Tarasenko

[fungchen3]

Kuznetsov's style reminds me of a young Sundin and/or Malkin. Not saying he will be close to either player, just talking style points here.

[4horsemen]

It is a little difficult to know for sure why his STATS may have regressed slightly from a year ago as we can't see him play in the KHL. What I do know and can only speculate on is that he is playing for his father/coach and I understand he may not want to give him any preferential treatment. He was getting almost no power play time from what I understand. They also tend to give younger players limited amounts of ice time. Also in the KHL they do not count 2nd assists and I think that Tarasenko is the type of player that will get many of these 2nd assists because of his style. He is a very hard worker who will win the battles in the corners and make the first nice play, which is often more important than the primary assist on a goal. Like I said earlier you can't score if you don't get the puck first.

STATS are all I care about when I'm talking fantasy hockey Well....not totally.....I do agree that players who possess the sorts of intangibles that you've described for Tarasenko have a more surefire chance of landing and sticking in the NHL and I'm certainly not debating that Tarasenko isn't a likely NHLer. You've presented an argument designed to downplay the fact that his production has been disappointing this year, what I'm saying is that I don't often find that players who lose their upward trajectory in their pre-NHL years turn out to be 80+ point players unless there is an injury involved!! I'm not saying not to draft the guy or that he won't be an effective NHLer, just that I think 80+ point projections are way too high. I've followed many Russians through the KHL and tried to tie that production to NHL production and the results aren't good....Hudler (best season 57 points...PPG player in the KHL), Zheredev (best season 61 points), Filatov (no need to bring up his stats and he was nearly a PPG player in the KHL.) These are just a few examples of why people might want to back off of 80+ point projections for a kid who's stats certainly aren't jumping off the sheet. If I was a Tarasenko owner I'd expect 60-70 points and be thrilled if he hits PPG.

[maxpey]

I wasn't trying to make excuses as to why his production is slightly down. You asked why and I tried to speculate why that might be. I may be waaay off. You are actually contradicting youself aren't you? Because you say that stats are all that matter, but at the same time didn't you just say that it is too hard to predict success by just using stats? Hudler and Zherdev had the stats to succeed, but so did Ovechkin and Malkin so stats do matter, but don't mean everything which is why I make the argument regarding Tarasenko's superior intangibles. See below for excerpt from Hockeysfutures who rank Tarasenko AHEAD of Kuznetsov.

1. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW
6’1�, 200 lbs, Sibir Novosibirsk, KHL
12/13/1991
CSS Final Rankings: #2 European skater

An all-around forward, Tarasenko is a gifted, capable offensive player with good commitment in the defensive zone. He’s not a physical or a defensive player, but he has an uncommon will to get back to protect the zone, to get down to block shots and this kind of “dirty job� that is very valuable in the more demanding North American game. But he’s mostly an offensive talent and he showcased his skills in the latest two KHL seasons. He has great numbers for an 18-year-old, scoring 13 goals and 24 points (the same exact amount scored by Ovechkin in his draft year, but playing 10 games fewer) during this season, constantly playing in the team’s top six.

What can keep teams from picking him with a high first-round pick is his commitment to the KHL. He already declared numerous times that he’s going to spend the 2010-11 season with his Sibir Novosibirsk (his father Andrei is one of the team’s coaches), but probably, considering the wave of Russian players coming to America this year and last year, the infamous Russian factor has been a bit overstated.

2. Evgeny Kuznetsov, RW
6’0�, 174 lbs, Traktor Chelyabinsk, KHL
05/19/1992
CSS Final Rankings: #3 European skater

Kuznetsov is an exciting player because of his great set of hands, technique and skating. He is a prototypical Russian forward with a big bag of tricks that makes him a dangerous player in one-on-one situations. He had a busy season, playing in both KHL and MHL (Russian junior league) and in both U18 and U20 WJC. While surely many teams will be impressed by his impressive skill set, many others will probably shy away from his lack of size, lack of defensive play and undisciplined play. He can amass a lot of unnecessary penalties, but it’s a fixable issue, while the other two seem more problematic.


So if numbers are all that matters to you then what does it say to you that Tarasenko equalled Ovechkins numbers in his first year in the KHL while playing 10 games less???!? Stats are all that matter once a player is on your fantasy team, but he needs to get on an NHL team and get the quality ice and linemates to start producing. I was just extremely impressed by how Tarasenko looked and he just seemed like he would easily step in and be a strong player in the NHL right now. I see at least 80+ point seasons from him one day taking everything into account. As noted above about Kuznetsov "lack of size, lack of defensive play and undisciplined play" are HUGE detractors IMO as to whether he can flourish in the NHL.

And I think fantasy owners really do need to take this sort of thing into account when drafting fantasy players - SEE players like Marc Andre Bergeron, Nathan Horton, Alex Semin, Dany Heatley, Brad Boyes, Alexei Kovalev, etc. etc. who all have the necessary talent to be huge fantasy players, but are way too inconsistent due to these intangibles to be considered as such.

Also, I am sure Kuznetsov will bulk up, but he is quite skinny now, so not sure how he can be compared to Malkin or Sundin as they are/were both very powerful players??

[4horsemen]

Maybe that read wrong....should have read: stats are all that matter in fantasy hockey once the player is in the NHL.

I absolutely agree that stats are not all that mater when evaluating prospects.....BUT....people get carried away with point predictions that have very little chance of coming true and I'm simply trying get people to look at the facts before throwing up huge point predictions for a player who didn't excel this year.

As far as your HF post, these guys do not evaluate players from a fantasy perspective! They are evaluating them based on NHL impact, keep this in mind when using them as a resource.

[maxpey]

Maybe that read wrong....should have read: stats are all that matter in fantasy hockey once the player is in the NHL.

I absolutely agree that stats are not all that mater when evaluating prospects.....BUT....people get carried away with point predictions that have very little chance of coming true and I'm simply trying get people to look at the facts before throwing up huge point predictions for a player who didn't excel this year.

As far as your HF post, these guys do not evaluate players from a fantasy perspective! They are evaluating them based on NHL impact, keep this in mind when using them as a resource.

Agreed. People definitely get carried away with predictions based on hype and stats. However, in this case I just love all that I have read and seen from Tarasenko. He played even better than was advertised IMO. And he is still so young with lots of experience playing against men, not in the Juniors where stats are very inflated compared to what happens when a player gets to the NHL which is opposite to what happens when a KHL player comes to the NHL IF they are really good.

The HF people are looking more at overall NHL impact, but if you read what was said by them it very directly relates to their potential fantasy impact.

Nice healthy debate where we could all be wrong!

[lokguin]

just wanted to chime in about the difference on 2nd assists in the KHL versus NHL.

Player A passes to Player B, Player B passes to Player C, Player C passes back to Player B. Player B shoots and scores.

In the NHL for the above scenario, Player A gets the second assist. In the KHL, player A does not. That is how the second assist differs.

[4horsemen]

Out of curiosity I did a quick calculation on the average number of PPG players in the league over the past 5 years and the number is roughly 20. If you then figure that those players were drafted over the past 12 years (not including the 2010 draft) you'd end up back to the 1998 entry draft (which is still very conservative since this doesn't even cover guys like Thorton, Iggy, etc). So 20/12 = 1.7 (hell lets just say two to make it easy). On average there are approximately two players in each draft that we can reasonably expect to put up PPG numbers. Obviously this is completely oversimplified but it does illustrate a point....PPG players are very rare and when they do emerge they're very often top 5 picks (yes there are examples of players who aren't but I'm talking about averages here). When I look at the 2010 draft I see my two players right away. Could there be more.....maybe but I wouldn't bet on it because you'd be betting against the house and I'll stick with the averages. If I then look at St Louis I have to go back to the 2002-2003 season before I can even find one player who scored at a PPG clip and that was Demitra.

I like Tarasenko but if I'm betting the over/under on PPG stats I think you know what I'm taking

[maxpey]

I know what your are saying, but I do think that is oversimplifying things way too much. Basically you are saying anyone in all of the upcoming and recent drafts who are not one of the top 2 offensive players will not be a PPG player. You would be right most of the time of course, but we are talking about one particular player here who has shown many signs that he could be a PPG player or better.

I am sure I read that more than one expert has said that if it weren't for the Russian factor Tarasenko would have been ranked up there in the top 3 to 5 players of the draft. Plus the experts are very often wrong AND there are many many players drafted after the top few picks who became elite players. Would have to look back at some drafts, but i am sure there were far too many to list.

[maxpey]

Actually, looking at years from 2001 to 2005 (need to go back a number of years to get a true picture as players need some time to develop and to get an opportunity) and ONLY looking at first 2 rounds it appears that it is more like an average of 4 to 5 players who will be an 80 point plus player. If I went back further and checked later rounds there would be even more players who make the grade.

2005: Crosby, Ryan, Kopitar, Oshie, Neal, Stastny
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Radulov (if did not go back), Green
2003: Staal, Vanek, Carter, Parise, Getzlaf, Kesler, Richards, Perry
2002: Nash, Semin
2001: Kovalchuk, Spezza, M Koivu, Hemsky (*) and Derek Roy.

Some are not quite there yet, but due to injuries or are very close and they will likely get there.

[4horsemen]

It all depends on how you define a PPG player, I define it as scoring a point in every game played for the season

Players on your list who have never done it: Ryan, Neal, Oshie, Vanek, Koivu, Perry (although he will this year), Kopitar (came very close), Radulov would not be an 80+ point guy, Hemsky will never do it,

Players on your list who have achieved it: Ovechkin, Getzlaf, Spezza, Malkin, Crosby, Staal, Green, Richards, Parise, Semin, Nash (once), Roy (once), Carter (once), Stastny (once)

I will admit that the recent drafts have produced a disproportionate amount of stars but dig a little deeper and the trend will change.

[vandalay]

Interesting debate going on here, I'm enjoying it.

4horsemen, I don't think that the trend from recent drafts will change anytime soon. The post-lockout NHL is different as it gives the highly skilled more opportunity to do what they do best... put up numbers.

[fungchen3]

Damn, a "Tarasenko" thread has over 2,500 views. Good stuff.

[Twiggy]

Tarasenko returned for his club for their last 3 palyoff games, but they were swept. Any chance he follows Orlov's lead and spends some time in the minors to finish up the season?

[Princeton]

Tarasenko returned for his club for their last 3 palyoff games, but they were swept. Any chance he follows Orlov's lead and spends some time in the minors to finish up the season?

I doubt it but I have only a gut feeling that is telling me that. No facts.

Alessandro Seren Rossa would be the 1st to report if he chooses to come over. It would be smart of St. Louis to bring him over and start getting him acclimated to North America.

[DuklaNation]

I agree with 4horsemen. Almost 40% of the top 50 scorers in recent yrs were top 5 picks. About 70% were drafted in the 1st round. Those #'s confirm that a forward outside of the top 5 is not as likely to be a top scorer (this isnt even a PPG Im talking about, its much worse for that). As Tarasenko wasnt in the top 5, odds are against him. As we should know, most draft picks do fail.