AM34 running away with the Hart

[Bag Skate]

Isn’t Matthews due for his yearly injury anytime soon? I just feel like he misses a big stretch of games every year. I could be wrong but have never owned Matthews to know for sure.

[Bag Skate]

I just checked and my perception was right. Matthews has yet to prove he can play a full season recently. Also checked current betting odds and if the OP thinks he’s running away with the Hart, there is some good money to be made in placing a wager on it as he isn’t the favorite or even the second favorite.

[2014olympicgold]

Matthews has played 536games in his career. There's been 592games during that time. Or 90.5% of the potential games (74gp/82game season). That's including 2 seasons missing 34games over 2 years. Since the COVID season, he's played in 324games out of 346possible games. Or a 93.6% rate (77gp/82game season).

He's missed 1 game this season. I think he'll stay healthy for the rest of the year, but might miss "rest games" near the end of the season if they can. Missing 5 games in a season isn't that bad now. I looked at some stars GP since 2019-20, and it's below.

Since 2019-20 season (346ish possible games):
Matthews - 324gp
Nylander - 338gp
McDavid - 333gp
Pastrnak - 330gp
MacKinnon - 311gp
Rantanen - 309gp
Kucherov - 254gp

[random-d]

I think anytime there's a standout accomplishment that makes people go "wow, that doesn't happen very often" it's pretty much a shoe-in for the Hart. The "most valuable" anything awards are always about sensationalism. It's not about comparing apples to apples it's about comparing the biggest fruit out there to whatever other fruits there happens to be. I mean if the award were taken literally Hellebucyk probably ought to be in the conversation, but there's nothing sensational about a stingy goaltender carrying his team. If he had 12 shutouts, he might have a case, but nah, no chance as it stands.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Something I'm surprised no one has noted as an argument against him winning is his SH% standing at 21.8%. Yes, for his career he was at 15.7% prior to this season, but that's a big difference. Voters might see him as being more lucky than good.

But to counter that, despite how many goals he has, get this - he's hit 11 posts and 4 crossbars! So he could easily have had a dozen more goals! To say he's dialed in would be a vast understatement. For comparison, McDavid has 8 posts, 3 crossbars, Mac has 6 and 2, and Kucherov has 6 and 1.

[2014olympicgold]

Something I'm surprised no one has noted as an argument against him winning is his SH% standing at 21.8%. Yes, for his career he was at 15.7% prior to this season, but that's a big difference. Voters might see him as being more lucky than good.

But to counter that, despite how many goals he has, get this - he's hit 11 posts and 4 crossbars! So he could easily have had a dozen more goals! To say he's dialed in would be a vast understatement. For comparison, McDavid has 8 posts, 3 crossbars, Mac has 6 and 2, and Kucherov has 6 and 1.

I don't think voters will go that deep into their thinking. Some voters might not vote for Matthews because of an anti-toronto bias, and I think that happens before the "not AM voter" doesn't vote for him because he's shooting at an MVP rate.

I think there was 1 voter who didn't vote Matthews at all for his MVP year, and it turned out it was a reporter from Boston. Like, he didn't vote for him at all for like 5th best that year. That'll happen before a voter goes "man, this guy is shooting at a high percentage".

[rataylor22]

Most people and definitely most reports cant even properly contextualize shooting percentage when it matters. They definitely won't consider it when it doesn't matter.

As for the value thing, I mean the way you win hockey games is scoring goals. The concept of knowing you start every game 1-0 because Matthews is always going to score 1 is pretty valuable! Obviously Matthews isn't scoring every game but hopefully you understand the concept.

[saucelife90]

I don't think voters will go that deep into their thinking. Some voters might not vote for Matthews because of an anti-toronto bias, and I think that happens before the "not AM voter" doesn't vote for him because he's shooting at an MVP rate.

I think there was 1 voter who didn't vote Matthews at all for his MVP year, and it turned out it was a reporter from Boston. Like, he didn't vote for him at all for like 5th best that year. That'll happen before a voter goes "man, this guy is shooting at a high percentage".

I think the pro-Toronto bias is greater than the alternative...

[rataylor22]

I think the pro-Toronto bias is greater than the alternative...

It is very difficult to pull the history of awards voting and make any type of serious argument that there is a pro-Toronto bias to them.

[2014olympicgold]

I think the pro-Toronto bias is greater than the alternative...

It's not like the league has gone out of their way and taken exceptions to rules because they're Toronto. And reporters/media try to avoid the "pro-toronto" label unless you're like Steve Dangle, or "Omar" on Twitter.

But the point of my post was there's a higher chance an "anti-Toronto" reporter wouldn't vote for Matthews because he plays for Toronto than an "anti-Toronto" reporter voting against him because he has a high shooting percentage. Both are unlikely, but ones more likely than the other.

[Belexus75]

Toronto bias is generated by fans and media not the league. League has only NY bias …

[Bag Skate]

Most people and definitely most reports cant even properly contextualize shooting percentage when it matters. They definitely won't consider it when it doesn't matter.

As for the value thing, I mean the way you win hockey games is scoring goals. The concept of knowing you start every game 1-0 because Matthews is always going to score 1 is pretty valuable! Obviously Matthews isn't scoring every game but hopefully you understand the concept.

That’s like saying teams that play Colorado go into their game being down 3-0 because Colorado averages 3.67 goals on the year and therefore know they need 4 goals to beat them.

We understand your concept, it’s just not a good one.

[rataylor22]

Its hard to fully articulate how different and incorrect that statement is in the context of Matthews MVP consideration lmao.

[chuckcouples]

As for the value thing, I mean the way you win hockey games is scoring goals. The concept of knowing you start every game 1-0 because Matthews is always going to score 1 is pretty valuable! Obviously Matthews isn't scoring every game but hopefully you understand the concept.

How is that more valuable than the 1.5 goals that Kucherov/McDavid/Mackinnon create every game? Also, Matthews has 17 games this season without a point.

[blayze]

How is that more valuable than the 1.5 goals that Kucherov/McDavid/Mackinnon create every game?

Cause you can't have an assist without a goal? Can't win a game without a goal? The whole purpose of the game is to score more goals?