Just wondering how you think each will perform over the length of their contracts with Edmonton and Atlanta. Also, will Holtby be a threat to the Varlamov/Neuvirth situation soon, or will it eventually become a Holtby/whoever they decide to keep situation later down the road? Thanks bud!
I am slowly, slowly becoming a Duby fan. You can't discredit his size, and I have seen first-hand many times situations where a goalie that has a TERRIBLE start to their career in the stats department find a way to turn it around over a single summer.
Let's face the current facts - Deslauriers is still not signed for this season. Khabibulin is as rusty as you can possibly get ... and still not on the ice yet. Dubnyk's deal is one-way:
That's quite a revealing article. As you can see, Dubnyk impressed the Oilers enough to warrant a one-way deal. Therefore the focus and clincher relies solely on how much they want to pay Deslauriers. He's restricted, so we know that if he signs, it will be more than he made last season. No arbitration hearings coming either.
So as of right now...
Odds that he gets some NHL games this season? I'd say ... 60-75%
Odds that he posts better stats and performs better and displays better skill? I'd say ... 70-80%
Odds that he is playing in front of a slightly better defense and team?? Ask Bugg or Dobber. But I'd say at least 50% chance. I don't think there's any way they can be more terrible than last year. Same goes for him.
I remember when Dubnyk played his first 2-3 games how terrible he looked. Even a couple of players on other teams how he couldn't stop anything at that level. They were kind of right. But he displayed some REAL perseverence and still used his size adequately and slowly got better as the season came to a close.
Remember, he went 0-8-2 in his first 10 starts ... and his first win came against the Red Wings 3-2 in a shootout ... and he made 31 saves on 33 shots ... that's nothing to joke at. Including that OT win, he was 4-2-0 in his final six games
He looked way out of place, but I could see him having a decent season in the AHL. Two-year deal means next season will be his real shot to solidify any kind of long-term NHL deal. I would say he's a fringe NHL backup right now with fringe starter upside...if he works really hard and takes advantage of his limited opportunities!
Chris Mason is kind of in a similar boat, as a lot of his value this season depends on Pavelec signing. But obviously Mason will be playing ~25 games regardless of what happens. I won't go as much in-depth since we know he's capable of logging starter minutes. I think he'll be great in Atlanta and with a reduced role, he'll post pretty solid stats with a little more than a .500 record, similar to what Johan Hedberg accomplished. He'll be a bright spot and somewhat of a fan-favorite and be a spark off the bench.
A subtle point on Dubnyk that may not mean anything on the surface but internally is a boost of confidence:
He was very recently invited to be a part of an on-ice session by Bauer Hockey with some of their other equipment rep NHL players ... some very elite forwards. I think the only other goalies there were Lundqvist and Vokoun ... and maybe 8-10 skaters.
There is no way Dubnyk comes out of THAT on-ice session a worse goalie both mentally and technically.
Right in the dead of the summer, something like this can act as a real mental catalyst for a guy like him. Just all these little hints of defying odds come up in Dubnyk's game, tiny things but they start to add up. I dunno maybe it's just me?!?!
Dubnyk and C.Mason
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