Andersen vs. Caps

[Axeman33]

Started Anderson. Shutout caps. BAM!

LOL!

Good call. I would have sat him myself and beat my head against the wall this morning but it goes to show anything is possible on any given night.

[Pengwin7]

I hate this thread.
Effin Brossoit. What a tease.

[tweetdrivr]

I hate this thread.
Effin Brossoit. What a tease.

Tough one for sure. You gave some good advice. Back-ups are back-ups for a reason...

[Pengwin7]

Tough one for sure. You gave some good advice. Back-ups are back-ups for a reason...

Thanks.
Skaters, I get.
Goalie, I don't... I try, but I don't.

[tweetdrivr]

Thanks.
Skaters, I get.
Goalie, I don't... I try, but I don't.

Your post on how much Niskanen being out hurts the Caps is exactly the sort of thing to look at. But evaluating goalies is sort of like evaluating skaters. Skaters have things like career norm shooting % or PDO...things that can be looked at to correct back to norms. Goalies have career norms too...it's a little tougher with guys like Darling or Vasilevsky who have never been starters, but you generally know what you should get with a goalie over the long haul. There is more volatility with goalies (see terrible D/Carey Price right now) but guys with an established record as starters in the league should give you expected results over the season. Like Smith in Calgary. He is ageing a bit but has been an above average guy at stopping pucks (sv%) over his career. He's doing fine in Calgary as I would expect. There are always going to outliers and perhaps the predictability is a little more mercurial at the goalie position, but if you draft known NHL starters and play them on a consistent basis you should get close to expected results from the rate stats.

[Pengwin7]

^True. But the converse argument can also be made.
I've played in enough leagues (and run a "daily goalie pick" contest) and tracked enough stats to have quantifiable justification that:
i) starting your best goalie is NOT a better strategy than
ii) starting your best match-up.

There are people that will show up in a "Who to start thread?" and just type the better goalie's name.
I've even seen some veteran forum members that USED to do that, and now lean towards the better match-up.
Usually, the better goalie is the smarter choice... but give me Brian Elliott (PHI) against the Coyotes... over, say, Matt Murray (PIT) vs. a healthy Washington team.



BTW - I'll try to find the fun link on the contest I used to host.
It was based on scoring for most leagues where GAA=-1, SV=0.1, W=2.
[ah, found it. Here it is/was. A forum member named jcairns is among the best I've seen at value-drafting & playing match-up based goalies. He's finished top two in DobberPRO leagues each of last few seasons, by value-late-drafting goalies. I aspire to be of his late-drafting-goalie prowess!!!]

[Stinkfist]

Last year I was picking starts for my goalies (Andersen, Vasi, Gibson and Helle) Always trying to go with the best matchups. by a 1/4 of the season in i was so far in the hole with gaa and sv%
The sad think is that If I just left Andersen, Gibson and Vasi in all year (we can play 3 goalies, just have min/max targets) I would have been much better off and would have finished in the money.

I have learned my lesson. Put your best goalies in and leave them. Over time the good ones will rise to the top. Trying to guess based on matchups is a fools game.