Samsonov's value

[Sixtyfourbits]

I'm trying to gauge Samsonov's value compared to other goalies around the league. On July 21st Dobber had him ranked as the 13th best keeper goalie. Since then, we have found out Matt Murray will miss the upcoming season on LTIR, and Samsonov has signed a new one year contract. Do these things change his rank? I'm not a leafs fan, but it seems Samsonov is going to get to play a decent amount of games this year for a perennial contending team.
I'm in a 3 keeper league with 14 teams, and I'm trying to decide on my last keeper between Evander Kane and Ilya Samsonov. Categories are G, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, and SHO. Decent goalies always seem to go pretty early in the draft in this league.

[jdreed3184]

In a league where the top 42 players are kept, I don't think either Kane or Samsonov would be keepers. What's the rest of your roster look like?

But to answer your question - I'd probably keep Samsonov. He will start a ton, win a bunch, and would have to perform very poorly to lose the job. You can then spend that draft pick higher upside players.

[Sixtyfourbits]

In a league where the top 42 players are kept, I don't think either Kane or Samsonov would be keepers. What's the rest of your roster look like?

But to answer your question - I'd probably keep Samsonov. He will start a ton, win a bunch, and would have to perform very poorly to lose the job. You can then spend that draft pick higher upside players.

I did move a few players out for draft picks last year, so that has limited my options a bit. With that said, Evander Kane is actually decently valuable in our league, due to his high shots, hits and points, if he can stay healthy. Starter goalies also carry pretty decent value, that's why those two are battling for my third keeper spot. I'm currently keeping Makar and Saros as well. Another option for my third keeper would be Heiskanen, though given our categories I was more leaning towards the other two.
I'm thinking of leaning Samsonov, as starting goalies for decent teams who aren't in a time share are getting more rare it seems.

[Pengwin7]

I would definitely keep Samsonov for this year.
I will be keeping him as my only goalie keeper in my 12-team league (PQMC).


There's sort of a win-win here, IMO, for Treliving.
IF Samsonov does well, and let's say Toronto wins TWO playoff series', then BT looks great for keeping him at an arb-number that allowed TOR to load-up on skater-value.
IF Samsonov flames out, well - it was only one year and BT can go hunting for "his" goalie.


Either way - Samsonov is now on "Treliving's terms"... not Dubas'
And I think that can only pan out well for the Leafs.

As for Samsonov himself... well... he's playing for a future contract.
(I don't subscribe to hockey players playing any better or less because its a "contract year" - but I do think they are less up to "give up" in a game that's already lost if their GAA & SV% for season are at stake).

And... of course, the backup is the young Woll.
So Samsonov should be looking at a boatload of starts.

I think he'll be a top10 goalie for THIS YEAR in fantasy hockey.
Good keep, IMO - especially in partial keepers where somebody is able to just flex him out next year if he stinks.

[stevegamer]

I'd also keep Samsonov.

I know the performing to seal a promotion, determine your next year's bonus percentage, or get a new contract is real. I've seen it plenty of times in real life, albeit not at the pro sports level, but we all know there;s at least a little extra incentive.

The more important thing is that you have Wins & Saves which are volume categories, SHutouts, which are part volume starts, part random, and save%, which he's been at least okay at - that's solid.

[lucafen4]

Samsonov is the starting goalie on a top 5 team for the 23/24 regular season.
He'll get 50-55 starts. You keep Samsonov. You need to target Woll to lock down the starts

[Sixtyfourbits]

Thanks everyone for the feedback, I appreciate it. I like the idea of having both my goalies kept, so that I don't have to worry about when the goalie run starts in the draft and then panicking and making a poor choice in the heat of the moment.
Cheers everyone!

[Hucherov]

If I understand correctly, in a keep 3, OP is considering keeping two goalies, with only one (Saros) potentially elite. Not sure I'd do that. Would really love to see rest of roster.

[tweetdrivr]

You have a solid tiered draft list so that when the goalie run starts you know who and when you should be targeting a goalie so you don’t make a panic move. Also, goalies are voodoo. In a keep 3 with these stats I’m not keeping either of these goalies.

[jdreed3184]

You have a solid tiered draft list so that when the goalie run starts you know who and when you should be targeting a goalie so you don’t make a panic move. Also, goalies are voodoo. In a keep 3 with these stats I’m not keeping either of these goalies.

Yeah, this is what I was getting at above. If you're keeping two goalies, then your forwards must be below average (I'd love see the whole roster). And if goalies go quick in the draft, curious if you could move Saros or Samsonov for a top tier forward keep?

[Sixtyfourbits]

Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and insight. I'll share my roster, and try to explain a bit about my league, to maybe better explain why I'm leaning Samsonov.
Its a 14 team, keep 3 each. I sold quite a few decent players this year, to better my stock of draft picks for next year, while still ending in third this year. With it being keep 3 only, there should be a decent amount of decent players going back into the draft. I could trade some draft picks for a better player, but I feel I'm better off taking Makar, Saros and Samsonov/Kane, and using the higher picks at the draft.
In this league, it seems goalies go early, and there is extra value for wingers who take draws. I tend to concentrate more on peripheral categories and the goalie categories, and then hope I win a few points categories here and there.
Also, knowing its a keep 3 only, at times in the playoffs we make tough cuts to stay alive. So some of the players on my roster are more remnants of the payoff schedule than who I actually rostered during the year.

Here is my full roster after trades, playoff moves, etc.
hayton - c
backlund - c
mcbain - c
s bennett - c (ir)
e kane - lw
debrusk - lw/rw
b schenn - c/lw
necas - rw
hartman - c/rw
heiskanen - d
girard - d
carlson - d
lauzon - d
makar - d
manson - d
saros -g
samsonov - g

Looking at it from a draft perspective, I do feel I'd have an easier time redrafting any of these guys later than Makar, saros, samsonov/kane. I thinned out my team pretty good at the trade deadline, and relied on hits, fw, goalie categories, blocks and luck to limp through the rest of the season and playoffs.

[jdreed3184]

Yeah - that's a pretty rough roster I get why you're keeping Samsonov.

I'd probably do the same - but I'd definitely try to trade Saros or Samsonov (depending on whoever got higher return) for an elite forward.

[Sixtyfourbits]

Yeah - that's a pretty rough roster I get why you're keeping Samsonov.

I'd probably do the same - but I'd definitely try to trade Saros or Samsonov (depending on whoever got higher return) for an elite forward.

Rough indeed! hahaha
I am definitely open to trading samsononv/kane if they can net me an elite forward and the draft pick sweetener isn't too costly. I have 3 2nd's and 3 3rd's, but I'm pretty hesitant to move any of my higher picks unless its a real elite level talent coming back, as the draft pool should have some decent options in those rounds.

[lucafen4]

with hits sog & PIM

I would choose: E.Kane Makar & Samsonov
as my 3 keepers.

Makar's the clear no brainer

Kane's right behind Ovechkin & B & M Tkachuk in this format.
This format was built for him.

and Samsonov

Samsonov > Saros
not sure the extra starts by Saros will make up the difference.
Leafs should finish 20-ish pts higher than Preds (110-115 vs. 90-95 at best))

I see you count saves.
Also not convinced Nsh gives up more shots than Tor during the season.
hard pressed to want to own Saros' backup.

I would draft Woll to lock the Leafs net down. You'll get 50+ wins between the two.

[Invictus]

Thanks everyone for the feedback, I appreciate it. I like the idea of having both my goalies kept, so that I don't have to worry about when the goalie run starts in the draft and then panicking and making a poor choice in the heat of the moment.
Cheers everyone!

Mock drafts help!!! Practice and improve.

Tough to lose Saros, but in a keep 3 league I doubt you will be able to move (saros + someone) for a keeper upgrade.