Dahlin vs Q. Hughes

[aroundthefur922]

I own Dahlin in a keep-4 auction league and have been sent multiple offers that include my Dahlin and another manger’s Quinn Hughes. Huts and blocks are categories in our format and the keeper prices are $39 for Dahlin and $29 for Hughes over the next 2 years. Which would you prefer of the two for the given prices and categories?

[senryu]

In most systems, Hughes has outperformed Dahlin straight up this year. On that alone, Hughes at $10 cheaper makes him the better asset. Even if Hughes regresses some due to the PDO monster, that probably gets them to even, which is still a Hughes win. I don't see how, barring injury, Dahlin can be counted on to be 25% more valuable than Hughes for the next 2 years.

[aroundthefur922]

Thank you for the input and factoring in the possible regression. In my league Dahlin is the higher ranked player (18 vs 33 respectively) due to the hits/blocks categories.

[senryu]

Ah, well then that changes the analysis if your own league gives Dahlin the advantage. If your system has Dahlin being clearly superior to Hughes, then it makes it much closer a question. Then it seems that their monetary values are pretty aligned, more or less. Again, I expect Quinn to regress a little next year, and Dahlin to be about the same. If that's the case, then I might want to keep Dahlin just in the hope that he takes a step forward like Hughes did this year. Or we can fall back to the general rule, if you've got a top 20 talent or value, let someone else bowl you over to make you deal the player. Don't deal big talent on the hope of making a small margin.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Hughes is outstanding, but a rising tide is lifting his boat at least somewhat - that is, part of why he's doing comparatively better this season is the team around him doing better. Yes, he's shooting more so that helps, but I don't see him as the 100 point defenseman he is now. Dahlin, on the other hand, is an amazing talent in his own right. Also, don't mistake his 2023-24 stats for him not being elite. He has IPPs that are extraordinary for a defenseman, but his team's on ice shooting percentage is 6.5%, which is lower than his own personal shooting percentage. He also is tied for seventh in percentage of games with at least one point, but only 13th in games with 2+ points. And the fact he is far and away the better multicat guy can't be ignored. I want to own Dahlin in your format, even over Hughes.

[Feenom]

Dahlin is the better option for your league.

[Swarley]

I’d go with Dahlin