High Draft Pick ‘Busts’

[zambronies]

With the regular season coming to an end this week, I thought it would be fun to reflect on some of the players that have been labeled ‘busts’ and see how they performed.

J. Slafkovsky - I can’t see how anyone labeled him a bust so early on. Slaf has taken a huge step this year and I think he showed us he can be a fantastic power forward that contributes to multiple categories in dynasty fantasy leagues.

A. Lafreniere - He also took a big step forward this season. His power play time is still minimal, but he put up a total of 57 points this season, with only 6 of those coming from the power play. It may be another season or two before he gets meaningful PP time, but I think he could have added another 20ish points to his total this year if he had top PP deployment. That would have put him close to a PPG player, which is a relief for so many as a lot of us labeled him as a bust.

K. Kakko - I would still categorize this season as a big disappointment for Kakko.

Q. Byfield - His 53 points were a great step forward!

Are there any you would add, or disagree with?

[RizzeeDizzee]

I was not hearing legitimate talk of Byfield or Slaf being busts, FWIW. Guys I'd have instead included are Zadina and Turcotte.

[Pengwin7]

There was a LOT of Slaf doubt / bust-talk around end-December.
Like... a LOT. It was all over these forums. All over twitter.
I think myself & ross10019 were the only two people really showing up to show big faith in Slaf in DEC/JAN/FEB.


end-October: 1pt thru 9gp (9pt season pace)
end-November: 7pts thru 23gp (25pt season pace)
end-December: 13pts thru 37gp (29pt season pace)


Lafreniere, yes, too.
He only had 29pts thru 49gp at end-January.
Picked it up after that.


Byfield has actually been slumping the hardest - but people don't "see" slumps in the 2nd half.
March: 7pts in 14gp
April: 0pts in 8gp



It's true...
Casual hockey fans don't have patience on #1 and #2 picks.
With the years of Ovechkin/Malkin... then Hall/Seguin... then McDavid/Eichel, Matthews/Laine... we tend to expect big things from the #1/#2... and if they aren't performing by early-2nd year... people just write them off.
(Not EVERYONE... but I'd say 75% of casual fans start using terms like "bust" if a guy isn't putting up at least 0.5 ppg in his 2nd year-2nd month)


Gonna be tough for whoever is the 2024 #2 overall pick!!!



The guy that is probably edging REALLY close to "bust" is #5 overall from 2022 draft - Kent Johnson.
I'm just not seeing the "NHL game". He's got skills... but he's soooo soft... and soooo "perimeter".
There's just no INSIDE to his game... and I think the word is out.
Be interesting to see if something changes with him this offseason.

[#10 pick from that draft - Tyler Boucher - I think has already been chalked up as a "OTT just picked him too high" in the same vein as PHI & Jay O'Brien. But a lot of people/teams were high on Kent Johnson as a bonafide top8 pick... and he looks gross out there.]

[Bubba55]

Arthur Kaliyev is another guy who is inching closer to wearing the bust label. He's a year younger than Turcotte and is at least hanging onto a roster spot with the big club but the results are poor and he doesn't seem to have much of a future in LA. He's a guy that needs a change of scenery before he rides too far off into the sunset. I think maybe it's too late for Turcotte though.

[Daydream Nation]

Is it safe to drop Oliver Wahlstrom? I already dropped Cody Glass this year.

[Belexus75]

if we go this far back, Puljujarvi and to some degree Laine , same draft.

[ericdaoust]

Kakko is so far from being fantasy-relevant at 23. I consider that a bust. You don't draft guys 2nd overall to be decent depth players.

[Axeman33]

Nolan Patrick
Lias Andersson
Vitali Kravtsov

If we're putting Zadina in the discussion then Barrett Hayton needs to be right there with him.

Olli Juolevi

I dont know what to make of Alex Nylander. He's been a bust but has really looked good in CBJ after the trade so maybe there's still hope for him.

Kakko has been a bust.

Both Turcotte and Dach have been busts but mainly because neither can stay healthy.

[Pengwin7]

Crazy thing about Kakko is that he's shooting 14.4%, last year & this year.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stat...23/kaapo-kakko
That - at least - suggests he can beat an NHL goalie.

WRITE THEM OFF:
Whereas guys like Zadina (8%), Puljujarvi (8%), Wahlstrom (9%), Lias Andersson (6%), Cody Glass (9.6%)... NHL "shot" just isn't/wasn't there.
Kaliyev... he's supposed to be KNOWN for his shot... so to be at just 8.4% through 188 NHL games... oh mercy... I think that IS a concern.
Cody Glass... meh, doesn't really look like he has complete NHL game. Good 2nd half 2022-23 run with Nashville - this year, IDK, can't say I ever focused on him.

TBD:
Alex Nylander shot 17.7% this year... and... IDK... one would have to review all those goals... I haven't been paying attention.



I'm not ready to write off Kakko yet.
His 13:16 TOI/gp was lowest of his 5 seasons.
NYR is simply DEEP at forward and has better options.
[Last 10gp... 68min w/Wennberg-Cuylle.... 21min w/Wennberg-Brodzinski... he's just not part of the NYR top6]
I'm buying (low) this guy - think he can still hit with another team - but not NYR.

The others... likely, yes.

[loppantorkel]

Kotkaniemi probably deserves a mention in this group as well. A step forward last year, just to step back again this season. 27p and -4 doesn't look great in Carolina.

[Daydream Nation]

Kotkaniemi probably deserves a mention in this group as well. A step forward last year, just to step back again this season. 27p and -4 doesn't look great in Carolina.

That's a good one. Picking Quinn Hughes over Kotkaniemi is one of of my better draft picks that I will recall when I think about the bad moves I've made.

[zambronies]

if we go this far back, Puljujarvi and to some degree Laine , same draft.

Outside of this season where Laine only played a handful of games and was dealing with injuries/issues, Laine put up 108 points in 111 games in Columbus the previous 2 seasons.

[Belexus75]

Outside of this season where Laine only played a handful of games and was dealing with injuries/issues, Laine put up 108 points in 111 games in Columbus the previous 2 seasons.

Still big disappointment in my eyes and not in same boat as others on the list here but he is a bit of a bust thats why i said to some degree...

he was drafted together with Matthews, many including him were saying that leafs made big mistake...injuries or not he has 20 more points than Matthews has goals from a day they were drafted...

Bust/disappointment mean different things to different people nad to me they are expectation based. I had much bigger hopes for Laine...he is NHLer but based on hype he is bust to me.

[zambronies]

Still big disappointment in my eyes and not in same boat as others on the list here but he is a bit of a bust thats why i said to some degree...

he was drafted together with Matthews, many including him were saying that leafs made big mistake...injuries or not he has 20 more points than Matthews has goals from a day they were drafted...

Bust/disappointment mean different things to different people nad to me they are expectation based. I had much bigger hopes for Laine...he is NHLer but based on hype he is bust to me.

I was not aware that Laine said the Leafs made a mistake by not drafting him first overall. That comment certainly didn’t age well! Haha

I appreciate you clarifying your definition of ‘bust’

If you tie him to Matthews, who is making a case to be the best goal scorer of our generation, not many would live up to that hype!

[2014olympicgold]

You'll see a lot of slow development or no development from the draft groups effected by the COVID shutdowns. So 2020-2022 probably are going to have some poor draft results. Not so much in terms of how the NHL teams have developed the players, but more the players didn't have the runway to show their skills to scouts. Guys like Josh Doan, Stankoven and Matthews Knies (2nd round 2021 picks) probably would have been 1st round picks if they had full years of hockey prior to their drafts.