Scouting the scouts

[Eskimo Brother]

I know this is a tough question to ask, as for many their answer is a closely guarded secret.

However, I would like to start doing some tracking, research, and analysis on who the most successful public scouts are, as it seems like it's a bit of an unrefined resource.

For fantasy hockey, I know the DobberProspects group gives us some great insight, specific since they look at the fantasy hockey angle.

I would like to be able to add my own flavour and context to everything out in the public sphere though, and I figured getting some help from the masses on a few things would be a good way to kick it off.

Specifically I'm looking for:
-Data on rankings from previous seasons for a variety of sources.
-Input on the best way to rank previous drafts and how to compare it to the pre-draft rankings in an unbiased way.
-Some of your favourite scouts, if you will share.

Cheers!

[stevegamer]

Somebody posted this and I bookmarked it. It's a big board of prospect rankings pre-draft. The issue is that it's relatively new, so most useless for right now for determining who does how well at picking things:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1951456987

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, the fun part is trying to find those kinds of data sets for previous years.

[metaldude26]

I don't have data sources on who does the best but I try to read everyone in the public sphere:

Pronman/Wheeler - TheAthletic
Dobberprospects
Sam Cosentino - Sportsnet
Bob McKenzie - TSN
Tony Ferrari - The Hockey News
Cam Robinson - Elite Prospects
Byron Bader - Hockey Prospecting
Chris Peters - FloHockey
Will Scouch - McKeen's/Scouching

I'm mostly looking for outliers, but also to get the general sense of a prospect and what type of player they may become if they hit.

[finnys_fanatsy]

id like to see Sam Cosentino's record. i love what he has to say generally on these kids....imo hes top of the list, but he might be shooting sunshine up my nether regions too lol

[Axeman33]

I don't have data sources on who does the best but I try to read everyone in the public sphere:

Pronman/Wheeler - TheAthletic
Dobberprospects
Sam Cosentino - Sportsnet
Bob McKenzie - TSN
Tony Ferrari - The Hockey News
Cam Robinson - Elite Prospects
Byron Bader - Hockey Prospecting
Chris Peters - FloHockey
Will Scouch - McKeen's/Scouching

I'm mostly looking for outliers, but also to get the general sense of a prospect and what type of player they may become if they hit.

No Button?

[YzermansLegacy]

For me I lean HARD towards what Cam Robinson says. Aside from the Dobber history, I just tend to agree with his thoughts 99% of the time with the guys I watch - so I defer to his thoughts on all the guys he watches and I don't.

Otherwise - like MD - I try to get a sense of ALL the major guys' preferences before landing myself (which often means watching a little video myself to see what aligns).

One other note - I always take Bobbie Mac's list (from scouts) as the gold standard for where someone will be drafted and their potential NHL likelihood... BUT... I almost never use THAT list to figure out my 'fantasy hockey' preferences.

Sorry no info on data sets though

[metaldude26]

No Button?

I'm sure he's not the only one I forgot and left off. I read everyone. Except Recruites - I don't have a subscription there.

[Axeman33]

I'm sure he's not the only one I forgot and left off. I read everyone. Except Recruites - I don't have a subscription there.

Gotcha. Just wasn't sure if that was intentional or not.

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, I'm with you guys that looking for the outliers and the ones that the public guys stick their necks out for because they believe in them and not just because they want to generate attention/clicks, are the ones you end up keying in on a little more.

[chuckcouples]

I read what these people say but for the most part they have a different goal than an actual NHL scout. These guys are all, first and foremost, trying to make a buck by selling subscriptions or products. The actual NHL scouts are trying to help their teams get better. This is why I put all my trust in the actual NHL amateur scouts who are getting paid by NHL teams. If these writers were any good at being scouts, NHL teams would be hiring them.

If you can find what actual NHL scouts are saying you will be much further ahead but always remember that a good player in the NHL is not necessarily a good player in your fantasy league. For example, a 3rd line center who kills penalties and defends well against top lines is a very valuable NHL player but they likely have zero value in your fantasy league.

[Daydream Nation]

I read what these people say but for the most part they have a different goal than an actual NHL scout. These guys are all, first and foremost, trying to make a buck by selling subscriptions or products. The actual NHL scouts are trying to help their teams get better. This is why I put all my trust in the actual NHL amateur scouts who are getting paid by NHL teams. If these writers were any good at being scouts, NHL teams would be hiring them.

If you can find what actual NHL scouts are saying you will be much further ahead but always remember that a good player in the NHL is not necessarily a good player in your fantasy league. For example, a 3rd line center who kills penalties and defends well against top lines is a very valuable NHL player but they likely have zero value in your fantasy league.

Your second paragraph is key which is why I focus on what fantasy draft analysts say more than the draft order. I suspect guys like Rienbacher, Wallinder, and Danielson wll have a better chance at a productive NHL career but I'll take guys like Benson and Sandin Pellikka before them even though drafted later since I feel they'll be better fantasy players if they hit.

[Axeman33]

I read what these people say but for the most part they have a different goal than an actual NHL scout. These guys are all, first and foremost, trying to make a buck by selling subscriptions or products. The actual NHL scouts are trying to help their teams get better. This is why I put all my trust in the actual NHL amateur scouts who are getting paid by NHL teams. If these writers were any good at being scouts, NHL teams would be hiring them.

If you can find what actual NHL scouts are saying you will be much further ahead but always remember that a good player in the NHL is not necessarily a good player in your fantasy league. For example, a 3rd line center who kills penalties and defends well against top lines is a very valuable NHL player but they likely have zero value in your fantasy league.

Sure, but if these guys weren't somewhat knowledgeable in what they are doing, they wouldn't be working for long at these "click sites"/major broadcasting organizations either. I dont think their goal is anything but to try and be as accurate as possible to the actual NHL draft. Every NHL team has a different list, just like these writers have different lists. Who's to say the writers aren't more accurate than the NHL scouts? It's not like they get it right all that often themselves when you look at the number of players selected versus the number of players who make it.

That being said, from the list that MD26 offered as key guys to follow, how many of them have actual NHL scouting experience? In other words, were at one time, employed by an NHL team to scout professionally for them. Craig Button certainly does. Is he the only one?

Bob McKenzie's "list" isn't something he's developed because he's out scouting anyone. His list comes from his contacts within the NHL teams, talking to scouts and developing a list based off their insider rankings.

Guys like Pronman, Wheeler, and Cosentino are guys with journalistic backgrounds who just write about prospects. Now that's not to say they dont go out and watch prospects but do they really know what a real scout looks for.

Bader and Scouch I believe deal more on the analytical side of scouting but I may be wrong on that one.

Ferrari, Robinson and Peters, to the best of my knowledge, are just guys who love going to the rink, watching prospects and looking at what they see based on their own personal experiences. I dont think any of them have ever actually worked as a scout for anyone, other than publications.

I guess my point being, reading these "scouting reports" online for research of your fantasy drafts is just as subjective as taking fantasy advice some random guy on a website like this one. The actual NHL scouts are not going to tell you their rankings before drafts so the only real way to try and gauge their rankings is by who they actually draft once it's all said and done.

If anyone is interested, and listens to podcasts, the Dobber Prospect Report podcast has had a couple different NHL scouts on, talking about what they look for when scouting players etc. They recently just had Kraken scout, Chris MacDonald, on there. It was a good listen.

[random-d]

Elite prospects has a really good subscription service but if you're not into the paywall model their Youtube channel has good annotated videos.

Future Considerations is a decent resource, I know for a fact they've had people who went on to take jobs as NHL scouts working for them.

A couple of Youtube channels I really like because they annotate their clips and they show more than just the goals the player scored.

Daniel Gee
Recrutes Hockey

I'm pretty sure they're Vancouver/Montreal fans so they sometimes spend extra time on those prospects but the work they do is still quality.

Also, I saw someone mention Will Scouch earlier. He gave up on the Youtube channel and it sounded like he was getting out altogether, is he still doing work somewhere else?

[marc1pol2]

Funny cause I'm reading a book call Noise that explain why human-being are making errors when making a judgment and how to bypass them. In fact, where there is a human judgment, there is always noise and bias that provoke error. This clearly apply to the context of hockey scouting; noise and bias can significantly diminish the accuracy of judgment. Noise, stemming from fluctuations in player performance or scout evaluations, can lead to overemphasizing individual game outcomes or streaks, making it challenging to gauge a player's true long-term potential. Bias can arise from subjective preferences, regional loyalties, or stereotypical assumptions about players, distorting the assessment process. For instance, if a scout has a bias towards selecting players from their hometown or prefers certain playing styles, it may lead to overlooking promising talent or making unfair judgments. It is proven that even a simple modelization results in better outcomes than human judgement. So, to identify the better public scout, I would look for those that use data-driven models that can reduce noise by considering comprehensive player statistics and mitigate bias by evaluating players based on standardized criteria, ultimately enhancing the ability to identify and develop top prospects more fairly and accurately. If I could easily acces to database from different league, I could work on a model, but it is very difficult to find usable stats for junior leagues.