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Thread: Top-100 prospects rankings

  1. #226
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    Top-25 now posted for October!

    http://thegoalieguild.com/top150prospects

    Should have the full Top-150 report done by Friday, and shipped out to premium members before the weekend hits!

    Anders Nilsson in the Top-10 for the first time. Regardless of how many games he plays compared to Poulin, both guys are legit studs. It's almost like the Capitals situation with Varlamov and Neuvirth ... one guy will stay, one guy will go. Not sure when that will be, probably in two seasons.

    Pickard's 40-save shutout over the Marlies? Wow. But if anyone knows how to handle 40-save performances, it's him. Great start to his rookie season (Aittokallio too).

    Martin Jones --- Legit Top-20 guy now ... Mannino is his backup, and with Bernier headed out sooner rather than later, Jones is the new "future Kings goalie" ... keep an eye on him!

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    Hey guys the updated Top-25 for November will be up shortly, but I wanted to give you the breakdown on how I've revised all my rankings and reports for them.

    The Top-150 has been streamlined and trimmed down to the Top-100. The main reason for this is because I agreed to do a "draft watch list" report solely based on draft-eligible goalies, so that got me thinking about age discrepancy.

    I decided that I wanted to refine what I define as a prospect. I think it makes sense to do this now while I have the time, plus it only makes things easier to digest and understand.

    So I've removed anyone aged 28+ because at that age, they're considered older goalies that have way less odds of being a long-term starting NHL goalie. So I took those guys out (think Hutton, etc) they are being added into The Darkhorses report, which is still a premium report I've been publishing.

    I've also removed all UFA goalies, except for those that have very strong and legitimate potential, and are still young enough to be signed by NHL teams and evolve into potential starters. There are only two of them remaining on the revised Top-100: Joacim Eriksson and Alex Salak. I did this because I feel that there's no way to truly predict and rank a UFA prospect compared to all the goalies that are signed or drafted by NHL teams. Politics plays a role in overall opportunity, and that has to be accounted for, so I feel they simply don't belong on the list until they're officially a part of an NHL team.

    The UFA goalies that WERE removed, well, I call them "Hidden Gems" ... and they are placed below the Top-100 in their own little group. But they are not ranked due to their variable value, so they are merely organized in alphabetical order, kind of like a draft watch list.

    So now everything looks like this:

    TOP-100 PROSPECTS: Signed or drafted prospects with the best talent and potential to break into the NHL on a full-time basis. Includes goalies ages 18-27 (no draft-eligibles).

    HIDDEN GEMS: UFA prospects (ages 20-27) that have potential to be signed by NHL teams and begin the process of working their way up the ranks.

    THE GRADUATES: Stays the same.

    THE DARKHORSES: Signed or UFA goalies (ages 28+) that have potential to break into the NHL.

    DRAFT WATCH LIST: Top draft-eligible goalies for the 2013 and 2014 NHL Drafts. They are not ranked because I simply don't see all of them play. A ranking will be completed one or two months before the draft takes place, or I'll do some kind of mock draft.

    OK there you go! Let me know if you have questions about any of this. I think it goes a long way in not only helping me compartmentalize the goalies I track, it refines everything a little bit more, and it helps you guys out as well.

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    OK here you go:

    http://www.thegoalieguild.com/top100prospects/

    Note the new hyperlink...so update your bookmarks if ya have them! For the first time since I can remember, Jacob Markstrom is no longer the #1 prospect. But it's a pretty fine line with those Top-4 guys.

    If I had to choose a personal favorite right now, it might be Lehner...considering how strong he has been in what could have been a distraction-filled season. It hurts Bishop's value a little bit.

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    Some more prospect love for you guys:

    My report on Subway Super Series goalies: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/feature...s-top-goalies/

    That's info on SUBBAN, BINNINGTON, BROSSOIT, FUCALE

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=84930

    That's NHL Central Scouting's preliminary list ...

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    When is Lehner gonna overtake Markstrom? He's been the better goalie in North America by a fair margjn.

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    Justin,

    In one dynasty keeper league, I have Holtby & Lehner(and Bernier)...(no other goalie in your top 25 is available)

    In another, I have Jones, Zatkoff, Scrivens, Rynnas, Andersen...(Chad Johnson and Calvin Pickard are the only two goalies in that league in your top 25 that are free agents)

    Phillip Grubauer and Jordan Binnington are available in this league as well...should I look to make room for any of CJ, Pickard, Grubauer or Binnington if I can?
    Twitter: @TheHockeyHitman

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ev View Post
    When is Lehner gonna overtake Markstrom? He's been the better goalie in North America by a fair margjn.
    When you are talking about which one has more potential and upside, you can argue these two guys until you're blue in the face. There is no denying Lehner is having more success right now, but you're talking about a 4-5 week sample size. If Lehner keeps playing like this for another 1-2 months and Markstrom continues to struggle for another 1-2 months, you'll see that reflected in future updates of the Top-100 =].

    It's not easy, but one of the most important things you can do as an evaluator of long-term goaltending talent is tempering expectations from small sample sizes.

    They are both extremely valuable in the long run. Lehner seems like the more valuable goalie right now because of how they are both playing, but it could just as quickly flip around in a few weeks or months. As of right now, I still like Markstrom a little bit more in the long run.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hockey Hitman View Post
    Justin,

    In one dynasty keeper league, I have Holtby & Lehner(and Bernier)...(no other goalie in your top 25 is available)

    In another, I have Jones, Zatkoff, Scrivens, Rynnas, Andersen...(Chad Johnson and Calvin Pickard are the only two goalies in that league in your top 25 that are free agents)

    Phillip Grubauer and Jordan Binnington are available in this league as well...should I look to make room for any of CJ, Pickard, Grubauer or Binnington if I can?
    I think you have all the right guys with Jones, Zatkoff, the two top Leafs prospects and Andersen. I would stand pat. None of the other guys you listed really stand out over the ones you have, and Binnington is still playing juniors, so he's a long ways away compared to everyone else, even for dynasty standards.

    Maybe you look at swapping Zatkoff with Pickard. I think Calvin has more upside as a legit long-term keeper than Zatkoff, who is already at the age where he could be labeled as nothing more than an NHL backup, especially in Pittsburgh.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoalieGuild View Post
    When you are talking about which one has more potential and upside, you can argue these two guys until you're blue in the face. There is no denying Lehner is having more success right now, but you're talking about a 4-5 week sample size. If Lehner keeps playing like this for another 1-2 months and Markstrom continues to struggle for another 1-2 months, you'll see that reflected in future updates of the Top-100 =].

    It's not easy, but one of the most important things you can do as an evaluator of long-term goaltending talent is tempering expectations from small sample sizes.

    They are both extremely valuable in the long run. Lehner seems like the more valuable goalie right now because of how they are both playing, but it could just as quickly flip around in a few weeks or months. As of right now, I still like Markstrom a little bit more in the long run.
    Thanks for the reply. You're right, you could pretty much flip a coin to decide their placement. #2 or #3, doesn't really matter in the end .

    by the way, this is probably answered if I were to purchase the rankings, but what do you think of Chris Driedger and Francois Brassard? I see Driedger's been money lately and I was intrigued when Ottawa picked him relatively high. Brassard, I'm not too high on his stats or record since his team is amazing.

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    Top-100 Prospects Rankings have been updated for December!

    Top-25 free download: http://thegoalieguild.com/top100prospects

    Enjoy! Heading back to Colorado on Thursday for a week with the family for the holidays! Merry Xmas to everyone!!

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    Thanks for the link Justin! So Ramo is really coming next year?
    Points only keeper league
    7 teams
    28 keepers
    Weekly line up: 12 F / 6 D / 2 G
    Goalie stats: W=2 / SO=2

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    Everything I've read and heard leads me to believe strongly that he is coming over. Things could change between now and then. I have seen published reports where Jay Feaster says they already consider Ramo their #2 goalie. He is a legitimate NHL talent, he has the skill to back up Kiprusoff and eventually take over his throne when he no longer plays for Calgary. Very few goalies in the KHL have that type of ability (not including the locked out NHL goalies like Rinne and Varly obviously), but Ramo is one that has it.

    The big obstacle is the transition back over to the smaller ice. If he lands the backup gig to Kiprusoff for next season, he needs to play enough games to allow that transition to take place in a smooth manner. There is no way of knowing how many games he'll need, nor is it known how much of that process he can accomplish by sheerly practicing.

    This is why you have to consider the alternative --- Feaster puts him in the AHL on a two-way contract next season so that he can carry the workload for Abbotsford. That gives Ramo a chance to re-acclimate, a chance to play games and get comfortable, and it's another opportunity for Calgary to ensure he is truly fit for the job with the Flames in future seasons, and he's more of a long-term solution.

    That gives the three goalies currently in Abbotsford a chance to back up Kiprusoff next season. Brust? Taylor? Irving? Take your pick...but it's more likely Brust or Taylor.

    Or they go outside the organization and look elsewhere.

    Bazillions of options, but whatever happens, expect Ramo to be playing in North America next season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoalieGuild View Post
    Everything I've read and heard leads me to believe strongly that he is coming over. Things could change between now and then. I have seen published reports where Jay Feaster says they already consider Ramo their #2 goalie. He is a legitimate NHL talent, he has the skill to back up Kiprusoff and eventually take over his throne when he no longer plays for Calgary. Very few goalies in the KHL have that type of ability (not including the locked out NHL goalies like Rinne and Varly obviously), but Ramo is one that has it.

    The big obstacle is the transition back over to the smaller ice. If he lands the backup gig to Kiprusoff for next season, he needs to play enough games to allow that transition to take place in a smooth manner. There is no way of knowing how many games he'll need, nor is it known how much of that process he can accomplish by sheerly practicing.

    This is why you have to consider the alternative --- Feaster puts him in the AHL on a two-way contract next season so that he can carry the workload for Abbotsford. That gives Ramo a chance to re-acclimate, a chance to play games and get comfortable, and it's another opportunity for Calgary to ensure he is truly fit for the job with the Flames in future seasons, and he's more of a long-term solution.

    That gives the three goalies currently in Abbotsford a chance to back up Kiprusoff next season. Brust? Taylor? Irving? Take your pick...but it's more likely Brust or Taylor.

    Or they go outside the organization and look elsewhere.

    Bazillions of options, but whatever happens, expect Ramo to be playing in North America next season.

    Great analysis!

    Quick one for you: pick one G between Ramo, Greiss and Khudobin?

    Thanks Justin!
    Last edited by franklin; December 20, 2012 at 8:54 AM.
    Points only keeper league
    7 teams
    28 keepers
    Weekly line up: 12 F / 6 D / 2 G
    Goalie stats: W=2 / SO=2

  14. #239
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    Here is the revised and updated Top-100 Prospects Rankings for January, 2013.

    http://www.thegoalieguild.com/top100prospects/

    Top-25 is now available for free download. GoaliePost and McKeen's members will get the full Top-100 shortly!

  15. #240
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    Default Bachman and Hackett...worth sitting on?

    In a league where I can start 2/day, I am currently wrather full in the Goaltending department, albeit with a fe ?'s

    Anchored by Bryz (Will he ever regain his elite status)
    Halak (great 1st game...horrible 2nd)
    Backstrom (always an injury concern and challenged by Harding)

    I also have, who I feel is, one of the best back up tenders in the Game on the best team in Vokoun.

    Before the start of the season (before I figured there would be a season) I picked up Hackett (after the Harding MS talk and Backstrom ankle injury) and Bachman (looked good last year behind once oft injured Lehtonen.

    As the season is 3 days in and Hacket and Bachman returned to their AHL affiliates, I'm wondering if I should wait on either/both of these guys or cut ties. I'm a little iffy with my 3 #1's, although hope they will assume their usual load and consistency. But with these guys working in the minors, they're serving me no purpose here.

    Do I make a move (perhaps pick up a Turris/McDonald/Erat/Kadri Holmqvist ...all currently available) or stand pat expecting Bachman to get the call up and resume his back up role (Hackett would require an injury which those 2 are quite capable of).

    Others potential goalie replacements are:
    Lehner
    Biron
    Lack
    Nilstorp
    Clemmenson
    S. Mason

    I don't envision any of these guys to be keepers at years end (unless a starting role is likely)?
    Team:
    C - Tavares, Getzlaf, Filppula (C/LW), Namestnikov
    L - Hall (LW/C), Palat, Neal (LW/RW), Pouliot, Perrault(C/LW), Anisimov(C/LW), Hudler (C/LW/RW),
    R - Perry, Kucherov, Draisaitl (C/RW) Stone, Strome (C/RW)
    D - Karlsson, OEL, Carlson, Josi, Stralman
    G - Rinne, Bobrovsky, Crawford, Elliott,
    12 Team Keeper league with Yahoo

    Roster (14 Kept Players): 2C,2LW,2RW,4D,2G,2Util (Can keep a 3rd G with Util)
    SEASON SCORING: 3C,3LW,3RW,5D,1U,2G
    (Weighted Category Points: see below).

    Skaters -
    (Points: G a/o A) 6
    (+/-) 3
    (PIM) 1
    (PPP) 5
    (GWG) 5

    Goaltenders
    (W) 15
    (GA) -10
    (SV) 1
    (SHO) 15

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