Need a starting goalie for 2019 or 2020

[lusshouse]

Hello Dobberfans,


So I'm in this full-keeper salary league (not cap hit... salary, which means that I'm paying Gostisbehere 6M this year, and will pay him 3.25M in 2020).
We get to keep all our players for as long as they have an NHL contract and that we respect the cap.

We have 14 teams and we start TWO goalies. After 12+ seasons going at it, most GMs now figured out that having 2 starting goalie is quite the task. I surfed on young Crawford / Rinne for a while, and had even drafted Holtby when he was 3rd on the depth chart because Dobber said he'd be the starter sooner than later, and traded him for other valuable assets. I've been a top-5 teams for close to 10 years.

Last year, I thought it was the year Saros would take over as #1 (and was strapped under the cap) so I dealt Rinne for Steve Mason and a pick.

My situation this year is the following : Crawford, Markstrom and I must drop Mason because he doesn't have an NHL contract.

--

I need to find somebody who'll be my starter next season or the one after, as Crawford is in limbo but is still under contract for one more year. He might resign, but not sure where, and at what price (and what is health will be like) and Markstrom might have the hold on the #1 spot for one more season or two before Demko takes over.


You can guess that the most logical candidates are already taken :
Carter Hart
Tristan Jarry
Linus Ullmark
Jon Gillies
Juuse Saros
Thatcher Demko
Linus Soderstrom
Ville Husso
Philipp Grubauer

... just to name the relevant ones (looking at you, last round pick chosen Mackenzie Blackwood)



I own a 1st round pick and 2x 2nd round picks this year and I MUST choose at least a goalie to ensure the longevity of my top-5 (and money making) streak.

Here are my candidates :


Carter Hutton, BUF -- Former backup, now already #1, unless he already loses his job to Ullmark.
Aaron Dell, SJ -- Has the potential to be the next Darling/Talbot/Hutton when contract expires in two years.
Malcolm Subban, VGK -- With Fleury re-signed, he loses a lot of interest
David Rittich, CGY -- A guy I had never heard of before last season.
Eric Comrie, WPG -- Seems like Hellebuyck solidified himself as a real #1
Jack Campbell, LA -- Is he the heir of Quick for the Kings?
Alexandar Georgiev, NYR -- Hears he did good last year, but he's not the top NYR G prospect
Ilya Samsonov, WSH -- Raw talent, but could he make Holtby expendable when he's UFA in 2 years?
Adin Hill, ARI -- But Raanta just resigned, so...
Felix Sandstrom, PHI -- The fight for top dog with Carter Hart might not be the gamble I'm looking for
Charlie Lindgren, MTL -- Will not overtake Price's job any time soon.
Filip Gustavsson, OTT -- Can't wait to own a #1 goalie from a bottom tier team


Other names I had never heard of before seeing them in the Prospect report or the Draft Guide : Petersen (LA), most DET goalies, Francouz (COL).

Now, I'm being sarcastic and all. But I'm not looking at sitting on a potentially great goalie in 5 years. Crawford is not any younger and Markstrom isn't a stud. I need someone to be a goalie sooner than later.

Here's my ranking at the moment :


Tier 1 from my list :

Samsonov
Gustavsson
Dell
Hutton

Tier 2 :
Whoever else beyond that I can draft in Round 3 or 4.
Georgiev I guess is next best, due to Lundqvist being old and Shesterkin being in KHL and all
Sandstrom
Hill

Tier 3 :
Draft them all and pray Hail Mary


Any input is welcome.
Otherwise, thank you for reading my rant.
I appreciate your moral support.


--

ps : I tried trading for a goalie, but everybody now feels like goalie prospects is the new trend. No one wants to let them go even for a crazy good price.

[evans334]

Personally, when I look at prospect goalies I try not to consider the team / system they are a part of.
If the goalie is good, he'll play somewhere eventually.

Think Bishop & Vasilevsky a couple years ago or Fleury & Murray.
Teams made moves to make it work.

That being said from your lists I like Gustavsson and Samsonov based soley on talent, but their paths to the NHL are probably several years out.
But Hutton probably has the best opportunity to grab a spot and hold it down, considering is past track record.

[CaptainCally]

Samsonov, Gustavsson and Hutton all good options.

Hutton - if you need sort term solution go for him. He can help you this year if he can live up the expectations in Buffalo.
Samsonov - he is the best of the bunch, I don't know how he is available, but somebody like Soderstrom is taken. He has the toughest obstacle in Holtby.
Gustavsson - I heard he is great and he only has the aging Andersson and Condon in front of him. There is some opportunity in Ottawa but Gus is very young to have immadiate inpact at NHL level. He needs at least two full season in the AHL.

If you can get two of them or all three that would be the best.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Tier 1 from my list :

Samsonov
Gustavsson

These two would be the ones I'd target. Samsonov might be the #1 goalie prospect in the world right now, he should be your #1 target. Gustavsson has a clear path to become a starter in Ottawa and his upside is very good as well. It's unlikely either one would be a starter in a year but I doubt any of the other names gets there at all. If goalie prospects are so valuable in your league, you should be able to trade them in a year and acquire a starter with them.

[stevegamer]

I think you need Hutton in your situation. You need a guy who can get you starts now & next year. Dropping Mason is no real loss.

I rank them:

Tier NOW:
Hutton - is he as talented as the hot prospects? No. Is his team starting goalie right now? Yes. That puts him in a tier which is defined in a different way. His path to a starting job is: show up on time, be professional Buffalo, don't get arrested or suspended, and don't get hurt in preseason.

Tier 1:
Dell - Immediate help, proven NHL caliber. May or may not get a starting job, but useful at worst.
Samsonov & Gustavsson - the highest end prospects.

Tier 2:
Subban - Vegas went out to get him, and believes in him. Likely backup being groomed to be the next guy. His time may not come, but again, useful.
Georgiev - This guy is getting ignored. He's behind a few elite prospects, but he seems to have played well when he's had the chance internationally and in the NHL. I think he's a NHL caliber goalie.
Rittich - Has a shot, but has to compete for it.

[lusshouse]

Samsonov - he is the best of the bunch, I don't know how he is available, but somebody like Soderstrom is taken. He has the toughest obstacle in Holtby.


He signed his first contact this offseason, so that's why.

Same reason why Sorokin (NYI) can't be drafted (or Cale Makar, for example). They do not have a contact.


Thanks all for your input.
I have 11th, and 15th overall and will try to get Hutton / Dell with one and Samsonov / Gustavsson with the other pick.

[chuckcouples]

My advice is to never use top end picks on goalies. Why do you ask? Because they more often than not, do not turn out. I just looked back through my collection of Dobber Prospects guides and here are some numbers.

The 2012 edition had 2 Top 25 Goalie lists which had a total of 29 different goalies listed. Of those 29 goalies, 5 are now starting goalies (Allen, Jones, Vasilevski, Gibson, Andersen), 5 of them are NHL back ups (Campbell, Kuemper, Grubauer, Mrazek, Zatkoff). That is a very small percentage of goalies who 5 years later have had any fantasy impact. The others were almost all completely useless. Dobber's top 5 that year were Eddie Lack, Jake Allen, Viktor Fasth, Scott Wedgewood and Jeff Zatkoff. Of the 5 goalies that became starters, 4 became clear #1s less than 2 seasons ago. So if you did pick the right goalies out of the list of 30, you had to wait 3 full seasons before they gave you any return in your fantasy leagues. That was not an unusual year as it is the norm.

2013 Dobber Top 5: Reto Barra, Calvin Pickard, Mark Visentin, Eddie Lack, Magnus Hellberg --- Goldman was much better as he had Gibson, Vasilevski, Andersen, Berra and Lack as his top 5.
2014 Dobber Top 5: Gibson, Vasilevski, Jarry, Stolarz, Svedberg
2015 Dobber Top 5: Hellebuyck, Brossoit, Makarov, Murray, Subban

Goalies are much too volatile to waste a high end pick on in dynasty leagues. If you want the starts now, then picking one of the guys who might be a starter this year makes sense. If someone like Aaron Dell was not drafted last summer, I would use my last pick of the draft this year to take him. His value has not likely gone up at all since he led the NHL in GAA and SV% two years ago and did not do that last year. I would not use either of your first two picks on a goalie as the chances of any of the other guys you mentioned becoming starters in a year or two are almost non existent.