Trade Contest - Who and what got traded

[smack]

Shoeless is one of the toughest guys to trade with cause you know he always has something up his sleeve. I feel extremely lucky to have gotten Halak from him last year and the only reason I did, was roster limitations.

The biggest factor in making my decision was that this is weekly starts, not daily starts. Had it been daily, I most likely would have gone with Brown over Roy. But with St.Louis, Doan, Voracek and Bergfors, I feel I'm more than ok on the right side and can confidently starts any 3 of those guys every week.

At centre, Arnott will not be a keeper, and most likely, neither will Bailey (even though I like him). So that would leave me with Crosby, Krejci and Berglund. Berglund is not proven at all yet and I don't have that confidence in starting him every week while Krejci is extremely streaky. Roy had a really bad start last year and I believe finished with something like 70pts and that's with a really cold Vanek.

I really wanted to get a LW most of all but nobody was willing to budge and when I draft Hall with my 1st pick in the prospect round, that should shore it up a bit.

It wasn't an easy decision as I told, Shoeless, that I have a feeling that the first pick will be a goalie who takes over the goaltending duties in SJ or Philly (like an Ellis or something) but it ain't no fun w/out risks and I know there would be no forward in our waiver draft that comes close to Roy's production.

I think the golden rule is if your team is better after the trade, you did the right thing and I think my team is better now.

This was fun, Shoeless, and thanks to all of you for your insights, saw some things that I didn't see before. And HPG, you truly broke this down in amazing fashion. Made me question taking a C over a RW and you might be right, but I'm stickin' to my guns.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Absolutely love the thread, Shoeless. Good explanation of what went down for sure, and incredibly instructive and useful to the community here.

More than anything, good deal for the both of you. Win-win deals are so much more satisfying than anything else because they're much harder to come by... you really need to understand your trading parter and their needs in order to find that middle ground.

Smack, I think you did well. My general preference is to build the wings rather than C because it's so hard to get good wingers -- that's why I was harping on it so hard. Glad my breakdown worked for you.

This thread is the perfect example of what is so great about these boards - experienced fantasy hockey players sharing their process. If you wanna be good, you gotta think it though. Smack, Shoeless: thanks for bringing us along for the ride.

Cheers

HPG

[Shoeless]

Final thoughts

I am going to be giving out at least 3 of those prizes and will get back to that once I have some time to say why.

The deal itself isn't that big a deal - I might have got more value back on Roy but I think the strategic value I got back is more than adequate. As much as I want to be as competitive as I can be this year - I am still a couple of steps away from the team I want and I think I took another small step. The fact that Smack did very well on the deal is none of my business except that I think it further cements a positive trading relationship. I think the deal actually enhances my options - sticks on the ice and my stick is now on the ice right in front of the waiver draft that could yield as much as Smack fears it will yield - if it doesn't I am still getting a value pick there.

An interesting by-product of this deal in our league as that it jolted the league into action - I have received 4 offers or serious queries in the past 24 hours. Perhaps it's all about there's Shoeless giving things away again and I want in - but as the spider said to the fly - come on in.

Personally I expected the tread to expose more in depth analysis reporting from folks and I am a little disappointed there. Guys like Phil the Thrill and Rainmaker are either brilliantly intuitive or they did the work but didn't report it. I would have loved to hear how they arrived at their guesses - because I think the real value to the rest of us isn't in the actual guess but in the process that got them to the guess.

HPG was nothing short of amazing in his work in this thread - the thoroughness of examination, the understanding of the principles in play, the diligent sharing. If .5% of the threads on these boards included more of that stuff, this place would be absolutely scary.

HPG makes a very important comment in his last post - he says thinking is key. I agree - think deeply when you are looking at making deals and think deeply when you are responding to threads on these boards and for heaven's sake share that thinking because we all learn from that.

Been fun - good luck with Roy, Smack. Nothing more righteous than two guys walking away from a deal done thinking they did good.

[rainmaker]

love it! Sorry for not giving insight. I will give some insight later on tonight, regarding how I came to my conclusion!

[rainmaker]

alrighty-behind the thoughts that were filling my head:

I began by checking out the teams. Team A I felt was very young. With the exception of some proven vets like St Louis, and Doan, I noticed that the studs on this team were young. Guys like Crosby, krejci, berglund, versteeg, voracek, price, halak...all these guys are young and on the uprise. The prospect team was also very impressive.

With the above information I noticed that both St Louis and Doan were 2 aging Rws on the team. Thus RW is not necessarily a postion of weakness for team A by any means, but a position where young studs are lacking with the exception of the emerging Voracek.

I also noticed that this team is interested in building through the draft and young guys, hence all the early draft picks.

In comparison, Team B while still being young, also has more proven vets on the squad. Lidstrom, Timonen, Turco, Sedin, Kariya ect. I got the feeling that team B was pretty interested in competeing year in and year out.

With only two prospect picks, the highest being 22nd, team B is not interested in a multi year rebuild.

Team B is stacked at RW, the hardest position to fill. Team A, while good at RW, needs a better RW core for the future when the team will be at their best.

Team B has a couple very good young RW that would fit great with team A. Kane (no way getting traded), Brown, Okposo, Hudler and Frolik! WOW!

So what am I thinking you ask? Well...Frolik I believe is the furthest away from being the most dominant. But also has a very high upside. I love him! Im thinking Frolik added to team A to take the place of St Louis and Doan and to be paired up with Voracek, set for years, then in the hardest position to fill!

I thought the 1st waiver pick would be coming back forsure, because again this pick will more then likely be an older guy that is ready to contribute now, that would fit team B nicely to compete next year!

Well that was my logic, anyhow ha, a bit off but all in all a very fun contest, and a great trade shoeless and smack!1

[rjfisher83]

I apologize for not leaving any insight into my "stabs." I have been prepping my yard for sod the past few days (feels like weeks) and I spend the majority of my free time playing in dirt.

My initial thoughts of Team A:

1. Solid forwards
2. Could use some help at D
3. Nice having the 1st overall waiver pick and the 1st overall prospect pick
4. Should be able to fill the gaps with those picks and their farm.

My initial thoughts of Team B:

1. Wow, deep centers
2. Good wingers
3. Great defense
4. Very weak in net. Better hope Bernier steals the starting job this coming season.

With Shoeless' initial hint that Team B initiated the trade, I thought: "What would I look for if I was Team B?" Immediately, goaltending came to mind because it was the only obvious flaw with Team B.

I conveniently ignored the number of keepers Shoeless mentioned and just looked at the entire teams. Big mistake. Hopefully I won't do it again the next time I'm evaluating a trade like this.

I figured only Halak and Price would be the tenders worth targeting. Theodore has no guarantees on where he goes or if he'll start and DiPietro is guaranteed to be in the hospital a couple times a year. I thought it would be sweet irony if Team B acquired Halak for two picks (or "prospects," if you will). But I thought Halak's trade value would be much higher in the fantasy world than the real one. I also wasn't sure when this fantasy trade was made in relation to the actual Halak trade.

So that explains my first stab: Carey Price for 10th and 13th picks in the waiver draft.

That's when HPG took over and dissected both teams and the first couple of Shoeless' cryptic clues. He did most of the heavy lifting, he deserves the bulk of the credit.

The "split" clue given could have been referring to Halak and Price if the deal was made prior to Halak going to the Blues so I didn't change my mind at that point.

I didn't stray from my original guess until HPG realized that he made the same mistake as I and discounted the fact that Team B was so deep and could only keep 16 players. That's when you don't necessarily look at a team's weaknesses, but rather at their strength and depth and try to improve on your draft position with it and make your team better that way. It's a move I use in my keeper leagues regularly. If I have extra guys that could be keepable on other teams, I do my best to upgrade my picks or acquire more because I'm going to lose them for nothing so I might as well get compensated.

Then came Shoeless' "warm wind/rain continued to blow out of the east" comment. Which HPG took as northeast. But I think that wasn't exactly what Shoeless intended. HPG has it right with:

East = warm
North = hot

Combined with the next clue of: "geocentric proclivities of North Americans - assign a direction to a position" and I knew:

East = warm = RW = Team B tried, it was close, but it didn't work (Dustin Brown)
North = hot = C = Team B traded a center

So with Team B's deep centers (initial thought on Team B), the fact Team B had a few borderline keepers, and the "Team B splits two assets with a lot in common as a practical matter" clue, I felt Team B was splitting Derek Roy and Thomas Vanek since they play on the same line and that was the only "center + split" that made sense. Funny that HPG had the "split" right but was still thinking winger and picked Vanek.

So with this: "Team B ratchets up the offer so that Team A can't resist." I thought Roy would be considered a good ratcheting but I was unsure of the value of the waiver picks in this league since I was not too familiar with it.

Hence my next stab: Derek Roy and 13th waiver pick for 1st overall waiver pick.

In summation, I arrived at Guess #1 based on Team B's initial needs. And I arrived at Guess #2 based on Team B's depth, keeper situation, and HPG's grunt work (and a few clues from Shoeless along the way).

Overall a very interesting thread and it has opened my eyes to a few nuances in the keeper world of fantasy hockey. Again, HPG, terrific job on your analysis. It was so in depth at times it seemed obsessive (but not in a bad way), but it unveiled a lot of information and tricks the rest of us can use in the future.

Well done to all, and thanks Shoeless!

[sergioel]

Being an owner that has the 1st overall pick in my leagues prospect draft I am well aware of the commodity.
Team A has some holes at the center position outside of Crosby.
Team B has some depth at that center position.

Team B trades P. Stastny and 22nd pick in the prospect draft

to

Team A for the 1st overall pick in the prospect draft.

[rjfisher83]

Hey emidio69, Shoeless already revealed the trade a while ago.

[Shoeless]

Okay here's what I have decided to do with the contest prizes - right or wrong. If I just keep my mouth shut through the thread I don't have a problem but then it might have taken forever that way.

Jacques_Trap got the correct answer - he road coattails to it but my word is my oath.
Rainmaker - intuitively or analytically he had the concept right from the get go - and one of his original guesses could well have been the answer if Smack had co-operated just a little more (I don't think I would have moved Frolik at any point but the rainman had it pretty much nailed).
RJFisher because he got it on the reconsider, save for a minor detail.
HPG - if he doesn't get a prize for what went down here - I get booed out of the arena.

If you guys could go into the Dobbershop and select an item of clothing you want then PM me the details of what you want and your mailing address - I will jump through the hoops with Dobber to get things done. May take a bit, I am no the most tech savvy guy when it comes to internet commerce.

Hopefully you all see this entry. If not I will come looking for ya.

[rainmaker]

my man shoeless, thanks alot! Im not sure I can accept a piece of clothing, thankyou very much for your offer! You have contributed more to this site then 95% of us, you did what I did for this thread on a daily basis, and for that we, I am forever in debt.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I also think I've gotta decline the prize, Shoeless. Much appreciated, but I shared my thoughts/process not to win any contest... just because it was fun!

Great thread, and your work to continue/foster the development of all the posters here is really appreciated. The other day I was looking back at the first posts I had on these forums, and let's just say I've come a fair distance.

[Shoeless]

Niitty on FA - can I mail my 1st waiver pick in now?

[smack]

Niitty on FA - can I mail my 1st waiver pick in now?

I'd rather have Roy. . .

[Shoeless]

I'd rather have Roy. . .

Easy to say when you have 2 starting goalies already.

[little_boyes_semin]

Even though I did all the work I still would like to decline the prize.