Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 20

[GoalieGuild]

How many starts do you predict for each of these guys?

Lehtonen
Elliott
D Ellis
Dipietro

I think Lehtonen stays healthy and plays around 55 games.

Elliott will probably be very close to a 41-game split with Leclaire. So expect at least 40.

Dan Ellis will carry the workload for the Lightning and will probably also play around 55 games.

DiPietro? GAH! Who knows. I would plan for ~25 games right now. I don't see him staying healthy all season.

[Brady19]

I think Lehtonen stays healthy and plays around 55 games.

Elliott will probably be very close to a 41-game split with Leclaire. So expect at least 40.

Dan Ellis will carry the workload for the Lightning and will probably also play around 55 games.

DiPietro? GAH! Who knows. I would plan for ~25 games right now. I don't see him staying healthy all season.

Haha, I'm glad you agree with my assessment for the most part. I like the prediction on Lehtonen, he could be a big sleeper if he plays 50+ games this year.

Thank you sir!

[GoalieGuild]

I have been sending some texts back and forth with Valley (stars goalie coach) and he says Lehtonen looks the best in camp.

Stars are coming to Denver for a pre-season game and I'm hoping he's in the lineup for that game. It's also my first chance to finally meet Valley so I'll try to pick his brain some more about Lehtonen =)

[ccsitdown]

Hey Goldman,

Thanks for the interesting article on the Avs camp, you always manage to dig deeper.

My question:

I'm heading into an inaugural keeper draft in a few weeks. In my other keeper I've been riding Backstrom, but my team is getting pretty developed and he is a decent fit. In this new league, I plan to draft fairly young (not too raw, but want to build a team that will be a contender for a number of years, not just this year and next). My first three picks are 5th, 24th and 33rd. So far, I plan to grab one of the big forwards at 5. First question, should I tag Luongo or Miller at 5, or should I go ahead with that plan? And if not, who would you go after at 24 or 33 (depending on the goalie panic I may have to use the earlier of the two)? I will likely skip Backstrom, Kipper, Vokoun, Brodeur & similar age tenders. Who do you favor of the younger crop? Rask? Lundqvist? (Please don't say Fleury...) Someone else? A few ideas would be great, been a while since I had to draft a goalie other than prospects or a one-year format.

(2 pts for a WIN, 3 pts for a SO, no other stats.)

Thanks for your time and your continually excellent analysis!

[Chicleteur]

Niittymaki is a decent choice. Bernier is a high-reward guy that shouldn't be passed up. I'm not sold on Thomas playing at a high level after the hip surgery. You should definitely look closely at Neuvirth. One of the most underrated goalies the past two seasons is Dwayne Roloson. Even if DiPietro is healthy, Roloson will end up playing more games this year I bet.

You already own two steady workhorses that will probably play close to 65 games. Go for quality over quantity. That means Bernier stands out, same with Schneider, as the two goalies I would go for the most. Chris Mason will also post quality stats when he gets to play.

I'd go with Bernier. He's probably making the team and he's most inclined to steal starts due to awesome stats. If you want more of a guarantee, roll with Schneider!

Thanks Justin!

Like I said I was definitely thinking about Schneider as my 3rd (so that I get all VCR games) and Bernier as a 4th (could also be a keeper for me depending how he ends the season).

[SK47]

Hey Justin,

This is my first post in your mailbag. Thanks for doing this.

I was concerned with Bryzgalov all last year (afraid that his great stats wouldn't last) I spent all summer comfortable and happy with my great tender.

Now, as the season approaches I'm starting to get a little wary again. What kind of stats do you expect from him for the upcoming season?

Thanks
SK

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Goldman,

Thanks for the interesting article on the Avs camp, you always manage to dig deeper.

My question:

I'm heading into an inaugural keeper draft in a few weeks. In my other keeper I've been riding Backstrom, but my team is getting pretty developed and he is a decent fit. In this new league, I plan to draft fairly young (not too raw, but want to build a team that will be a contender for a number of years, not just this year and next). My first three picks are 5th, 24th and 33rd. So far, I plan to grab one of the big forwards at 5. First question, should I tag Luongo or Miller at 5, or should I go ahead with that plan? And if not, who would you go after at 24 or 33 (depending on the goalie panic I may have to use the earlier of the two)? I will likely skip Backstrom, Kipper, Vokoun, Brodeur & similar age tenders. Who do you favor of the younger crop? Rask? Lundqvist? (Please don't say Fleury...) Someone else? A few ideas would be great, been a while since I had to draft a goalie other than prospects or a one-year format.

(2 pts for a WIN, 3 pts for a SO, no other stats.)

Thanks for your time and your continually excellent analysis!

The first thing I notice is that there's a pretty big gap between 5th and 24th. A keeper league is an interesting draft dynamic for goalies. The two modes of thinking are to draft an established goalie in his late-20's or snag a young "unproven" stud in his early-20's.

My first piece of advice is to seriously look at taking Luongo at #5 overall. He is the type of durable goalie that can play at a high level until he is close to 40. And with a new goalie coach, he will learn some mental aspects of the position that he didn't truly understand before. His technique is without question one of the best in the league. He will always face certain issues, things like traffic in front of him and stick handling, but size means more now than it ever did before.

My second piece of advice would be to understand which younger goalies are capable of also being very good goalies for many years. I believe Tuukka Rask and goalies like Steve Mason and Carey Price fit this mold. But since Rask has already established himself as a legit talent and capable of winning in the playoffs, I would take him over the others.

I agree that Fleury is not the kind of goalie you want to mess with. You want confidence and goalies that come with a guarantee. And you want a goalie that shows a lot of mental toughness. Not many young goalies with tremendous skill have the mental toughness...but a few do!

I don't know who you should go after at 24 and 33 (if you choose to take this route) because it will depend on how your draft goes leading up to those choices. Maybe Rask will still be hanging around. It's possible you might be able to snag a gem in Pekka Rinne. Jaroslav Halak might still be around at 24 or 33 as well. I think Cam Ward still has a lot of years left and he's a great gem to have as well, just not with all the flair like the others have.

All of those goalies (Rinne, Rask, Halak, Ward) have the skill AND the mental toughness and are still considerably young. That's who I would try to snag at those 24 and 33 spots =)

Hopefully that helps and thanks for reading!

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin,

This is my first post in your mailbag. Thanks for doing this.

I was concerned with Bryzgalov all last year (afraid that his great stats wouldn't last) I spent all summer comfortable and happy with my great tender.

Now, as the season approaches I'm starting to get a little wary again. What kind of stats do you expect from him for the upcoming season?

Thanks
SK

Don't freak out, Bryzgalov will be fine. He's one year older, has one more year of experience, is coming off a pretty solid playoff performance against the Wings (fell short in that last game though, but that fuels his fire) and is in a contract season.

Because of all those things, I would be even more confident in his ability to thrive in Tippett's system. Not only does he understand it more, but so too do his defenseman.

I'm not going to guarantee that he'll have even more polished stats than last season, but heading into the final week of September, I see no reason why he'll be any worse than he was last year.

Bryz is a pimp. He'll be awesome I'm sure!

[mike_dubs]

Thanks for doing this!

I am looking for goalies who have best chance of lots of wins and shutouts. Saves against also.

Those are the big stats im looking for. What goAlies are sure fire bets for these?

[Pokerface]

Do you have any info on the young 18 y.o. goalie the Caps just signed? Seen any footage of him?

[dyzfunctioned]

Hey Justin, asked a similiar question earlier but always like asking you more

1 Year W/SV%/SV/GAA/SO rank 'em (only have to rank the first line, unless you're bored )

Hiller, Backstrom, Price, S. Mason, Turco, Niemi, Varlamov, Quick, Leighton, Ellis, Lehtonen

Neuvirth, Elliott, Niitymaki, Giguere, Roloson, Pavelec, Gustavsson, Bhulin, JDD, Smith, Goldman, Thomas, C. Mason, Leclaire, DiPietro

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks for doing this!

I am looking for goalies who have best chance of lots of wins and shutouts. Saves against also.

Those are the big stats im looking for. What goAlies are sure fire bets for these?

Lots of wins and shutouts? Try Luongo, Brodeur, Miller, Lundqvist, Vokoun, Kiprusoff, Howard, Rask, Hiller, Ward and Anderson to start with. All of those goalies are capable of posting lots of wins, facing lots of shots and getting some shutouts. I'm not sure if you meant saves or shots against but they are both pretty tied to each other so just look at last year's stats and adjust accordingly.

[GoalieGuild]

Do you have any info on the young 18 y.o. goalie the Caps just signed? Seen any footage of him?

That would be Brandon Anderson. I have never seen him play before and will do some hunting and scouting and try to report back on this!

I'm much more intrigued by the other Anderson that signed today ... J.P. Anderson w/ the Sharks. They now have 9 goalies in the system.

[mister_mcgoo]

this is a bit more of a thinker for you Justin...

thanks to your efforts, most of the GMs in my leagues have snatched up your top 10 prospects (though I own Markstrom so I'm not complaining). So after that top bracket of the Bernier's and Neuvrith and Lehner who do you see as having the most 'boom' factor the soonest? By 'boom' factor I fully accept the possibility he 'busts' but assuming I wanted to grab a guy late and roll the dice on him panning out, who would you pick?

[GoalieGuild]

this is a bit more of a thinker for you Justin...

thanks to your efforts, most of the GMs in my leagues have snatched up your top 10 prospects (though I own Markstrom so I'm not complaining). So after that top bracket of the Bernier's and Neuvrith and Lehner who do you see as having the most 'boom' factor the soonest? By 'boom' factor I fully accept the possibility he 'busts' but assuming I wanted to grab a guy late and roll the dice on him panning out, who would you pick?

Eddie Lack and Sergei Bobrovsky have pretty much come out of nowhere (over the summer) and both have proved they are legit future long-term prospects. Lack will be on Top-100 for October and Bobrovsky is going way up.

Since Johan Backlund is hurt, Bobrovsky is probably starting the season in the AHL. He's getting a ton of good press as well. It's crazy how things can change so quickly, but now that I've seen what Bobrovsky has as far as speed is concerned, I won't be surprised if he wins the battle over Riopel.

Shantz JUST got sent down to the Moose and Lack is still with the Canucks. More proof they like him a lot. Shantz was nowhere close to being a long-term keeper but it looks like Lack is AHL bound this season as well. I would think Justin Peters is one of those guys that could be very a steady hidden gem. Great goalie coach honing him as well.

I think pre-season is the most interesting time of year for a goalie scout because you are seeing AHL and long-term prospects getting a chance to play NHL-atmospheric games against some legit NHL players. So you can really tell how their skills match up against the best of the best.

Kevin Poulin I have listed I believe right around #45 and he's a goalie that definitely has some awesome long-term potential and has looked great in Isles training camp.

That's just a few good ones I feel strongly that are lower on the Top-100.