Relative Strength of the 2024 and 2025 drafts

[jman]

So 2023 has been widely regarded as one of the deepest and star studded drafts in years. What are the 2024 and 2025 class looking like. I realize no one has a crystal ball but any insight and opinions are appreciated!

[Pengwin7]

I didn't know 2023 was considered "deep".
Do you have link/source on that?
[Obv - Bedard-Carlsson-Fantilli-Michkov are going to carry "weight" in the 2023 draft... but I feel like the 10-ish on part of the 2023 draft is really suspect/tough/unreliable...]


I believe I've read that was 2024 is offering in the 10-20 range is much better than 2023.
Especially "real world" with all the potential top pairing D-men available.

(As an example, I believe there are in the range of 6-10 defensemen in the 2024 draft better than the 2023 #17 DET pick of Axel Sandin Pellika - who was the 4th D drafted, behind 5-Reinbacher, 6-Simashev, and 11-Willander.)


2025 draft is big IDK for me (& should be for most - though I'm reading the top 3-5 is very nice, better than 2024, obv not nearly 2023).
There's so much development in kids age 16/17 years...
Not sure how anybody is able to peg something like that so far out.

[random-d]

2025 draft is big IDK for me (& should be for most - though I'm reading the top 3-5 is very nice, better than 2024, obv not nearly 2023).
There's so much development in kids age 16/17 years...
Not sure how anybody is able to peg something like that so far out.

Sean Day would like a word with you!

I thought the 2023 draft was really solid, I expect the 2024 one to be similar but with more positional diversity, 2023 was very forward heavy

[Pengwin7]

LOL... boy, I remember Sean Day.
(Thankfully I can say I didn't own him and get burned... nobody knew that downside would exist!!!)

Speaking of Sean Day... all those people that poo-poo the +/- as "insignificant"....
Yup... sometimes its not...

[Weird thing - click that 2015-16 Mississauga Steelheads team... included Alexander Nylander, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, Nic Hague, Owen Tippet, Ryan McLeod, Mason Marchment... talk about a team where the players ended up all over the "map"... and by that I mean... everything. #HockeyCulture?]

[senryu]

So 2023 has been widely regarded as one of the deepest and star studded drafts in years. What are the 2024 and 2025 class looking like. I realize no one has a crystal ball but any insight and opinions are appreciated!

What I've gleaned from reading other people's work is that 2025 is generally superior to 2024, although I'm not able to say specifically in what way. No Bedard level talent, for sure.

[pmorrow]

I have read a number of analysts suggesting the 2024 draft drops off somewhere between 15-20th. The top team first round picks arent being viewed as quite as valuable as past drafts. 2025, probably a bit too early to declare anything decisively, but it does seem like there is some high end talent in that draft as there is this year.

[Pengwin7]

^Hard for fantasy hockey... as there are a few D-men with O-upside dropped down by some people.
As an example, Scouching has a list that ends "Tier 3" at #21... but he has Zayne Parekh (BIG offensive numbers from D-man) leading his "Tier 4" at #22.
https://www.scouching.ca/the-blog/sc...rankings-3r4nt

Parekh lands in at #10 on the "Big Board" consensus kept by Sound of Hockey.
That means that Parekh is damn high on some other lists.

So... really hard - right now - to get a consensus read.
The drop-off might be at 15 for "real NHL" value... but I think
(like the Andrew Cristall/Jayden Perron types from last year...)
...there's some O-heavy guys with questionable "full" NHL game that might be included in fantasy circles.

Links:
2024 Sound of Hockey Big Board (sorts guys by geomean... but doesn't show averaged-rank - which would be helpful to show drop-offs)
2024 Scouching Tier List

Cole Eiserman has been falling hard on most lists... but not
Steven Ellis Daily Faceoff

I quite like Chris Peters (FloHockey).
He's got D in the 2/4/6/10/11/12 spots!
He dropped Eiserman down to 8.
He just put out his list last week... which is interesting because it is NOT include on the "Big Board" consensus.


A bit consistently I'm seeing the Greentree/Chernyshov/Sennecke/Boisvert/Artamonov/Hemming group in the 17-25 range... with the falling Aron Kiviharju.
Does this mean they are "after the drop-off" or "before the drop-off"???
Good question?! IDK. I'm still trying to figure this out because all my own info is via other people's writings.

So yeah... that seems to be a numbers thing right now.
Drop off at 15... or
Drop off at 22-25 ish.
Yikes, IDK.

I also - sometimes - wonder if some of these guys are just piggy-backing off other lists and shifting a guy or two that they've seen and like.
It's a very difficult thing... trying to wear the hat of a Prospect Analyst when there are 7-10 VERY different junior leagues that guys are coming out of!

[Belexus75]

Sean Day would like a word with you!

I thought the 2023 draft was really solid, I expect the 2024 one to be similar but with more positional diversity, 2023 was very forward heavy

2024 does not have same level top talent...but depth wise i agree

[Belexus75]

What I've gleaned from reading other people's work is that 2025 is generally superior to 2024, although I'm not able to say specifically in what way. No Bedard level talent, for sure.

i think Misa is 25...and then bedard cousin is 26 and he spoused to be very good as well

[Axeman33]

Are we talking fantasy or real life?

I find most fantasy drafts have GMs reaching over Dmen for forwards because Dmen are harder to predict (see goalies) and usually take longer to develop but generally have a more linear path to the NHL. It also depends, if we're talking fantasy, your league settings (points only, multicat) come into play as Dmen manly hold value in the peripheral cats compared to guys who are forwards and score a lot in Jr but never get to the NHL.

I think you need to be a bit more specific in your question.

[joe jones]

I am reading many scouts saying that their view on the 2024 draft is improving. Lots of players are really picking it up and moving up the boards (e.g. Iginla)

[Pengwin7]

^Yeah... I've been reading things saying that players thru pick #14 or #18 (depends on person) offers value that might usually be 8-12 range.
So... it seems like a good year to be trying to value-land picks in the "teens".

[joe jones]

^Yeah... I've been reading things saying that players thru pick #14 or #18 (depends on person) offers value that might usually be 8-12 range.
So... it seems like a good year to be trying to value-land picks in the "teens".

unlike last year where many thought there were close to 40-45 'first round talents'

[Pengwin7]

Former Dobber site guy Cam Robinson wrote this recently:

As we see it currently, the prospects ranked fourth to fourteen form one large tier. They all have similar value and could become high-end players for their team, top-six forwards and top-four defencemen.
(That's actually a bit interesting as a statement considering he holds his same "top 4" in Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, and Levshunov.)

In my main "rebuilder" league, I'm typically "bottom four" - so I guess this is as good a year as any to be drafting 10-12 range!!!
Less pressure to pick the right guy at #4/#5/#6 ish.



Another guy on twitter I've been enjoying lately is Alexander Appleyard, who has them this way:


Alexander Appleyard
@avappleyard
Was asked for my provisional
@nhl
draft 2024 rankings a few times in last few weeks. My tiers right now:

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3-6. Catton, Buium, Parekh, Levshunov
7-9. Helenius, Dickinson, Lindstrom
10-15. Greentree, Artamonov, Iginla, Eiserman, Hage, Silayev


[note: I don't see Artamonov & Hage in everybody's list... but the other 13 are pretty consistently there.]

[Eskimo Brother]

As someone who is not a scout, but does a lot of reading of other's evaluations, it's always an interesting question every year. The problem is it can't really be explained in one question, but by multiple smaller ones. The biggest thing for the strength of a draft class is does it have that generational player, and if not, then how much farther below that is the top player?

It seems like Celebrini is in that tier of "excellent franchise player that isn't generational" - similar to J. Hughes, MacKinnon. That makes a big difference when affecting the strength of the class, but it's only relevant for one team in your league.

After that, the question is, how many guys are we betting on to be top of the lineup all-stars, that we can count on as top-50 fantasy players that I want to make sure I draft. In 2020 - 2022 the number might have been lower, but it seems like 2023 was a high-point. I do wonder if this one is a little deeper than expected (similar to 2016 after the fantastic 2015 draft) but I would say it might end up similar to 2020-2022 for forwards, but with a few more Dmen, and no goalies.

Then you get into the question of: well I'm in a dynasty league (say 20-30 teams with a farm of 10-15 players) and I want to know how many guys are worth drafting. In most drafts, that number seems to hover around 40, and except for the guys that NHL teams just let slip way too long like Lane Hutson, the guys picked after 50 or so in any NHL draft aren't worth it, and sometimes that line is as early as 35. This year, based on the lists and inputs I'm reading, it seems like that line is falling somewhere around 40 (I currently have ~35 guys on my list that I would consider drafting at all in my main dynasty league: 24 teams, pro roster of 25, minors of 15 - keep 30 in the offseason and draft your way back up to 40).

All that to get to the point of, well what do we have between #2 and #35, where are the tiers, how hard should I be chasing certain tiers, and where do I trade up/back.

To me, there's a few key points in this draft:
-Ivan Demidov is going to score no matter where he plays. Maybe similar timeline to Michkov to come over to the NHL, but for most fantasy GMs that shouldn't be a deterrent. Possibility of getting a huge impact player like Kucherov or J. Hughes.
-Catton, Lindstrom, Helenius make up the next tier of forwards. After these guys, you might consider trading back, but you porbably don't want to trade out of these slots except for proven top-50 NHL talent.
-Depending on your like for defencemen, Buium, Parekh, and Levshunov should be gone before 10th overall. Very uncommon to have multiple great-bet defencemen like this.
-Eiserman, Yakemchuk, Dickinson, Silayev could have an NHL team really like them and take them in the top-five. there are questions about each, but they are all part of the next tier and could be considered based on what you like/need most. Personally I will have the guys like Silayev and Dickinson who may end up as defensive #3 guys later on my list, but having 35 point defencemen who hit and block a lot more and have a higher floor (say Ryan Pulock like) is definitely tempting.
-Iginla, Greentree, Hage, Connelly are your guys that if you get them after pick 15, you're laughing. The former two might even be top-eight picks in your league and it would be a smart pick. If all the forwards above here are gone, I'm trading down at this point.
-Boisvert, Basha, Artamonov, Parascak, Sennecke, Chernyshov, Brandsegg-Nygard, Jiricek, Hemming are the rest of the top-25, where I have some excitement about them. After that and back to pick 35, I might shop the pick and just make it if I don't get a piece I like.

I'm not far enough into the 2025 draft yet, but to me it sounds like there are 2-3 players similar to Celebrini (or at least above Demidov), and then maybe some higher quality to round out the top-10, but much less uncertain after that.