Stammer

[Mallinos]

I took Stamkos late in my draft this evening but it was not a very deep draft. Only 80 forwards were taken. I snagged Stamkos based on potential plus hes a fellow Markham boy. I\'m starting to regret it because there are a lot of guys out there who I think will surpass his points totals. I mean a rookie getting 70+ points in his rookie season is very uncommon. Should I drop him or keep him for the potential....if his potential is even that high?

[mister_mcgoo]

is this a one year league? in 1-yr his value is virtually irrelevant in a league your size i would think, otherwise hes a smart acquisition

[mapletreemarty]

Who\'s available that hasn\'t been drafted???
Also it depends when you drafted him???

Also, don\'t forget...only 39 players put up 70 or more points in the NHL last season, if anyone is to repeat Paddy Kane\'s performance from last year it\'ll be Stamkos and all that firepower that surrounds him in T.Bay!

Edit: the 80th leading scorer last year put up 55 pts., no matter what happens with Stammer he\'ll surpass that number.

[mister_mcgoo]

mapletreemarty wrote:

Edit: the 80th leading scorer last year put up 55 pts., no matter what happens with Stammer he\'ll surpass that number.

first year though? that seems a tad ambitious, I think he\'ll be around 45-50 pts

[BrianSTC]

I think Stamkos is fully capable of 55 points.
He is all but guaranteed the second line center spot. He will get his share of power play time as well.

From last year 4 rookies managed 54+ points.

There is no question Stamkos is an elite rookie, so it is not unreasonable to expect 55 points.

[mapletreemarty]

It would be disappointing if Stamkos was not 1 of those 4 rookies to hit 54+ pts. this year. He has all the tools and it looks like Tampa Bay will finally have the skill to really open up their game in the new run and gun southeast division??? Skill is one thing, now here\'s hoping they can gel together throughout training camp and the preseason

[mister_mcgoo]

You may turn out to be right, I wouldn\'t be shocked if he put up such lofty numbers. But historically its rare for rookies to put monster numbers in their first year. Here are the 1st forwards taken the last 10 years and the pts they scored in their rookie years:

Kane: 72
Jordon Staal: 42
Crosby: 102
Ovie: 106
Eric Staal: 31
Nash: 39
Kovalchuk: 51
Heatley: 67
Stefan: 25
Lecavilier: 28

Now Crosby and Ovie are abberations in my mind, they are the best two forwards in the entire league and they happened to be drafted within a year of one another. Stamkos is good, but he\'s Kane-good, he\'s not Crosby/Ovie good. Plus Crosby, Ovie and Kane all walked unto crap teams where they were immediately made 1st liners, Stamkos will not be afforded the same opportunity. All I\'m saying is temper your expectations a bit and you won\'t be disappointed. With the exception of Stefan thats a pretty awesome list of talent.
B)

[rticinelli]

Nice list magoo... can\'t really ignore other first round forwards, though (Malkin, for instance).

Personally, I think Stamkos is somewhere between Kane and Crosby as far as ability. I think Modano\'s career arch would be a good one to follow when trying to predict Stamkos\' future production. With that in mind, a 75-point rookie season seems reasonable to me.