Fantasy Mailbag - November 15

[GoalieGuild]

Here you go boys! No radio show tonight due to a Nuggets game, but I still have to cover the Avs game against St. Louis so I'll do my best to get to all of these before I go to sleep tonight. Cheers!!

School of Block coming around noon MST so a little under an hour.

[lektrix]

I have Brodeur, Price, Bobrovsky......Pavelec, Crawford, Conklin. Doing very well in my league, 1st place. Do you see any of my "Big 3" as expendable (if I want to trade to improve other areas in the future) or must I keep them for the rest of the season due to uncertainty?

[rellekretep]

Would you move Luongo for Rask if you wanted to be a contender each year, starting now?

If you could get a Rask + Backes or Seguin, would you even hesitate? League in sig.

[Wayne Bonney]

Thanks for doing Justin, your input is gold!

What are your thoughts on Lundqvist this year ? One thing I've learned in fantasy hockey through the years is that there aren't any sure shot in goaltending. If there are any sure shots Lundqvist would be close to that. Your thoughts....

Also if you do a brief update on Neuvirth and Bryzgalov.I know you said Bryzer seemed to be suffering from energy drain, How were is last outings...

From now 'till the rest of the year, if you would have to choose one between Bryzgalov and Neuvirth, ho would it be ? (Wins= 2pts and Shutouts= +1, no other categories exept assists for goalies)

Thanks a lot again!

[SK47]

I'm not really worried about my stud netminder. But I have just traded my Washington handcuff away( I had a feeling the two of them would always win, but as long as they were playing for the caps their perepherals may not be great) and am looking for some reassurance.

Anyways, I know you mentioned earlier that Bryzzy has showed some signs of fatigue, somewhat due to his style of play, and workload of course.

Question is how long do you think it will take for to get his GAA down a bit and his SV% up, and can you help me understand how his style of play causes more fatigue. I've always thought Bryz was fairly technically sound.

Thanks, I really like how you have broadened mine and everyone's knowledge regarding the goaltending world.

SK

(interesting the last post is a little similar to mine )

[GoalieGuild]

I have Brodeur, Price, Bobrovsky......Pavelec, Crawford, Conklin. Doing very well in my league, 1st place. Do you see any of my "Big 3" as expendable (if I want to trade to improve other areas in the future) or must I keep them for the rest of the season due to uncertainty?

Definitely not Price, as you saw from what I wrote in School of Block today. Definitely blown away by Bobrovsky, but his sampling size is small, so things could change for him despite this amazing start. Brodeur, in my opinion, is clearly the only one of your big three that is expendable.

If you also have Pavelec, he's your X-Factor. Read School of Block today. You have some flexibility if you wanted to move Brodeur in order to improve in other areas!! But I wouldn't move Price or Bobrovsky right now at all!

[Celly]

I am debating trying to acquire Jocob Markstrom in a larger deal. Essentially the team wants Markov and Mike Smith from me he is offering me Bertuzzi, Bieska and Markstrom. Its a keeper league, but I am contending this year and am not sure if I feel Comfortable having Markstrom as a backup.

My goalies are Vokoun and Kipper...If Vokoun went down would Markstrom be called up? Would he start?

[Enapai]

Justin -

Threw a few more things into the thread we were discussing.

http://www.dobberhockey.com/index.ph...ad.php&t=87145

If you got a few moments too look and share any other thoughts it would be much appreciated.

Thanks as always.

[AFlyers66]

Hey Justin, thanks for doing this. Your stuff is poolie gold, and has helped me become more a student of goaltending and evaluating talent. Nothing more needs said!

First, I ran this by you briefly via Twitter, but it's hard to get a point across in 140 characters only. So I'll post it here for further analysis.

I'm in a 10-team roto keeper (team in siggy) with a 40-man farm. So there's alot of emphasis on finding talent early, claiming them via the draft, or free agency after they're drafted. My active roster goalies are Luongo, Bryzgalov and Thomas (Bobrovsky has been up on my active roster all season and has been a gold mine of points for me early).

Here's my stable of farm goalies, with age:
Bobkov ANA 19
Climie PHO 27
Dekanich NAS 24
B.Elliott OTT 25
Engren NAS 22
Frazee NJ 23
Greiss SJ 24
Krahn DAL 28
Reimer TOR 22
Rynnas TOR 23
Thiessen PIT 24
Weiman VAN 26

Help me evaluate these guys, with the most specific help in which guys have a future in the NHL and actually contributing on that level, and which guys are past that opportunity and are just holding on. Where they rank on their team's depth chart plays a big part in it, and do they have the mental toughness to rise above perceived roadblocks. Who's "too old" or expendable, and could be dropped for younger, more promising talent (JP Anderson chief among them). Who's "too young" and too far away from ever contributing in this pool format. Etc. Etc.

Also, I traded low for Greiss after Niemi signed, and wonder what you think about his chances of getting back to the NHL and a legitimate shot there.

Thanks for your insights, Justin.

Mark

[GoalieGuild]

Would you move Luongo for Rask if you wanted to be a contender each year, starting now?

If you could get a Rask + Backes or Seguin, would you even hesitate? League in sig.

14 Team Keeper H2H *08-09,09-10 Champ*
Keep: 7Fwds,2Dmen,1Goalie
G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,HITS,PIM,+/-
W,GAA,SVS,SV%,SHO
C-Spezza,J.Staal,Hanzal.Jokinen,Turris
LW-Parise,Neal,,Malone,Whitney,Stalberg
RW-Hudler,Clarkson,Hornqvist,Doan,Skinner
D-Weber,E.Johnson,Martin,Letang
G-Luongo,Niemi,Conklin,Leighton

I don't think Rask is enough of an upgrade over Luongo THIS YEAR, but for next year and beyond, definitely worth a long look. Very tough for me to comment on any potential trades that involve forwards as that is not my forte, but if you are getting Rask and Backes/Segin for Luongo straight up, it's a bit of a risk, but huge reward moving forward.

I think the changes Luongo made to his game this year make him a quality keeper league goalie to own on a team that plays well in front of him and has solid offensive support. The Bruins don't have the same kind of offense and there's always the Tim Thomas factor to deal with when looking at Rask's upside and value from a fantasy perspective.

I don't think I would trade Luongo in a keeper league right now for Rask unless you really needed the offensive support with the addition of Backes/Seguin. So for "starting now" aspect of your question, I would say "no" ... but for future years, I'd definitely take a good long look at it.

Since you have Niemi, Conklin and Leighton, you definitely need some upgrade in the age department. All of those goalies together along with Luongo would worry me a bit as far as your long-term success, so maybe there's a way to keep Luongo but boost your future by dropping Leighton or Conklin and adding a good young prospect? Do you have any of those opportunities?

My advice in situations like this, where you can trade one good goalie for another good goalie is to pass and try to boost goalies deeper in the system. I would take Rask+offense over Luongo, but if you are looking for instant results, obviously you know that Thomas is soaking up most of the minutes in Boston right now. That could change in the coming weeks, but going off what has happened to start the season, it looks like Rask is going to struggle to reach his potential with such few minutes.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks for doing Justin, your input is gold! What are your thoughts on Lundqvist this year? One thing I've learned in fantasy hockey through the years is that there aren't any sure shot in goaltending. If there are any sure shots Lundqvist would be close to that. Your thoughts....

Also if you do a brief update on Neuvirth and Bryzgalov.I know you said Bryzer seemed to be suffering from energy drain, How were is last outings...

From now 'till the rest of the year, if you would have to choose one between Bryzgalov and Neuvirth, ho would it be ? (Wins= 2pts and Shutouts= +1, no other categories exept assists for goalies)

Thanks a lot again!

6-5-1 with a 2.67 GAA and .918 save percentage is not exactly what we hoped to see from him through the first six weeks. I think there has been a bit of an adjustment for him with the new pad regulations - I made sure to point out a number of times that he waould be affected more than most. And that has rung true ... a number of goals squeaking through him five-hole that his pads would have stopped last year.

But I made the assumption that it would force him to come off his goal line a little bit, which would actually make him better. It didn't make him better and generally he's still anchored to his goal line, so in my mind the whole six weeks has been an adjustment.

Nevertheless, Gaborik is back. The team will start to play better and I won't be surprised if Lundqvist's stats are better overal in the next week. I'll be watching him tonight ... he's up against none other than Fleury ... so definitely an interesting game that just started.

I think Lundqvist is playing very well and he's not struggling by any means ... there have been more than a couple of 4-goal games, but he has some great games mixed in as well. Lots of elements to look at, like the Avery effect, team defense and support in front of him. But with Gaborik back and Lundqvist getting more comfortable with different sized pads, I think he'll get better statistically.

I would take Bryzgalov > Neuvirth for the rest of the year. Neuvirth has more potential long-term, but Bryz has experience and even though he's suffering from some energy drain right now (clearly seen through his weak rebound control in the past week), he has the durability, flexibility and experience to battle through those games and still stop a ton of pucks. Neuvirth doesn't see the same workload and is still winning games, but the save percentage and GAA won't be as sharp.

I know your league only counts wins and shutouts, but still go with Bryz for the sheer fact of games played. Varlamov is getting healthy and he'll be playing some games, which might cause Neuvy to get a little inconsistent and the whole dynamic could change. But with Bryzgalov you are guaranteed close to 70 starts.

[dyzfunctioned]

Hey Justin, love the new article.

Will ellis hold the starting job? Contemplating dropping Smith in one league for crawford or holtby.

[GoalieGuild]

I'm not really worried about my stud netminder. But I have just traded my Washington handcuff away (I had a feeling the two of them would always win, but as long as they were playing for the caps their perepherals may not be great) and am looking for some reassurance.

Anyways, I know you mentioned earlier that Bryzzy has showed some signs of fatigue, somewhat due to his style of play, and workload of course.

Question is how long do you think it will take for to get his GAA down a bit and his SV% up, and can you help me understand how his style of play causes more fatigue. I've always thought Bryz was fairly technically sound.

Thanks, I really like how you have broadened mine and everyone's knowledge regarding the goaltending world.

SK

(interesting the last post is a little similar to mine )

The thing that gets Bryzgalov a little bit in trouble when he faces a lot of shots is that he relies more on reflexes and agility than his positioning. Although he has great size, he plays up on his toes a lot and is not a "calm butterfly" goalie, so he likes to be very active with his hands and feet and attack pucks and challenge shooters.

Think of what you see when you watch Pekka Rinne or Sergei Bobrovsky. They are super-quick, but they end up exerting a lot of energy in order to make the saves. And because they play up on their toes more than back on their heels, rebound control and timing is more of an issue when things aren't going great. They will fight the puck more than a big calm goalie (think Price and Backstrom) because their hands and feet move more.

Bryzgalov, despite fighting the puck and suffering from energy drain in his past three games, is still stopping a TON of shots. I watched all three games. He was very admirable, durable, and did an awesome job of stopping pucks when he gave up second and third chances. So it wasn't the most efficent or super sharp goaltending, but he got the job done because he has great mental toughness and he's skilled enough to battle through things like this.

Looking at Phoenix's schedule, I think the rest he'll get in the next two weeks will allow him to recover and play better. On the road Wednesday, Friday, Sunday, then they don't play again until Wednesday. So plenty of rest and a very favorable schedule. I expect him to continue to play well and maybe instead of three goals against on average, he'll be a little more composed and efficient, control his rebounds better and make a few more saves. Big games against Northwest division teams, so he has to be mentally prepared and that will be the key to watch for on Wednesday!

[GoalieGuild]

I am debating trying to acquire Jocob Markstrom in a larger deal. Essentially the team wants Markov and Mike Smith from me he is offering me Bertuzzi, Bieska and Markstrom. Its a keeper league, but I am contending this year and am not sure if I feel Comfortable having Markstrom as a backup.

My goalies are Vokoun and Kipper...If Vokoun went down would Markstrom be called up? Would he start?

That's a steal in my book. You give up an inconsistent Mike Smith who has injury issues and hasn't taken control of the starting gig yet....you give up Markov ... you get Bertuzzi, Bieksa and Markstrom???

Since you already have Kipper and Vokoun - two workhorses, go ahead and improve your future by a mile. Again it's very hard for me to decipher the value of a trade when forwards are involved ... I know that makes it tough to ask my advice on trades, but I can only speak on the goalies with any expertise. Didn't Markov just hurt himself again??

If you are contending this year, you will thrive on Vokoun and Kipper. Depending on your stats, he'll probably hurt you more than he helps. His potential is nowhere near where Markstrom's is ... so I would be making that trade no problem.

Yes, if Vokoun gets hurt, Markstrom would be called up and would play some games. It depends on the severity of the injury and the decision of the coaching staff. They may want Markstrom to play more AHL games and they'd bring up the more experiened Tyler Plante. You never know!!

[GoalieGuild]

Justin -

Threw a few more things into the thread we were discussing.

http://www.dobberhockey.com/index.ph...ad.php&t=87145

If you got a few moments too look and share any other thoughts it would be much appreciated.

Thanks as always.

Will give you good feedback on that for sure a little bit later tonight buddy, thanks!!