Enapai wrote:
Count me in for the Semin side, and rather easy I say.

Even if Havlat and Afinogenov play 82 games and each hits 90 points, that is 180, meaning Backstrom, Semin, and Michelek only need to get 60 apiece to even out the trade this year.
A lot of people get this impression in an uneven (player wise) trade. That is not the case. The reason why I say this is because Havlat and Afinogenov side, yes will have one less player going to them, however that will open a roster spot for another player. So you would have to add player X into that and add (conservative) 40 points. This brings the point totals up to 220, meaning that Semin, Backstrom and Michalek would need to get ~73 points each to make it even statistically.

Enapai wrote:
I put the chances of Havlat and Afinogenov playing 78+ games for each of the next three (3) seasons at less than 10%.
I would put that % at about 1% myself. That is the reason why I would want to be on the Semin side of the trade.