Paajarvi, Beaulieu, Armia, Samuelsson, Pageau, Schenn, Foligno can all go in the garbage. All overhyped and not great NHLers.
Brainstorming some guys that we’ve been waiting forever to see fantasy impact from that have disappointed so far, but maybe aren’t beyond making an impact as early as 14-15.
Ones that have been pumped/targeted/high picks who haven’t made much or any NHL/fantasy impact:
Paajarvi
Ellis
DeHaan
Rundblad
Connolly
Bennett
Larsson
Zibanejad
Baertschi
Beaulieu
Armia
Forsberg
Grigorenko
Samuelsson
Pageau
Guys who I thought they would be better quicker fantasy-wise than they have been, and have been around:
Frolik
BSchenn
Couturier
Niederreiter
Wilson
Franson
Berglund
Gardiner
Kassian
Conacher
Brunner
Silfverberg
DeKeyser
Wiercioch
Myers
Marcus Foligno
Brendan Smith
Who, if any, makes a (more) useful fantasy impact for 14-15 or a big leap and thus should be targeted? Likewise, who can we throw on the trash heap now, with some confidence? Feel free to add anyone you’ve been waiting “forever” on that I’ve missed. Points and/or multi-cat discussion welcome.
I thought it would be useful discussion so we can all target a late round flyer or two and mint some gold.
12 Team H2H. Full Keeper
G/A/Points/PIM/PPP/FOW/SOG/HIT/BLK/W/GAA/SV/SV%/SO
Malkin, Seguin, Perry, Monahan, TJohnson, Wheeler, Lucic, Nichushkin, Drouin, Datsyuk, Hossa, Holland, Bouma, Nieto, Colborne, Prust, Jooris
Subban, Savard, Dillon, Murphy, Prout, Petrovic
Lundqvist, Rinne
Paajarvi, Beaulieu, Armia, Samuelsson, Pageau, Schenn, Foligno can all go in the garbage. All overhyped and not great NHLers.
One of our big problems as a fantasy hockey society is that we see one flash from a guy and somebody starts pumping his tires.
Then everybody jumps on board and then all of a sudden... the guy is the "real deal".
Good mercy, I've seen all these guys listed before - for sure.
The only guy I've ever invested in from this ENTIRE second list is Berglund (whose game I like very much and still do... but he's still buried).
[FIRST LIST is to.be.determined, but I'd estimate that only 1 in 10 from that group pans out to be fantasy relevant in standard 12-team 9F/5D leagues]
In general, I'll wait before using up a valuable roster spot on a prospect.
My general rule of thumb:
#1 - #3 overall entry draft picks: Typically safe, and will be fantasy relevant in 2-3 years.
#4 - #10 overall entry draft picks: 50-50 shot of being fantasy relevant in 4-6 years.
Beyond #10... there's probably a 1 in 10 shot of picking the needle in that haystack... which isn't worth the odds in most (most!!!) pools.
Context is everything though.
For people playing in 24-team 20-player leagues... many of these guys will have solid value.
But too often, people jump on board the kids instead of picking from a decent veteran in a good situation (ex. Pascal Dupuis or Justin Williams)
Everyone is overhyped, except the depth guys. Very few become great NHLer's. So you could have a list of 400 guys right now and say they are overhyped and you would be right 380 times.
So relatively speaking, with that in mind, I believe that Beaulieu, Samuelsson and Schenn are doing everything expected on the high end, and are on track to do well. As well as "on track" can mean in this context. And I don't expect anything from them in the next two years either, so let's not get down on them in 2016 when they do that very thing (i.e. nothing fantasy worthy). In 2017 it will happen, if ever, and if it doesn't feel free to release the hounds! But to reach this conclusion now isn't fair - with the caveat that you are probably right (based on my stated 380 out of 400 theory), we're talking in relative terms so the conclusion isn't fair
Regarding the list - I've never seen hype over Wiercioch or Dekeyser. In fact, with Dekeyser I've been surprised by the offense I've seen so far. But they don't belong on that list.
One guy I would add to the list though, is Bogosian
The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi
I guess that's fair. I've personally never been a fan of Schenn. I think he's a pretty poor top 6 NHLer that gets forced into that role based on perception off one world junior tournament, a tournament I particularly put no stock in as he was the best player on a pretty weak Canadian team and it was a pretty weak tournament in terms of talent. IMO, his draft slot should have been lower and his talent level is far below what most people regard him as. Not really good enough to even be a 2C, not really having a skill set to play 3C
Good stuff Pengwin7.
In fantasy hockey, everyone wants to be to the guy who drafts the 'next one'.
I think that is why we are so high on prospects and young guys.
We're all seen that GM who drafted young guys and 3 years later, bam!, he now has an elite roster. But most of the time prospects won't become the stars we wish we had drafted so high!
Weekly H2H points only (Year 9 - 2015-16)
12 teams limited keeper (keep 6 + 1 Rookie)
13 round draft - Unlimited Trades - No Waivers - No IR
4 Team Playoffs (last 2 reg. season weeks)
Rookies are 23 years old or younger in the draft year and never reached 60pts (forward), 40pts (defense), 25 wins (goalie)
Start : C RW LW Utility D D G
Points : A - G = 1 pt W = 2 pts SO = 1pt
C - S.Stamkos, J.Thornton, K.Turris, D.Stepan
LW - O.Palat, B.Saad, A.Burakovsky
RW - B.Wheeler, T.Toffoli, C.Atkinson
D - E.Karlsson, S.Gostisbehere, C.Fowler, A.Ekblad, A.Larsson
G - C.Hellebuyck, D.Dubnyk, A.Niemi, K.Lehtonen
Grigs has been around only two years, drafted at #12 and any delay in development can be attributed to former [thankfully] management's mishandling his development. I certainly wouldn't forget about him yet.
Marcus Foligno is a third line power forward. Not sure what anyone was expecting from him. Throw Kassian into that heap too.
Brendan Smith is still coming into his own and def worth another year/two stash in multi cat leagues.
Frolik and Schenn were once VERY over-hyped...I agree. Runblad too.
The rest...meh.
@SmittysRant
Schen gets better every year. He's going to start shining this year with Hartnell gone.
Tweet @ Me brah!
10 team Auction Keeper-Year 7, No FAs, Points only, Weekly Lineups
C-Backstrom, Stepan, Desharnais
W-Ovie, Pacioretty, Kadri, Nyquist, Granlund, Schwartz
D- Chara, Wideman, Kronwall, Phaneuf
G-Varlamov
Bench: Schenn, MSmith, Yakupov, Hartnell, Gionta, Williams, Carle
Farm: Barkov, Kucherov, Monahan, Trouba, Klimchuk, Poirier, Nieto, Toffoli, Dumba, Gormley, GReinhart, BSmith, Aberg
Proud owner of entire first round in KPL 2015 prospect draft
I love this thread.
I play in a very deep 30 team dynasty salary cap league where we dress 4 forward lines and 6 dmen each week. I am trying to move Justin Williams this off-season. I am asking for 2 2nd round picks. All the other GMs think I am an idiot and am asking way too much for him. GMs for some reason value prospects and draft picks way more than they do established NHL players. Williams was 106th in the NHL in points for forwards last year which is a very good 2nd line player yet people would rather have their draft picks. From 1995 - 2005, 31.1% of 2nd round draft picks played 100 or more NHL games and only 65.7% of them played a single game. (http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/2...-analysis-luck) I really don't understand how the reason GMs think this way but it makes it pretty easy for the smart GMs to acquire NHL talent using prospects and picks.
blah, blah, blah...bird in hand, 2 in bush
Didn't see any goalies on this list so I will throw Jacob Markstrom's name out there. Still only 24 so for a goalie he has time to turn it around. There are likely a few fantasy GMs who paid a boatload to acquire this guy a few years ago and still nothing to show for it.
This is the biggest problem I've had using Dobberhockey as a resource for years now is how much hype you have to sift through just to get to the bottom of the true value of a player. If I had a dollar for every overhyped prospect I read about on here I wouldn't need to win any of my money leagues, I could just coast
I wish there was some better middle ground between reality and upside but so far I haven't found it. Best advice I can give you is to bring your jumbo sized salt shaker with you into all the prospect forums
Guys I've been burnt badly by: Frolik, Filatov, Backlund, Grachev, Colborne, Paajarvi, Rundblad
Guys I'm probably about to be burnt by in the near future: Yakupov, Markstrom, Ellis, Kuznetsov, Kassian, Coyle
This is pretty much THE reason the best strategy for fantasy hockey IMO is to once you have a good team, keep trading as many picks and prospects for established players as possible. Let people sit on a prospect for 4 years while he gets fantasy relevant while you use the last good legs of NHL regulars. On top of owners having to marinate prospects to get the benefits, half the time they bust and never pan out for those GMs anyways.
14 team keeper Sim league
40 player 100 year cap,
C: Giroux, Barzal, Getzlaf, Koivu
LW: Schenn, Labanc, Neal, Mikeyev, Benn
RW: Voracek, Kucherov, Wheeler, Garland, Burakovsky
D: Keith, Weber, Suter, Edler, E. Johnson, Stralman, Cernak
G: Raanta, Korpisalo, Miller,
People have already mentioned David Rundblad, but I know that he has been traded in our leagues at least five times in the past two seasons, and was recently dropped by the team who owned him last so I expect he'll get drafted late by yet another sucker in our group. Not me!
Bottleneckers (12/16 in 2022)
16 team, points only. G: 2-W, 4-SO.
Top 9F, 4D & 1G . Keep 15, Max 23
F: J. Robertson, J. Hughes, Tavares, Lafreniere, Cozens, Newhook, Teravainen, Domi, R. Strome, Laine, Rossi, Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti
D: Bouchard, McAvoy, Morrissey, Heiskanen
G: Vasilevskiy
I'm still optimistic about Kassian. Best points per 60 minutes on the Canucks last year (not that that meant a lot last year). With more ice time he could be a legit fantasy contributor, and he should get that chance next year.
i was really sold on rundblad and am still hoping.
i guess when you use an early pick to reach for a guy you really want him to pan out.
10 team Full Keeper Roto League
4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.
C= eichel,horvat,malkin,kuznetsov
LW= forsberg,kreider,lee,b.tkchuch,hertle,granlund
RW= reinhart,radulov,hoffman,laine,hayes
D= doughty,ghostebehere,karlsson,jones,klefbom,dahlin ,skjei
G= price,murray,grubauer,georgiev,ullmark,samsonov
under250gp=nichushkin,tuch,mathesson,marino,pujuja rvi,hosang,terry,andersson,j.hughes,patrik,crouse, zadina,podkolzin,k.miller,nedeljkovic,kravtsov,hay ton
--G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,PIMS,+/-,SOG,hits,FOW,blks-Wins,GAA,SV%,saves,SO