An interesting interview with Tim Murray & his thoughts about the Sabres
http://www.wgr550.com/pages/19208171...entId=15387373
Buffalo, NY (WGR 550) -- Had the opportunity to spend some time with Sabres GM Tim Murray and many topics were covered so let’s get to it.
Murray said there’s a strong possibility that they’ll use the compliance buyout on Ville Leino. Murray says they must still cross the t’s and dot the i’s and have one more conversation with the owner about it. The buyout period starts either June 15th or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Finals end and runs through June 30th.
Murray maintained that it’s going to take two drafts to build this team. He admitted they are not a Stanley Cup team this year so the draft has to be the focus.
Murray thinks he may be able to acquire another 2014 first round pick. He said getting a 2015 first rounder will be much harder. In his discussions with other teams, 2014 first round picks are available.
Murray knows he has to get to the salary cap floor so he’s not afraid of taking contracts on from other teams if he can get what he wants at the top end of the deal. It’s just absorbing a contract that another team can’t.
Murray considers all the high picks that the Sabres have as huge assets, but he said once again that if he can get a highly touted player who’s already two or three years into his development, he would trade some of these picks.
Murray went from our meeting to meeting with his staff and scouts. He said as far as whom everybody in the room thinks is the second overall pick in this year’s draft, there’s a pretty good consensus. He doesn’t like to give his opinion first because he doesn’t want to influence the room. He said he know exactly who he wants, but wouldn’t say if it agrees with the staff and the scouts.
Murray feels defenseman Aaron Ekblad will go number one either to Florida or any team that jumps up there. He said he’s heard at least four teams are trying to get to number one to take Ekblad.
Murray said a few teams have talked to him about trading down in the draft, but he said they won’t make him an offer. The GM said he will go no further down than 7th overall.
Murray said his overall philosophy is for young players to properly develop either in junior or the AHL. He wouldn’t commit if the players Buffalo takes 2nd overall will go back to junior. He did admit that player would really have to excel in training camp.
Last year’s 8th overall pick, Rasmus Ristolainen started the season in Buffalo and when Ted Nolan arrived, was sent down to Rochester. After 34 games with the Amerks he came back and was already a much better player and said he learned a lot in the AHL. Ristolainen will be 20 in October and Murray said, “Could he play in the NHL this year? Yes he could, but would another half season in the AHL help him, absolutely.”
Tyler Myers was also a topic of conversation. Murray said, “Myers is a huge asset, but nobody is too big to be traded. As we get better, he’ll get better. He’s not going to be ‘The next guy’.” Murray felt too much was put on Myers after he won the Calder Trophy.
Players must have qualifying offers by June 30th. After talking to Murray there’s no question in my mind that Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Chad Ruhwedel, Cory Conacher, Luke Adam and Matt Hackett will get qualifying offers. As far as Jamie McBain goes, I know Murray and Ted Nolan weren’t at all happy with his play and it would cost $1.9-million to qualify him. Murray said, “No final decision has been made.”
I asked if he had to see more of Adam and he said, What is he going to show me now that I haven’t already seen? He is who he is." Murray’s also not sold on Hackett yet, but as he said, “We’re not going to give away these assets for nothing in return.”
Of all the goalies in the Sabres system it seems to me that Murray likes the future of Nathan Lieuwen the best. The kid was taken in the 6th round of the 2011 draft, but Murray feels he’s shot upward since he’s arrived in the Sabres organization. He also likes his size which approaches 6’6. That doesn’t mean he’s down on Jhonas Enroth or Michal Neuvirth and he is approaching both of them with an open mind.
The Sabres have four unrestricted free agents in Henrik Tallinder, John Scott, Matt D’Agostini and Zenon Konopka. Murray does not seem interested in any of them. He said, “I’m not thinking about them at all right now. We could revisit that in the future, but I don’t know.”
Just in case any of you have Ottawa trading Jason Spezza to Buffalo, Murray said that the center probably doesn’t fit what they’re trying to do right now.
Murray said that Chadd Cassidy will be back as the Amerks coach.
Murray also had a lot of very good things to say about how he and his staff use analytics. The GM said he didn’t use them until he got to Buffalo and has a full department that breaks it down for him.
WGR’s analytics expert Matthew Coller will take it from here......
Thanks, Paul.
It is clear the Sabres’ GM is all-in on analytics.
Last year, Ron Rolston brought in a former Notre Dame player/math major named Jason Nightingale (official title is Hockey Data Analyst) to help the coaching staff with their statistical analysis. Nightingale and the Sabres’ analytics department worked to design a system for Murray that works in conjunction with his scouting system.
Here’s how it works, according to Murray: His scouting rankings rate players on a 1-7 scale, with seven being elite and one being the poorest rating. The reason it’s 1-7 is because of the number of standard deviations: Four being an average player, five above average, six a star, seven elite and the same for 1-3. Major League Baseball has used this scale since the days of Branch Rickey, only with 2-8 as the numbers.
What Murray’s staff has done is designed a way to rate players statistically on the same scale. Take a look at how the baseball stats website Fangraphs explains a similar concept. In a way, the analytics folks at the Sabres are figuring out how many Wins or Goals (depending on their formula) above an average player a current member of the roster, free agent or opposition player is worth.
Thursday’s meeting made it obvious that Murray is aware of other analytical concepts such as regression to the mean. He noted that the department has the ability to give a yellow or red “flag” on a player who might either be ripe for regression or a drop off due to age. Murray noted that many scorers see their production fall off around age 30 – which he is correct.
According to the Sabres’ GM, they are not done with the 1-7 scale. He was vague – naturally – but it sounded like player movement tracking and related statistics were on the way.
How much will he use these analytics in decision making? There is no question his scouting eye will be No. 1, but he wants to get all the information possible on a player. If his eye, scouting reports and the numbers do not match up, he said, “then we’ll have to ask questions.”
We cannot judge Murray’s true capability to utilize statistics in decisions until he starts making some actual decisions, but his statements Thursday should be exciting to those who wanted a forward thinking general manager.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, SBennett
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
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