Nice stuff J-P! Thanks for sharing!
Ps: Do you think Rasmussen has the potential to be fantasy-relevant?
I see him as a McCarron with slicker hands (3rd liner); maybe I'm missing something though.
OK, now the drafts in all my leagues have ended or at least moved forward so much that all these players have been drafted already, so I can publish my personal fantasy ranking now. I have the league details in my signature if anyone is interested.
This ranking is sort of a general ranking, not specific to any league. I would make small adjustments to it based on the following things:
- Which stats are used
- Roster size & dynasty vs keeper - if long-term projects with high upside can be kept or if I should target NHL readiness more
I doubt I'd move anyone more than 3-4 spots, though. With such young prospects, I focus more on who has offensive upside and who is likely to make it in the NHL (NHL certainty is a big factor for me) as I believe focusing too much on depth charts and peripheral stats at this point would be a mistake. But that's just my opinion.
So, here's my top-24 fantasy ranking of the 2017 draft class. I'm sure there are no big surprises there but feel free to give me hard time if you don't agree with me. I tend to push D-men a bit further down the list because they're so difficult to project at this age. I don't have any facts to back this up but it just feels like forwards are easier to project at this age, especially for fantasy hockey purposes.
#1 - Nico Hischier, C
#2 - Nolan Patrick, C/RW
#3 - Cody Glass, C
#4 - Elias Pettersson, C/LW
#5 - Casey Mittelstadt, C/LW
#6 - Nicholas Suzuki, C
#7 - Gabriel Vilardi, C
#8 - Owen Tippett, RW
#9 - Cale Makar, D
#10 - Miro Heiskanen, D
#11 - Michael Rasmussen, C
#12 - Lias Andersson, C/LW
#13 - Kailer Yamamoto, C/LW
#14 - Martin Necas, C
#15 - Kristian Vesalainen, LW/RW
#16 - Klim Kostin, RW
#17 - Timothy Liljegren, D
#18 - Erik Brannstrom, D
#19 - Eeli Tolvanen, LW
#20 - Juuso Valimaki, D
#21 - Filip Chytil, LW/C
#22 - Robert Thomas, C
#23 - Jake Oettinger, G
#24 - Jason Robertson, LW
Nice stuff J-P! Thanks for sharing!
Ps: Do you think Rasmussen has the potential to be fantasy-relevant?
I see him as a McCarron with slicker hands (3rd liner); maybe I'm missing something though.
Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO
C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Cooley, Novak
W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka
Minors:
F: Fantilli, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay
Yes, I think he could be the next Mark Scheifele / Ryan Johansen - meaning a guy whose draft year numbers weren't great but the NHL upside is definitely there. I think his floor is a very good 3rd line center but if he continues developing perfectly, he could end up being the steal of this entire draft. I wouldn't reach for him right now but once the top ten players are gone, he's definitely a target of mine after that. Right now, I'd put his upside at 30-30-60 but if he continues developing properly, that could go up from there.
This quote from Grant McCagg at Recrutes.ca really stuck with me:
A couple more quotes from the same man:It appears that Michael Rasmussen has become the whipping boy this season for the advanced stats aficionados as I have gotten plenty of feedback on how having him top five or even top seven is much too high. I have received several tweets suggesting rather strongly that his goals stats are inflated because he got a bunch power play goals, so he mustn?t be very good 5-on-5, and will have a tough time doing anything of note at even strength in the NHL.
When I brought this up with an NHL head scout last night his response was ?They do NOT understand PROJECTION!! It is not what they do today but what they can do as a pro.?
All I know is that in the 15+ viewings I had of Rasmussen I saw a 6-6 center with soft hands that can skate, pass, shoot really well (his release is elite) and score goals. He was on pace for 25 ES goals?.for a raw 6-6 center?there is absolutely nothing wrong with that total.Rasmussen will be a top-ten pick in this year?s draft,,.and if my projections are correct?he will one day be a 6-6 center who consistently scores 30+ goals in the NHL. That will make him a very rare breed, indeed.
M.Rasmussen - I damn near punched my lap top when the Wings selected him over G.Vilardi. But then again, I don't get paid to be a scout or talent advisor (yet, lol).
10 Team 5 Keeper Roto....Stats are:G,A,+/-,HITS,PPP,SOG,FW and W,SO,GAA,SV%:
C-A.Barkov,V.Trochek,B.Horvat
RW-A.Svechkinov(LW),T.Bertuzzi(LW),P.Laine(LW)
LW-B.Marchand,E.Kane(RW),B.Schenn(RW/C)
F-L.Couture(C)
D-K.Letang,D.Nurse,M.Seider,N.Pionk
G-I.Shesterkin.C.Hellebuyck
BEN-E.Merzlikins(G),K.Kahkonen(G),J.Bratt(LW/RW),T.Toffoli(LW/RW),B.Jenner(LW/C),R.Andersson(D)
IR-J.Vrana(LW),N.Ehlers(RW/LW)
Thanks for the list. Your opinion is always backed with plenty of good information, so id put a good bit of value on this list.
Love the support for Rasmussen. I took him in my draft and wasn't sure but he sounded good and in Det they seem to know how to develop well (for the most part).
18 team H2H Keeper League
G/A/PPP/SHP/GWG/SOG/FOW/Hits&blks/W/GAA/SV/SV%
play 4c/8w/6d/1G (2min start)/6 bench/
C: Hughes, Zacha, Howden, compher, Tierney, Frederic
W: Gaudreau, Schwartz, M.Tkachuk, Fabbri, Bratt, Yamamoto, Wahlstrom, Okposo, Heinen, M.Folingo, Hinostroza, Mcginn
D: Hughes, Ceci, Pelech, oleksiak, Holden, Poolman
G: Markstrom, Oettinger,
P:Rossi,Bowers,Heponiemi,Kupari,Wise,Dorofeyev,Fir stov,Clarke,Fortin,holloway,Nygard,Aberg,Rasmussen ,Elynuik,M.Jones,Chlapik,Platzer,Bracco,Kuokkanen, Lind,Liljegren,J.Roy,Montembeault,Raaymakers,Woll, prosvetov,Larmi
Good stuff. Thanks for posting J-P.
10 Team, 60 Player Roster
G, A, PTS, PPP, PIM, BLKs, Hits, +/-, Shots, W, GAA, SV%, Saves
C- JHughes, Trocheck, RThomas, Zegras, Norris, Bennett, PLD, Stephenson, Danualt
RW- Raymond, Stone, TWilson, Toffoli, KJohnson, Nyqvist, Zary
LW- Keller, Schmaltz, Bunting, Skinner, Barbashev, Duclair
D- QHughes, McAvoy, Doughty, Heiskanen, LHughes, Mintyukov
G- Shesterkin, Demko, Andersen, Kahkonen, Levi, Tarasov, Annunen
Notable Prospects- Nikishin, Kulich, Leonard, Wood, Perreault, Lekkermaki, Ostlund, Othmman, REvans, L-Heureux, Ivanov, Murashov
Didn't get down to my picks JP.
I am curious - of the 2nd tier of centers, would you expect anything in the way of peripherals (hits and blocks) from them? I'm talking Glass, Pettersson, Mittelstadt, Necas(although I don't see him at center in the nhl), and maybe even Thomas. Safe to assume Vilardi and Rasmussen will be big in peripherals, Suzuki too.
I'm not talking big numbers, but for example, Scheifele and Johansen, who are both their team's number 1 center, get a few hits and blocks (blocks - mostly Johansen), as even though their main purpose is to score, a number 1 does need to do a bit more as well. So are we talking about Scheifele/Johansen-type production, or are we talking Phil Kessel numbers (meaning only points - that's all you're going to get from them, which are my expectations from Tippett)?
GET WELL SOON, DOBBER.
Glass is the best bet from that group to provide decent peripherals but it's just too early to know for sure since they're all physically very raw and haven't played against anything close to the competition they'll face in the NHL. A lot of guys can hit a lot in junior but can't do it anymore at the NHL level (or at least it takes them 5 years before they start doing it). Pettersson had 7 hits in 43 games this season, so he's the least likely to start hitting a lot in the NHL. But of course he was playing against pros who are physically more mature than him, so that's also a factor.
Very few forwards provide that many blocked shots anyways. That's why I always target D-men who block a lot of shots so that I don't need to worry about my forwards doing it.