AM34 running away with the Hart

[Canucks_fan18]

The thing is at it stands Matthews isn't ahead of anyone until he actually breaks 70. He's on a tear but goal scorers are strikey. He needs to do it first or this conversation is moot.

[LawMan]

Matthews today has 12 more goals than the 2nd place guy. At this pace, by the end of the season Reinhart will have 57goals. Matthews is on pace for 76goals. He's on pace for almost 20 more goals than 2nd place.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8

In 2013-14, Ovi had 51G, and 19G away would be the 15th most goals that year. The 15th goal score in 2023-24 season (prorated) would be 35goals away from Matthews. Reinhart's goal scoring, in comparison to everyone but Matthews, is in line with a normal goal scoring race. This is like the COVID year with McDavid and points, but with Matthews and goals.

This is illuminating and a great analysis. Winning the point race by 20 points is huge, winning the Goal race by 20 is unheardof!
From a percentage perspective 70G to 2nd place 50G is 40% above 2nd place.
McDavid's 153P last season was 20% above 2nd place Draisitl and 35% above Pastranak.

[doulos]

He's on an unreal pace. Pretty cool to watch. How many goals you score "shouldn't" be the big factor in the Hart trophy, but the Hart trophy as always been given out to players for weird reasons so I could see it being the case again this year.

[rataylor22]

The thing is at it stands Matthews isn't ahead of anyone until he actually breaks 70. He's on a tear but goal scorers are strikey. He needs to do it first or this conversation is moot.

This one. The entire crux of the argument is Matthews scoring 70+. Could happen for sure. The reason scoring 50 in 50 is so hard, and the reason Matthews actually getting to 70 is unlikely, is that the longer the season goes the harder it is to keep the pace sustainable. Even where McDavid finished last year was a relative slow down from what he had been pacing for most of the year.

IF Matthews scores 70+ I imagine he is a lock for the Hart and would be deserving. If he only does low to mid 60s, it won't be all that surprising if he doesn't win.

[The Comish]

Something else to consider is AM34 has zero empty net goals. Mac has 7 empty net points, and McDavid and Kucherov both have 5. No freebies for Matthews....

Sooooo, what I'm taking away from this is that AM34 isn't trusted to be out there to protect a lead late in a contest!? lol, I keed, I keed.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Sooooo, what I'm taking away from this is that AM34 isn't trusted to be out there to protect a lead late in a contest!? lol, I keed, I keed.

It wasn't so much that I was surprised to find this out, but that it makes what he's done so much more impressive especially given how many ENGs Ovi has. For his career, Matthews has 8 ENGs, so 8 out of a total of 350, or 2.2%, versus Ovi, for whom 57 of his 848 goals were ENGs, or 6.7%. Ovi's ENG rate is more than triple that of AM34!

[Invictus]

Sooooo, what I'm taking away from this is that AM34 isn't trusted to be out there to protect a lead late in a contest!? lol, I keed, I keed.

Leafs would have to first have a lead....

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[Rylant]

The odds account for the possibility AM doesn't continue his current pace (which is fair). If he does continue at his current pace, then you'll see the odds narrow fast and he will quickly separate himself.

Just think about it. There's nothing unique about what Mack/Kuch/McJesus are doing. You're gonna have 3 guys who are all statistically about the same. They're not gonna win by posting 120+ points (which happens almost every year).

Then you've got the first 70+ goal scorer in over 30 years. We haven't seen anything like this since Selanne and Almo! It's a no brainer if he pulls it off.

I am not trying to devalue what Matthews is doing. However, the Hart Trophy criteria is not supposed to be awarded to the player who accomplishes the rarest feat, it is supposed to go to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team. Now granted, how valuable somebody is to their team is really difficult to judge. I would argue, that somebody who accomplishes something that hasn't been done in 30 years, doesn't necessarily make them the most valuable player in the league to their team. Matthews is amazing; however I would say that, to suggest that he is "running away with the Hart" or that awarding him the Hart is a "no brainer if he pulls it off", is silly.

Rylant

[Belexus75]

The thing is at it stands Matthews isn't ahead of anyone until he actually breaks 70. He's on a tear but goal scorers are strikey. He needs to do it first or this conversation is moot.

and as soon as he hits it, the conversation is over....

[Belexus75]

I am not trying to devalue what Matthews is doing. However, the Hart Trophy criteria is not supposed to be awarded to the player who accomplishes the rarest feat, it is supposed to go to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team. Now granted, how valuable somebody is to their team is really difficult to judge. I would argue, that somebody who accomplishes something that hasn't been done in 30 years, doesn't necessarily make them the most valuable player in the league to their team. Matthews is amazing; however I would say that, to suggest that he is "running away with the Hart" or that awarding him the Hart is a "no brainer if he pulls it off", is silly.

Rylant

if Hart Throphy goes to MVP in the true meaning of this award, at least 50% of last 20 winners should not win it....it goes to the guy who makes biggest splash over 82 game one way or another...right or wrong.

What it should be and what it actually is are not the same thing unfortunately

[Axeman33]

if Hart Throphy goes to MVP in the true meaning of this award, at least 50% of last 20 winners should not win it....it goes to the guy who makes biggest splash over 82 game one way or another...right or wrong.

What it should be and what it actually is are not the same thing unfortunately

Sounds exactly like my Norris Trophy argument.

[hockeyrobot]

It wasn't so much that I was surprised to find this out, but that it makes what he's done so much more impressive especially given how many ENGs Ovi has. For his career, Matthews has 8 ENGs, so 8 out of a total of 350, or 2.2%, versus Ovi, for whom 57 of his 848 goals were ENGs, or 6.7%. Ovi's ENG rate is more than triple that of AM34!

Ovi is just trusted to protect a lead more than Matthews is. A defensive stalwart.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Ovi is just trusted to protect a lead more than Matthews is. A defensive stalwart.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but Matthews' comparative lack of "freebies" makes his pace all the more impressive.

[hockeyrobot]

I'm not disagreeing with you, but Matthews' comparative lack of "freebies" makes his pace all the more impressive.

Oh....I was joking.

But the ENG argument doesn't really do anything for me right now. AM34 has a long way to go and a LOT has to go right in terms of health.

[hockeyrobot]

I am not trying to devalue what Matthews is doing. However, the Hart Trophy criteria is not supposed to be awarded to the player who accomplishes the rarest feat, it is supposed to go to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team. Now granted, how valuable somebody is to their team is really difficult to judge. I would argue, that somebody who accomplishes something that hasn't been done in 30 years, doesn't necessarily make them the most valuable player in the league to their team. Matthews is amazing; however I would say that, to suggest that he is "running away with the Hart" or that awarding him the Hart is a "no brainer if he pulls it off", is silly.

Rylant

Bingo. Quarter of the season to go.