Re: What is your strategy when it comes to "runs"
Agreed that this is the key to runs. With Forwards and D-men there are essentially an infinite (more than will be picked at least) number of players so at anytime you can pick one. The key to tiers is that they let you look at similarly ranked players, if a run occurs and there is a player left in the tier grab him but if the tier runs out you don't just grab the next player available.
Goalies are different because there are only 31 (still weird to type 31!) starters, and only 25-26 undisputed starters. So there are less than 2 true starters per team. With your setup I think you have 2 options: top-6 goalie and low level goalie, in this case the low level goalie only really covers against a catastrophic injury, or grab 2 guys ranked 7-15 guys and hope one excels. Which strategy you employ will likely come down to your draft position.
In this league I think an ideal strategy would be to calculate the replacement value (I realize you can't make moves so first guy not picked) value and make most picks against that value while considering tiers as well.
i.e. 11 F x 16 = 176 Forwards, 2 x 16 = 32 D 1 x 16 = 16 G picked.
I went with the number that scores and not the number selected because the scoring is what’s important, the extra depth of non-scoring players is more insurance in my mind.
The 176th Forward had 33P, the 32nd Dman had 38 P, the 16th Goalie had 57P (Didn’t do all the Math, Brian Elliott was 16th in W). So, if you’re the last guy to pick at this position that is what you can anticipate getting.
Top Point getter in 2017: F-100, G-99, D-76.
Each round I’d compare the best available pick per position vs the waiver wire number and take the highest spread, I would be willing to forgo a few points if it meant getting the last or 2nd last of a tier before a dramatic fall-off.
So If I get the 1st overall Pick I’m taking McDavid (projecting another 100 point season) because he bests the waiver wire (33P) by 67P, top goalies beat by about 42, Burns (or top-D of your choice) by 44points.
Because you choose so many forwards I’d continue to hammer forwards early unless I can get one of the 3 (in my view) truly elite D-men (Karlsson, Burns, Hedman). Also I’d keep an eye on the top-16 goalies and make absolutely certain I had one clear cut starter, and then try and get another top-24 clear cut starter to cover injuries.
In conclusion I wouldn’t be looking to take a goalie first unless a top-6 (I like your 6) goalie fell to me and their wasn’t an 80 point player left. Regarding D unless a top-3 guy fell to me I’d probably wait and take 3 guys you have projected for 45+ points, you can probably steal them late. I don’t see if necessary to be a part of a D-man run when there is a large group from 45-38 points, Frankly I’d rely upon (your) ability to grab the right one of the group.
12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
NO IR
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Originally Posted by hockeyrobot
