Evander Kane- Lets hear from the doubters...

[Fighting_Emu]

So there is a pretty well established notion that this season for Kane is a mirage. Id like to hear some explanation as to why. I just dont get it. Ill preface this with a few of my thoughts:

First off- i dont buy the contract year myth. Will it help? Sure- I guess it could. I personally think this stems more from the dislike poeple have of his character than anything else- but even if it did have validity... how much are people thinking its increasing his production. I mean hes pure beastmode this year- even if you say hes excelling by maybe 10% more than he usually would (which would be a huge increase to attribute just to contract incentive)- then hed still be an exceptional asset. Hes on pace for 35 goals and 72 points- deduct this magical cotract incentive (10%- and i think we can agree this is more than fair)- and you have a 30+ goal 65 point player with absolutely phenomenal peripherals. Hes always among the league leaders in sogs and only stands to gain in that department with better deployment (for example this year hes on pace for 350ish. Will he get there? Likely not but a 300 sog season is still HUGE). Hes also a solid contributor in hits and pims year in year out.

I dont buy the contract year argument. I dont think a guy can just decide hes going to put up elite numbers in the best league on the planet. If there is an argument Im certainly not willing to give it more merit than the hypothetical 10% boost I used above.

So youre still left with a fantastic 65 point sog machine who stuffs cats for you. Why is he treated like toxic waste in fantasy circles? Thats a rhetorical question- I know why. Its because hes been drafted high before and not deliverd and poolies get small minded and bitter when a player burns them- especially a guy like Kane who rubs people the wrong way to begin with. As for the injury argument- sure its a factor- but its not explaining the ridiculously vile percieved value this guy has. Youd be hard pressed to get even a decent 50 point player for Kane at this point.

Im just saying- stick to this perspective at your own risk- because hes dominating categories this year. Even a modest setback next year still has him as a borderline elite player and an absolute beast in roto leagues. Id love to hear the arguments from the doubters- besides "I drafted him too high and now Im holding a grudge"- lol!i think its time to re-think who Evander kane actually is. Its funny- every year we'll hate on a guy until the off-season when we go over the stats with a fine tooth comb. By next summer you'll read all these articles about how hes underrated and can win you youre peripherals, blah, blibbity, blah. Hes literally doing that right now- lmfao! And nobody will pay three peanuts for him because of the stigma attached to him. Do yourself a favor and stop holding a grudge. Kane is winning pools almost single handedly this year. A dropoff next year does not mean he turns into a 40 point pumpkin. If he even does have a dropoff you're looking at a very reasonable chance that you still have a 60-65 point stat stuffer.

Bonus points to my friend Lucafen (Lucafriend?)- for pointing out that even last year he was on a more than relevant 50 point pace with his usual peripheral domination.

[CascadeFilly]

Hey, if he keeps this up through the rest of his career, great. Maybe he is breaking out in his 8th pro season. For the most part, all he's lacked is maturity (more vision and better decision making would be nice, as well, but maybe he's shored that up), and for a while, it looked like it could have gone either way. The season is still young, though. He could still miss 30 games.

[ericdaoust]

He's been an elite multi-cat guy for years, you're kind of late to the party here...

Regarding the career year and the supposed improbability of him dropping off at some point, if you have any knowledge of player careers you'll find plenty of examples of big years with major downers coming afterwards. There's way more room for variance than your magical 10%.

[Axeman33]

Hey, if he keeps this up through the rest of his career, great. Maybe he is breaking out in his 8th pro season. For the most part, all he's lacked is maturity (more vision and better decision making would be nice, as well, but maybe he's shored that up), and for a while, it looked like it could have gone either way. The season is still young, though. He could still miss 30 games.

This is a lot of it; the lack of maturity. That and the fact that he's only ever posted one season above 43pts for his career and that was back in 2011/12. He's been a great guy for hits/pims but cannot be trusted/counted on for consistent offensive production due to his injury history. I simply don't trust him and I am not a fan of the guy personally for the way he acts.

And I won't lie, I didn't read the entire OP because it was simply too long and I don't need to read it to know why I am not a fan of EKane's. For those who like him, enjoy the ride. I hope he can keep it up and can stay healthy and maybe, just maybe, finally reward fantasy owners who have stuck with him. I am not one of them.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Last great season from him was 2011-12 when he also just so happened to be playing for a new deal - case closed

[rataylor22]

My rebuttal of your contract year myth. Could a player just decide to be better in a specified year in the best league in the world? Unlikely.

Could a player, knowing it's his contract year, decided to train an extra hour at the gym all offseason, eat better, go out less, drink/party less all offseason. Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better on ice performance? More than likely.

Once said season starts, could same said player show up 20 minutes earlier to the rink, leave half an hour later, spend more time in the workout room, go out less on off days, commit themselves to a dedicated diet and sleep regiment for a full season, knowing how much money said actions could make them? Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better sustained on ice performance and better health? More than likely.

Are all of those simple yet effective details easy to get rid of/ignore once you've signed your long term contract? Yes quite easily. Would that then negatively affect your on-ice performance? More than likely. It's not like the contract year narrative is restricted to Evander Kane, and there's a long list of players magically performing above career average levels in contract years to the point where the evidence seems more than anecdotal.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I've never actually drafted him as far as I can remember. What I don't like about him is that he makes stupid decisions on and off the ice. But I have to admit, I haven't watched many Buffalo games this season. And the ones I watched were early in the season.

At least in the past, he was constantly looking to hit too late and shoot from impossible angles - almost like he played fantasy hockey and had himself on his team. Those things are good for those stats but bad for his NHL team and bad for his offensive production. Those decisions always screamed "bad decision-making" or even "bad hockey IQ" to me, so I've stayed away from him because of that. That is, in addition to the extremely stupid things he's done during his free time, although I'm hoping he's matured enough to stop doing those things.

[Fighting_Emu]

He's been an elite multi-cat guy for years, you're kind of late to the party here...

Regarding the career year and the supposed improbability of him dropping off at some point, if you have any knowledge of player careers you'll find plenty of examples of big years with major downers coming afterwards. There's way more room for variance than your magical 10%.

Dont love your tone here- but Ill respond anyways. I never said he wasnt a multi cat beast- in fact I said he always has been- so your "late to the party" comment is both smarmy and inaccurate. Also nice tact man "any knowledge of player careers"- well said brilliant statement of the obvious.

Im asking specifically- how much do you think the contract year is playing into it? Well Im not asking you specifically because you seem more intent on trying to make me sound like a dummy than actually contributing to the conversation- lol! Sorry i didnt dumb that down for you- but thats the general question. Everyone who is down on him uses the "contract year" argument. What is the expectation of what that is? Im sayin 10%. if you want to deflate my argument properly maybe you can do some "knowledge of player career" research and point to a contract year who had a wild variance in said contract year above 10%? Id love an example or two because I cant see many and if people are expecting him to fall back to a 40-45 point pace (from two years ago)- that would entail nearly a what- 80% prodcution impact from this theoretical contract argument??? Yes I am on the side that doesnt believe it exists- but if you disagree can you at least give a reasonable amount of examples beyond an outlier or two that players are having wild 40% variance in seasons that entail recieving a new contract?? Or you just wanna sh*t on my thread? Ftr Im guessing a) you cant/wont bother and b)you drafted E kane too high in the past- lmfao!

[Fighting_Emu]

My rebuttal of your contract year myth. Could a player just decide to be better in a specified year in the best league in the world? Unlikely.

Could a player, knowing it's his contract year, decided to train an extra hour at the gym all offseason, eat better, go out less, drink/party less all offseason. Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better on ice performance? More than likely.

Once said season starts, could same said player show up 20 minutes earlier to the rink, leave half an hour later, spend more time in the workout room, go out less on off days, commit themselves to a dedicated diet and sleep regiment for a full season, knowing how much money said actions could make them? Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better sustained on ice performance and better health? More than likely.

Are all of those simple yet effective details easy to get rid of/ignore once you've signed your long term contract? Yes quite easily. Would that then negatively affect your on-ice performance? More than likely. It's not like the contract year narrative is restricted to Evander Kane, and there's a long list of players magically performing above career average levels in contract years to the point where the evidence seems more than anecdotal.

Ok fair enough. I still dont buy it myself- but thats a matter of opinion on my part. So the question is- how much impact does it have? I used the magical 10% because yes Im a skeptic and that even felt like a lot of weight to give it. That being said most people are still treating him like a 40 point asset which as i stated in my rebuttal above- that would entail a 80% swing- which seems crazy??!! How much can you reasonably weight that impact. Examples would be nice- but even based on intuition/gut instinct- does anyone really believe hes nearly doubling his status quo production for a contract year??? Or is it more reasonable that even if he is overachieving that its by a much smaller margin than that and we can start to term this is the year hes quite possibly breaking out. I just cant see an 80% swing due to contract- its ridiculous to even type out loud.

[Fighting_Emu]

I've never actually drafted him as far as I can remember. What I don't like about him is that he makes stupid decisions on and off the ice. But I have to admit, I haven't watched many Buffalo games this season. And the ones I watched were early in the season.

At least in the past, he was constantly looking to hit too late and shoot from impossible angles - almost like he played fantasy hockey and had himself on his team. Those things are good for those stats but bad for his NHL team and bad for his offensive production. Those decisions always screamed "bad decision-making" or even "bad hockey IQ" to me, so I've stayed away from him because of that. That is, in addition to the extremely stupid things he's done during his free time, although I'm hoping he's matured enough to stop doing those things.

I will concede I have not seen enough of him especially outside of Winnipeg (where I saw more games). Ive also heard the sentiment about bad angle shots. The only thing I wonder is that if your perception has soured and you dont like the guy to begin with- is it easier to make that kind of asessemnt? I gotta think AO, Burns, Seguin, et all- have taken their fair share of waffle shots- but when youre producing its easier to sweep that under the rug. I dont KNOW that thats the case- but I have to wonder if that plays into it...

[Wonko]

My rebuttal of your contract year myth. Could a player just decide to be better in a specified year in the best league in the world? Unlikely.

Could a player, knowing it's his contract year, decided to train an extra hour at the gym all offseason, eat better, go out less, drink/party less all offseason. Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better on ice performance? More than likely.

Once said season starts, could same said player show up 20 minutes earlier to the rink, leave half an hour later, spend more time in the workout room, go out less on off days, commit themselves to a dedicated diet and sleep regiment for a full season, knowing how much money said actions could make them? Yes quite easily. Would those actions contribute to better sustained on ice performance and better health? More than likely.

Are all of those simple yet effective details easy to get rid of/ignore once you've signed your long term contract? Yes quite easily. Would that then negatively affect your on-ice performance? More than likely. It's not like the contract year narrative is restricted to Evander Kane, and there's a long list of players magically performing above career average levels in contract years to the point where the evidence seems more than anecdotal.

Excellently written. Great points Rat.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I will concede I have not seen enough of him especially outside of Winnipeg (where I saw more games). Ive also heard the sentiment about bad angle shots. The only thing I wonder is that if your perception has soured and you dont like the guy to begin with- is it easier to make that kind of asessemnt? I gotta think AO, Burns, Seguin, et all- have taken their fair share of waffle shots- but when youre producing its easier to sweep that under the rug. I dont KNOW that thats the case- but I have to wonder if that plays into it...

Bad angle shots are fine when there are no better options. Kane usually took those shots even though there were open passing lanes available, and that's not something smart hockey players do. But confidence plays a big part in something like this as well, so when you're not feeling good about your game, you might make those bad decisions because you fear a mistake. I think Kane's confidence about his game was very low for a few years at least, so perhaps that has improved this season.

But also, one thing to notice when looking at his numbers and comparing them to previous seasons - scoring is up this season, so that affects everyone's numbers a little bit. Perhaps on previous seasons, he'd be on pace for 65 points now instead of 74. The difference at this point of the season is just 3 points. Maybe his scoring goes down to 55 points in the future - he's still very valuable in leagues with hits, SOG and PIM.

By the way, his PIM numbers are down this season, so that's probably helping his offensive numbers as well. Hopefully he keeps that up and doesn't take as many stupid penalties as he used to take.

[rataylor22]

Ok fair enough. I still dont buy it myself- but thats a matter of opinion on my part. So the question is- how much impact does it have? I used the magical 10% because yes Im a skeptic and that even felt like a lot of weight to give it. That being said most people are still treating him like a 40 point asset which as i stated in my rebuttal above- that would entail a 80% swing- which seems crazy??!! How much can you reasonably weight that impact. Examples would be nice- but even based on intuition/gut instinct- does anyone really believe hes nearly doubling his status quo production for a contract year??? Or is it more reasonable that even if he is overachieving that its by a much smaller margin than that and we can start to term this is the year hes quite possibly breaking out. I just cant see an 80% swing due to contract- its ridiculous to even type out loud.

Well. Evander Kane is a nice example. In 2011-2012, he scored 57 points in 74 games. That's 0.77 P/g. Every other season he's scored between 0.40 and 0.69 P/g. He scored 0.40 P/g in his rookie season, and he scored 0.69 P/g in the lockout year, so could argue there wasn't time for stats to normalize to career average (I subscribe to this theory, both positively and negatively, for all players stats in the lockout half season). Still, if you take out his "contract year" he's scored 243 points in 421 games, for 0.58 P/g. If you also take out his "rookie year", he's scored 217 points in 355 games, or 0.61 P/g. If you take out his contract year, his rookie year, and the lockout year, he's scored 184 points in 307 games, or 0.60 P/g. I feel very comfortable that his career average shows him to be a 0.6 P/g player. That would suggest his "contract year" boost could reflect as much as a 28% "bump" in his stats. Currently he's producing at a 0.90 P/g clip. A 28% reduction would mean next year he's a 0.65 P/g player, or a 53 point 82 game pace. Of course there's also the chance that he's just a 0.60 P/g player, and that's what you could expect going forward, suggesting his current pace is actually a 50% "contract year bump".

Maybe, maybe, maybe, this 0.90 P/g pace is the "new" Evander Kane. It certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility. It also isn't out of the realm of possibility that all of Evander Kane's potential process improvements I suggested above result in a 25%-50% boost in his stats in a contract year. It certainly isn't outlandish to suggest that 30 games is more of an outlier than the other 526 games of his career. I'd also suggest lets see what he does for the rest of the season, as it wouldn't be totally shocking to see him fall back to his "contract year" pace of 0.77 P/g, or his career average of 0.60 P/g, by the end of the season, and then all of this (this being that he is "for real") would be moot.

As for other outliers, I don't care or have the time to go into as much detail, but Eberle and Draisaitl currently seem to have had career years in contract years, as did Troy Brouwer, Bryan Bickell, Dustin Brown. I dunno, look at ~most~ of the pretty bad UFA contracts handed out, and they tend to happen after a player has come off a career year, and they're bad because they didn't ever replicate said career year.

[Fighting_Emu]

Well. Evander Kane is a nice example. In 2011-2012, he scored 57 points in 74 games. That's 0.77 P/g. Every other season he's scored between 0.40 and 0.69 P/g. He scored 0.40 P/g in his rookie season, and he scored 0.69 P/g in the lockout year, so could argue there wasn't time for stats to normalize to career average (I subscribe to this theory, both positively and negatively, for all players stats in the lockout half season). Still, if you take out his "contract year" he's scored 243 points in 421 games, for 0.58 P/g. If you also take out his "rookie year", he's scored 217 points in 355 games, or 0.61 P/g. If you take out his contract year, his rookie year, and the lockout year, he's scored 184 points in 307 games, or 0.60 P/g. I feel very comfortable that his career average shows him to be a 0.6 P/g player. That would suggest his "contract year" boost could reflect as much as a 28% "bump" in his stats. Currently he's producing at a 0.90 P/g clip. A 28% reduction would mean next year he's a 0.65 P/g player, or a 53 point 82 game pace. Of course there's also the chance that he's just a 0.60 P/g player, and that's what you could expect going forward, suggesting his current pace is actually a 50% "contract year bump".

Maybe, maybe, maybe, this 0.90 P/g pace is the "new" Evander Kane. It certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility. It also isn't out of the realm of possibility that all of Evander Kane's potential process improvements I suggested above result in a 25%-50% boost in his stats in a contract year. It certainly isn't outlandish to suggest that 30 games is more of an outlier than the other 526 games of his career. I'd also suggest lets see what he does for the rest of the season, as it wouldn't be totally shocking to see him fall back to his "contract year" pace of 0.77 P/g, or his career average of 0.60 P/g, by the end of the season, and then all of this (this being that he is "for real") would be moot.

As for other outliers, I don't care or have the time to go into as much detail, but Eberle and Draisaitl currently seem to have had career years in contract years, as did Troy Brouwer, Bryan Bickell, Dustin Brown. I dunno, look at ~most~ of the pretty bad UFA contracts handed out, and they tend to happen after a player has come off a career year, and they're bad because they didn't ever replicate said career year.

Again these are fair points (and thank you by the way for not being condescending in your disagreement- makes the discussion much more enjoyable )- BUT- Im of the opinion that Evander Kane always had another gear to his game. Hes struggled with icetime/usage/deployment- and then when hes recieved those things hes failed to capitalize and/or had to deal with injuries. I personally dont think its a stretch to say that he hasnt followed the development path of most 26 year olds. It would be pretty easy imo to draw out a conclusion whereby hes been a bit of a latebloomer in terms of actual points on the board. This is conjecture on my [part- but worth noting (and I think a lot of people would agree- again my opinion only).

But back to the hard numbers. My whole point was this (and thank you because weve gotten to the heart of the issue now): if he was a 0.6 ppg player (and I dont think hes even given that much credit in most threads/trade negotiations) and hes NOW producing as 0.9 ppg player my contention is that this season might well be an outlier BUT seems to me to be indicative that he has probably reached a "new normal". Now Im NOT saying thats an 0.9 ppg player. Id like to say its reasonable that hes more likely an 0.8 ppg player which fits pretty nicely with my magical 10% that Daoust loves so much- because I just dont see a contract year being a mitigating factor for more of a swing than that. Thats still a 65 point player with ridiculous peripherals. If you wanted to meet in the middle at 0.75- thats still a 60 point player.

i disagree that hes a 50 point player. I think he always had the potential for more and now were seeing it. Thats anecdotal based on my impression of what Ive seen and read about him. Empirically I think its absolutely nuts that hes basically doubling his production because its a contract year. From a statitistical standpoint I can definitely see rgression to the tune of 10-15% (my opinion)- not 80%. I will even admit I could be wrong (and hey- a 50 point cat stuffer has more than enough value in my leagues)- but the numbers dont add up to me. I dont think players can (or are even capable of) doubling their production to get a new contract.

My supposition is that this season IS an outlier towards over achieving BUT that its not to the tune of 80% of his production. I think its very reasonable to suggest that when the dust settles he'll be much closer to a 60+ point threat than a 50+ point one based on his pace this year(and thats outside of the dominance he'll net you this year). My WHOLE point wasnt to say he wont regress- it was to ask how much regression are people are expecting? Because to me I think its being overstated. I think he will have a market correction (not just based on contract but a lot of factors play into his over achieving this much)- just not to the degree that is being bandied about. I DONT believe hes turning into a pumpkin at midnight (when he signs the dotted line) and I DO believe its easier to buy into that narrative based on his history with poolies and his public persona in general.



Now he'll go and get injured fighting a hooker- manage a hefty contract anyways and then promptly party his way out of the league- lol

[Wonko]

Now he'll go and get injured fighting a hooker

So good. lol.