneyball' where the A's lose all their top stars and are looking at how to move forward. Is there anything worth trading Rantanen, Aho, and Ek for that will keep the ship from sinking?

I'm just looking to get input on the mess (albeit a good mess to have) that my top 4 create, because other people's thoughts & input (especially the crazy ideas) may work better, or at least spark new ideas for me.

Does that help?

[Eskimo Brother]

Love the breakdown and the different approach. The one hole I would poke in it, is Forsberg, and how unlikely he is to A) repeat the numbers from this year, and B) actually be healthy enough to even be in a position to replicate them. While it does make sense trying to optimize not just the players, but how they produce together and win weeks for you, picking players as keepers who perform worse the following year is a surefire way for a team to take a step back, so it definitely has to be balanced.

It's tough to come up with a perfect approach from here though without seeing exactly who other teams have, because that dictates so much of what would be available to you with the trade moves and possible flexibilities.

[IRSlotsFull]

Forsberg is an anomaly, sure; BUT how far will he fall?

At 30, he's not much older. With a full year off (where I held him on IR+) his injuries are hopefully behind him (misses 12 games?) and his line mates can only improve if Nashville makes an acquisition.
He drives his line, unlike some wings you'd question 'who are they without X'.

No, I don't think he's the best of the bunch, but how far of a step down is keeping him and selling off Miller, Rantanen, or Aho, for more than I could get in return for Forsberg on the block...
Or is he just a drop?