NHL Team Totals Challenge 2023-2024 - Discussion

[Eskimo Brother]

I went with my same strategy from last year, loading up on early GFs, as they are the most projectable, moving to SA next as that's the second most projectable, and picking up whatever Sv% numbers I could find at the end that might be closer to middle-of-the-pack than then bottom. I was a lot more confident last year than I am this year. My GF teams should be fine, but I really don't think I found much of a steal in the Sv% column unless Merzlikins really picks things up behind an improved defence.

I have a double-stack of both CGY and PIT on offence and defence, so I'm really hoping for a rebound from those two. I think they both are due for an improvement, so we'll see how it goes. Enjoy the season folks!

[Pengwin7]

My picks (with expected points based on draft position, avg expected, and prediction)
1.5. Pengwin7 - Bruins SV% (29-31, avg30, p:28). This was first team off the board for SV%. Hard to get an expected "top" finish - but you want your top choice to be top5 lock... this felt close after seeing the top3 offense and consensus D-system (CAR) go.
2.16 Pengwin7 - Predators SV% (26-28, avg27, p:25). Although the Preds are thin team on offense, I do like both their goalies (esp.Saros) and their D-core.
3.25 Pengwin7 - Kings GF (23-25, avg24, p:22). Emerging team is now 3 lines deep.
4.36 Pengwin7 - Golden Knights GF (20-22, avg21, p:22). Thought this was my 3rd best "value" of draft. I think VGK could be 4th-8th overall scoring team. (I don't think they can top EDM,TOR,NJ though)
5.45 Pengwin7 - Canucks GF (16-19, avg17.5, p:20). Enormous potential range here, but felt like good value - and more wanted to not fall into the upcoming teams that could be "bottom 8" potentials.
6.56 Pengwin7 - Senators SV% (13-15, avg14, p:17). Even with depleted center depth - the OTT D core (like NAS) is very solid and I think that will help limit "high quality" opponent SH%.
7.65. Pengwin7 - Senators SA (10-12, avg11, p:15). My 2nd favourite pick for "value". Hopefully Pinto signs - because centers are important. That said - OTT has some solid wingers that can play two-way.
8.76 Pengwin7 - Blue Jackets SA (7-9, avg8, p:12). I debated leaving this for 9th round - but I thought we had enough smart guys that would see the value here with the added D, healthy Werenski, and new F. This might be only pick with potential for 16+ points in last 2 rounds.
9.85 Pengwin7 - Flyers SA (4-6, avg5, p:6). PHI stinks, but their centers have good two-way acumen... and I'm mostly counting on that help with Torts' system. The D-pletion of the offseason does worry me - but having TonyD off roster should help. The "kids" are more likely going to be told by Torts to just play D and not take ANY risks. Hopefully PHI has some mid20s vs. mid20s shot games, with majority around ~30sa. Obv - like them better than MON, ARI, CHI... ANA... SJ. Yuck on those last two.

I don't love this team... and prefer the GF-heavy strategy - but do think this set should finish me btw 3rd-5th place.
My predicted scores, p:##, are bolded.
Goal is to finish within 3 points of each prediction.

[pmorrow]

I thought Bruins sv pct was a smart grab after thinking about it. I was surprised at first but it's actually pretty secure to have a team with two starter calibre goalies - some teams if they lose their starter to injury have a giant drop off in talent. With Boston you are very safe in your investment.

[Invictus]

Is the sheet now on the regular season?

Not yet. Set to this years preseason.

I can't seem to import the table from Natural Stat Trick for this years pre-season or season. So I'm going to have find a different site and then modify the spreadsheet to work with it.

[Invictus]

1.1	Oilers GF	Highest confidence this can repeat as first
2.1	Avalanche SV%	Avs SV% has been pretty consistent and lots of GF and SA were taken (already had one GF)
3.1	Panthers GF	Last year I think they got snake bitten and can do better. Little worried with Montour and Ekblad out.
4.1 5.1	Jets SA Canucks SA	With one SV% taken already I had my eyes on some SV% for further down in the rankings. Taking two SA here was a big mistake. I looked at Canucks GF and I should have picked that. Big drop in that and I think there still would have been lots of solid SA left for me when it got back to me. Kicking myself for this misplay.
6.1	Oilers SA	After the Tyson Barrie trade Oilers cut their SA down by 1 shot per game. That average would be good enough for 15th.
7.1	Lightning SV%	Needing two SV% I decided to shave that to just one. Even with Vas injury Lightning SV% was just too enticing to pass up here. This started a SV% run that unfortunately saw all my hopefuls disappear.
8.1	Blue Jackets GF	Not much options left at this point, just hoping for Gaudreau and company to figure it out. Hopefully a healthy Werenski can help.
9.1	Flyers SV%	Thinking between Anaheim and Flyers here. Decided on the Flyers as they started to really clog up the middle more nearing the end of the season, which helped Hart. Hoping this continues.

Pretty happy with my draft minus the Canucks GF mistake that lost me 10-15 points (by expectations).

[Invictus]

Importing season stats from Natural Stat Trick now magically works.

Dashboard now set to current season stats.

[tweetdrivr]

Thanks for doing this!!

[pmorrow]

Importing season stats from Natural Stat Trick now magically works.

Dashboard now set to current season stats.

Thank you once again Invictus, it makes the league way more fun!

[4T2]

Yeah thanks Invictus! Looking forward to seeing how the season unfolds

[Sixtyfourbits]

Thanks Invictus! and thanks to everyone for letting me be a part of it this year. I was a bit worried I would make some pick blunders, but overall I'm pretty happy with how my team shaped up.

[Pengwin7]

Big thanks Invictus for the tracker!
Thanks pmorrow for setting up.

No thanks to OTT for the opening shelling... double-ugh (SA & SV%).

[Pengwin7]

Checks standings....
Checks standings-by-rate...
Nods...
(I like this league better than my fantrax player-pick-league where I'm 13/15.)

Watching the Boston goalies... yes, sir.

[Pengwin7]

Man... VAN put up 10 goals last night vs SJ.
#WestCoastPicks -VGK,LA,VAN
(Fist pump)

[Invictus]

More goals then Edmonton has gotten all year :/ :/ (not really but bleh)

I knew I screwed up by not picking VAN GF , and boy are they proving that right!

Grats on the pick

[pmorrow]

Imagine if someone had been stuck with San Jose this year lol. In any category