Crystal Ball - Goalie Prospect + Team on the rise

[happypg]

Hello Everyone!

In my league, we can have four goalies and I currently own three. I plan to draft one as goalies are gold in my league. I keep thinking, you can have the best goalie prospect but if the team in front of him is garbage, he isn't going to be an asset. As an example, I drafted a young John Gibson when ANA was on the rise and had some great years with him. ANA started a rebuild and I eventually traded him for a draft pick where I got Swayman. I get it, goalies are voodoo and all that. I was just thinking, what young prospect goalie would you target where the player talent matches a team on the rise. Example; I really like Wolf, but what is going on in CGY? Things like that. Of course timeline comes into play. I'll say someone that will be expected to be a 1A in the next 3 seasons. I'll list a few names below to get people thinking.

Kochetkov (CAR)
Tarasov (CBJ)
Wolf (CGY)
Askarov (NAS)
Dostal (ANA)
Sogaard (OTT)
UPL (BUF)
Hofer (STL)
Levi (BUF)
Wallstandt (MIN)
Schmid (NJ)
Wall (TOR)
Cossa (DET)

Thanks for your thoughts!

[Pengwin7]

I agree with your thought process.
The best timing/fit in the league, I think, is Wallstedt (MIN).
They have to grind out two years of cap hell with the Suter/Parise hits... and then they clear a massive amount of cap space.

Hopefully they can hold Kaprizov and re-sign.
Boldy AND Rossi should be high-end come 2025-on.
Wallstedt will be full-time ready to go (probably back up in 2024-25).
Ohgren & Yurov (2022) are hopefully playing middle6 minutes.

Nashville has gone into a DEEP re-build, but they could turn it around VERY quick if they reap assets for Saros at top of his game.
Chance they move him THIS year for big package. He has no trade protection.
Askarov - I think - is best goalie prospect by pure skills.
Nashville could rise-up quickly. Unf, downside, they don't have any HIGH-end forwards in their pipeline.
But... Vegas didn't really either - they just made a couple keen trades when they felt close.

Levi (BUF) is the wildcard.
That team is loaded for forward talent.
They are stacked now on D with two absolute HIGH-END monsters in Dahlin/Power.
Levi's NCAA numbers are undeniably good.
His pedigree/skill is high, high-end.
But - and really, true - he hasn't yet had to face a men's league type of shooter group.
We'll see how he does in AHL.

Dostal is another sneaky guy.
ANA will eventually move Gibson.
Anaheim is going to be great. People aren't high on them yet because they don't have a "sexy" forward beyond Zegras.
But they have a 3-headed D-monster coming in Drysdale/Mintyukov/Zellweger... and they'll have enough top6 power with Zegras/Carlsson/McT/Terry/R.Strome + veteranCupKillorn.

Wolf's SV% is fantastic.
In league's that count GAA/SV% with weight... I wouldn't just pass on him because Calgary might not be "good".
CGY's "team defense" should continue to be excellent with Weegar & Rasmus.
They might stumble to win games... but that's like avoiding Saros last year & this year because Nashville's forwards aren't great.

Kochetkov will take over in Carolina in 1 or 2 more years.
I know this team has been great, but Slavin/Orlov/Burns/Skjei/Pesce/Aho/Teuvo are all 1-2 years from UFA.
The team could crumble if Aho chooses to leave and the team upside dwindles.
The East is TOUGH right now... super TOUGH... and there's a potential for a lot of teams to crumble fast.
CAR is one that could happen to.

They'll need to offer Aho $10m... and Slavin probably $9m-$10m.
I don't seem them surviving with as deep & solid a team after they have to do that.


So - for me, if TeamQuality is factored in:
1a. Wallstedt
1b. Askarov
...
3. Levi
4. Wolf
5. Kochetkov
2-6 big range. Dostal

[Pengwin7]

^All this said...

I tried to do this myself 3+ years ago.
I had drafted & held & held & held... Mads Sogaard (OT) and UPL (BUF) and both were seen as their team's clear Goalie-of-the-Future.
Then they both stumbled hard against *tough* AHL competition.
I basically ended up dropping both in the past two years.

Fast forward to this year, OTT signed Korpisalo for 4+ years... and BUF now has Levi (& Topias Leinon)

Point being - just go with clear top quality G if you can get them.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with Dustin Wolf.
If he's the cheapest prospect G you can get... then go with him!

[stevegamer]

This is a solid idea. I did this with Shesterkin and Oettinger in my 25+ year league. Oettinger was a shorter hold time, but it's the second best two man goalie tandem I've ever had. Yes, it's a play one, but that's fine.

I did the draft & hold with Walsstedt in a league that folded. I think Wallstedt is a good option, but so is Gustafsson in Minny. The habitually overrated Fleury is there as the #1 but is the lesser goalie. Gustafsson may come cheaper than Wallstedt as he's "blocked" and has Wallstedt coming.

I like Schmid & Askarov, but they have more in front of them right now, and may not come cheap. I see no reason for Nashville to trade Saros this year, unless they are trying to maximize return, and don't think they can afford his next contract, but they likely can, and he's an high end workhorse.

Kochetkov's price went down with the Canes resigning both guys. I like him a lot, and the team.

Dostal should take over from the sub par Gibson, if they are willing to eat cap and pay somebody to take Gibson.

Limiting this to the guys who were 24 or under last season, I do like a few young guys who are known quantities as NHL level players that are likely cheap, and have shown quality at some point. They are:
Gustafsson
Hart - I know he's not technically a future #1, but his value is in the tank
Woll