My Lecavalier for his Semin

[natgeo]

I am actually the one who offered Semin for Lecavalier. The reason I offered this as a straight up trade are for the following reasons:

1. Semin is five years younger than Vinny, and is showing signs of dominance far earlier in his career than Lecavalier did. Semin is just entering his prime. Vinny didn\'t show Semin\'s kind of PPG pace until he turned 27.

2. In our league scoring format Semin actually had a better Fantasy Points per game rate (7.9/game) than everybody but Ovechkin and Malkin.

3. Semin is playing with Ovechkin, Backstrom and Green on one of the NHL\'s powerhouse teams. Lecavalier is in the mind-numbing no-man\'s land of Tampa Bay, with owners who have made some pretty questionable decisions.

4. LW is a much tougher position to fill than centre.

Sure, Semin\'s potential injury woes have been maddening the last couple of years, but in our league format you can bench him during this period without any extra hassle of waiting for them to go on IR. And when he is playing he is an all-star. He is one of the biggest reasons I won the championship this year, and I\'m not too keen on giving him up unless I get a great player in return. Considering the above points, I still feel Lecavalier is a fair trade, as there are some pretty big questions marks in Tampa Bay at the moment.

In my mind, this is one of those trades that could go either way in hindsight. The two biggest questions: can Semin stay healthy? Can Lecavalier bounce back with an aging St. Louis at his side and despite Tampa\'s woes?

One last point: On Slow train\'s roster, Zetterberg will most likely be transferred to Centre next year, so he does have a major hole at LW to fill. I already have Kopitar, Briere and Stamkos at centre, but I could use another elite guy like Vinny. So positionally I think we both end up winning.

So that\'s my perspective. Anybody care to comment now?

[natgeo]

jefferey wrote:

My counter would be Kovalchuk + Semin for Lecavalier + Marleau.

Semin is a RW now BTW, although maybe your league doesn\'t update positions frequently?

Kovalchuk is a top 5 player when you take into count his LW position so he will more than offset Vinny.

I am not as high on Vinny as the other dobberdrones and I think Semin is one of the top 5 talented players in the league, although yes he is a big baby. I think Marleau is sitting in the 65 point range next year so even if Semin plays 50 games he should match this. He was at something like 1.4 PPG this season.

Hey Jefferey,

It would be nice if Semin were transferred to RW by ESPN for next year. That would take care of one of my problems: trying to find an elite RW. It\'s a huge chess game. One of the guys in our league has Hossa and Kane, another guy has Iginla and St. Louis. Those elite wingers are tough to come by. B)

[Shoeless]

Yup - if Semin is such a great deal, why do you want to trade him for Lecavalier?

[natgeo]

metaldude26 wrote:

Pfft. Instant reject/counter that shit. He\'s the one trying to make the deal here so generally I\'d say he\'s the one who has to make concessions not you. And believe me, adding Varlamov to the mix is a huge concession. Lecavalier for Kovalchuk is a good deal straight up for someone who is looking to make a change. Right now he thinks he can bully you cuz he\'s league champ and wants to buy low on Lecavalier. Personally I\'d tell him to shove it. Lecavalier has better upside than Kovalchuk, he struggled cuz he played the whole year hurt. And it\'s not like injuries have been an issue for him, this is the first season we\'ve seen any injury issues for Lecavalier so he\'ll bounce back fine. And Varlamov, it\'s not like he\'s a true sell high right now, sure his value is through the roof but because he\'s a talented young goalie on an excellent up and coming team. He\'s valued right about where he should be. Tell him he was closer on the first deal but that you think Lecavalier for Kovalchuk is very fair and that you won\'t go much higher.

Those are strong words metaldude. :laugh:

If you were in my position (with three elite LW), who would you try and trade Semin for? I say Semin because I am keen to hang on to Ovechkin and Kovalchuk.

So ... what would be a good trade for me to offer? Which player or players should I target?

[doulos]

Lecavalier for Kovalchuk straight up is a pretty decent deal in my mind.

Semin is a much tougher player to nail down trade value for because opinions seem to really vary on him.

Some guys are really high on him and some want to avoid him because of the injury concerns.

[natgeo]

Shoeless wrote:

Yup - if Semin is such a great deal, why do you want to trade him for Lecavalier?

Hey Shoeless,

That is a question I\'ve asked myself to be honest. It could end up back-firing.

Bottom line: I\'m hoping Dobber is right about Lecavalier and that he bounces back big time. Is there a guarentee he will? Of course not. There are no guarantees in fantasy hockey. But I think there\'s a good chance he will.

Look at this scenario. Say Vinny bounces back to 90+ points next year as I\'m hoping he does. That is probably going to be higher than any of my current centres. Of course, I\'m hoping Kopitar has his big break-out year next year, which MIGHT give me two centres with 90+ point potential.

On the other side, Slown Train will likely win, too. With Zetts probably going to centre, all he would have is Marleau at LW. Semin could really give him a boost at LW.

Of Slow Train\'s other centres, there is really nobody I would trade Semin for other than Vinny. Savard is aging. Sedin doesn\'t have the same elite potential IMO.

So ... if you still don\'t think this is a fair offer Shoeless, I\'d be interested in hearing what you would try to do with my team. I\'m stacked at LW. Semin seems like the best guy to try and move because I\'m not moving Ovechkin, and it probably makes more sense to keep Kovalchuk so I have LW from two different teams.

Who would you try and acquire with Semin?

One last thing: I\'d love to try and get an elite RW, but the owners of Hossa, Kane and Iginla have already stated they are not moving them. Gaborik has more health question marks than Semin IMO, and Hemsky ... well, he just always seems to leave you wanting more. He\'s going into his seventh year and has never busted past 80 points.

[doulos]

This is the beauty of fantasy hockey hey?

Lecavalier - Has 2 seasons of 90+ points including one of 100+, is a C, had a down year for sure, but could be injury related.

Kovalchuk - Has 2 seasons of 90+ points, but is a winger and has never really played with the quality of linemates as Vinny has.

Semin - Never had more then 80 points but likely due to injury concerns. Has shown flashes of brilliance and potential big upside and plays with other great players on his team. Also is a winger.

Savard - A C, 2 90+ point seasons, but is the oldest of the bunch, still got a few good years left at almost 32 years old.


My instinct would be to say that Semin for Savard is a ppretty interesting trade. Semin has never reached the output of Savard but has shown that he \'might\' have that ability. Savard should give a solid 80-85 points at least for the next few seasons.

[doulos]

Besides I think you should just trade me Kovalchuk for Spezza!

[Slow Train]

Things are getting very interesting here.

Very interesting.

[natgeo]

doulos wrote:

Lecavalier for Kovalchuk straight up is a pretty decent deal in my mind.

Semin is a much tougher player to nail down trade value for because opinions seem to really vary on him.

Some guys are really high on him and some want to avoid him because of the injury concerns.

Hey Doulos,

Good to hear from you. Hope the family is doing well. B)

Question: If you had Kovalchuk would you really trade him straight up for Lecavalier? Knowing you a little bit, I\'m pretty sure you wouldn\'t to be honest.

Let\'s look at that scenario:

Over the last four years Lecavalier has had 75, 108, 92, 67 points respectively.

Over the last four years Kovalchuk has had 98, 76, 87, 91 points respectively.

It\'s interesting to note that it took Vinny eight years to reach his 108 point total, while playing on a pretty good TB team with Richards and St. Louis. He was 27 when he hit 108 points.

Kovalchuk hit 98 points when he was 22 years old, playing on an Atlanta team that barely made the playoffs. He had a mediocre 76 points the year Savard went to Boston, but more recently he\'s haad 87 and 91 points while playing with mediocre players at best (Hossa was not a linemate).

Is it fair to think that Kovalchuk\'s best days are ahead of him, especially if he goes to a more competative team? I would say so.

As well, to truly value players one has to look at how easy it is to replace them. Although Semin had a better FPPG pace than Kovy did this past year, I think it\'s not too far-fetched to argue that Kovalchuk is the second most valuable LW in the league behind Ovechkin. Whose comparable? Maybe Heatley. With Zetterberg likely going to centre, that\'s about it IMO.

Now look at Lecavalier. Who could you potentially replace him with? There\'s actually quite a few centres that have 90+ point potential. Malkin, Crosby, Thornton, Spezza, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Getzlaf, E. Staal to name a few who\'ve done it recently.

Clearly, elite wingers are a lot tougher to find and as such are more valuable.

So ... would you trade Kovalchuk straight up for Lecavalier? I didn\'t think so.

I would be interested in hearing who you would target in a trade for Semin. Assuming he isn\'t switched to RW (in which case I would keep him), who would you try to acquire?

[Shoeless]

Natgeo - I don\'t think the deal is too far off and I agree that moving Semin would likely be the best move for your team. I just don\'t think the deal is quite good enough for Lecav. I do think that Lecav for Kovalchuk straightup is relatively good value but in most leagues there needs to be a premium for letting a winger go for a centre of equal value.

Do you see Hemsky as an upgrade over one of your keeper RW? I do, but lot\'s of folks don\'t - I think Kovalchuk and a RW for Lecav and Hemsky might be the fairest deal of all.

[natgeo]

doulos wrote:

This is the beauty of fantasy hockey hey?

Lecavalier - Has 2 seasons of 90+ points including one of 100+, is a C, had a down year for sure, but could be injury related.

Kovalchuk - Has 2 seasons of 90+ points, but is a winger and has never really played with the quality of linemates as Vinny has.

Semin - Never had more then 80 points but likely due to injury concerns. Has shown flashes of brilliance and potential big upside and plays with other great players on his team. Also is a winger.

Savard - A C, 2 90+ point seasons, but is the oldest of the bunch, still got a few good years left at almost 32 years old.


My instinct would be to say that Semin for Savard is a ppretty interesting trade. Semin has never reached the output of Savard but has shown that he \'might\' have that ability. Savard should give a solid 80-85 points at least for the next few seasons.

Sorry to be contrary Doulos, but I see Savard being an impact player for another couple of years at best. His monster years are probably behind him. Semin will turn 25, which is typically when a player enters his prime.

Then there\'s all LW versus C factor.

Even with Semin\'s potential injury issues, I still don\'t see this as a fair trade.

[doulos]

I think given the scoring in this league in particular, including the option of sticking C into the F spots each week it is fairly close, but you are right that I would only do it if I really needed a C for some reason and felt confident in Semin\'s abilities to be an elite type player.


Semin is just such an enigma that his trade value really depends on who you are offering him to.

[Slow Train]

I am really liking the direction Shoeless is going here Matt.

I am in my silk \'\'fantasy trading\'\' PJs right now. Ready to let loose with a blockbuster.

[doulos]

natgeo wrote:

Sorry to be contrary Doulos, but I see Savard being an impact player for another couple of years at best. His monster years are probably behind him. Semin will turn 25, which is typically when a player enters his prime.

Then there\'s all LW versus C factor.

Even with Semin\'s potential injury issues, I still don\'t see this as a fair trade.

Well who am I to disagree with you really, you schooled us all this season!

Again, this whole issue is about Semin\'s value really. I don\'t own him in any leagues as I am really put off by his injury woes. But he certainly has the explosive point nature to him that makes him attractive to many owners.