Re: Does this mean anything for Seattle's NHL chances?
Originally Posted by
Pengwin7
I think QC is still ahead of Seattle for consideration.
But I do believe they will get their teams in very, very different ways.
The NHL will want to get to 32 teams - because its just a more stable scheduling model.
But they need to get to 16 teams in both the East/West.
I think, ultimately, we'll see one team re-locate - which will be to QC, a team that could use a return history - as Winnipeg did.
And the NHL has to figure out WHO that team is.
QC will want to be in the East... and no team currently in the East is going to accept a shift to the West (too much travel, viewing times too late for fans).
This means that QC is unlikely to get in via "expansion". QC will have to wait for an Eastern team to belly-up and re-locate... but I think that will happen.
So - there's a waiting game for QC... but they are certainly first in line for re-location, especially if it is an Eastern team (FLA, CAR, NYI, NJ - being strongest four for consideration, IMO, in that order).
Arizona is always a re-location discussion team - but being in the West, doesn't solve the 16/16 issue.
And I think, ultimately, we'll see an expansion team in Seattle at whatever they (NHL ownership group/Bettman) set the fee... which they now have a great precedent with the $500m from Vegas.
But there's a waiting game for sure on whether the East will have a team financially hit the toilet.
The NHL will eventually probably get to a 4x8 NFL-type divisional model or a 8x4 NBA-type divisional model:
Pacific: VAN-EDM-CGY, WPG ....... ANA-LA-SJ, SEA
Central: ARI, VGK-COL-DAL ....... MIN-STL-CHI, NAS
Depending on travel, Seattle, Arizona, Winnipeg, and Nashville could all shift.
Arena planning + build takes about 3 years, though.
So 2020-2021 is earliest for Seattle.
Q: Will it happen, IMO?
A: I say yes. It felt very certain, to me, that Vegas was going to get a team. I think Seattle is a much more stable place than Vegas. Seattle has done a really good job supporting their WHL team. The arena sharing is a good model for just about every place not named Atlanta. And there is overflow fans from Vancouver - and I don't think Vancouver will feel threatened by this the way Toronto2 situation has been discussed.
This is how I see it occurring as well. The timing of the arena build would work almost perfectly in my mind.
Vegas is coming this year and the NHL won't want to rush another expansion team immediately. a team in 2020-21 or 2021-22 (doesn't that sound like 15 years away???) would make sense.
Allow the Knights to get somewhat stable hopefully, have a chance to do a full, careful review of what went right and what went wrong with the expansion process.
Allow the NHL to get a solid ownership group in place, confirm the arena is done, or almost done, give a season of marketing to the team to build hype.
Then Seattle enters the league and joins the Pacific, one of Vegas or Arizona moves to the Central. I don't see the Jets moving to the Pacific because time zones are so important to the NHL regarding travel and TV viewership.
As soon as the league announced 4 divisions I thought it was apparent that 8 x 4 = 32 teams was the end game.
Also agree with everyone that QC is easy to tease and abuse and they'll come back begging for more. They are building an arena one way or another so they are always available for relocation. I think Bettman does everything in his power to ensure that any relocation occurs after the Seattle expansion. It's hard to argue your league is a great financial success with a franchise tag of $500m when you have teams being forced to relocate. The other issue with relocation is that Arizona can't move to the East. Carolina and maybe Florida would be fine relocations, with maybe a divisional re-alignment.
Long, long, term perhaps Seattle is added, Carolina goes to QC and then Arizona finds a home in Cleveland.
Given the NHL's current team locations and setup I'd say Seattle as team 32 is a looking pretty good.
I don't follow the NBA but does anyone know if these arena builders have anything in place to get an NBA team? I know the Supersonics left to Oklahoma City but don't know if there are any struggling teams financially looking to move to Seattle.
I find it hard to believe that this deal is being built on the hopes that a professional team will play in it.
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