Re: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?
Originally Posted by
RizzeeDizzee
EB - did you see my post in the keeper forwards subforum? When Neal, Kessel, Kunitz, and Recchi scored 65+ with the Pens they each had between 22 and 30 PPPts, plus averaged eons of time on PP1. For 2017-18 I feel pretty confident in saying the Pens' PP1 will be Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, a healthy D, plus either another healthy D or - if they go according to longstanding form - a big, hulking forward, which for present purposes would be Hornqvist. Neither Sheary nor Guentzel fits into that mold/mix, so they'll likely be on the outside looking in. Yes - I realize that's how it was for them this season, yet there's a far cry from doing what they did in 2016-17 and stretching that out to somehow amount to 65+ points. Among the 281 instances of just 60+ scoring (not even 65) among forwards since 2010-11, only 14 corresponded to seasons where a forward scored fewer than a dozen PPPts. If I raise the points threshold to 65, the total number of instances shrinks to 176, of which a mere 5 corresponded to forwards who tallied fewer than a dozen PPPts in that same season.
We're not disagreeing with each other - I just want to make sure folks pause to think about reality versus upside.
I hadn't seen that, and it's a very good set of numbers to bring up. Either way, I am still high on both players, even though they may be limited a bit right now. It isn't too hard to get some inconsistent PP time during the season though with Malkin, Crosby, Letang and Hornqvist likely to miss a full 82 games between them. And if one player is filling in the spot on the top PP, I think it will be Guentzel.
The other thing I will say is that talent wins out, and Guentzel is a very talented kid. He will get points one way or another. We definitely aren't disagreeing, I think I'm just a little optimistic with the immediate upside.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)