Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League
This was the first Dobber draft I had where I didn't experience technical issues with the Yahoo draft page, so that was great. It also means I have no excuse for not having the team I wanted. There were only two occasions where I ended up drafting someone I didn't want to, and that was because of the 60 sec clock. Otherwise, I did my homework for this draft. I used Dobber's projections and plugged them into FHG to get rankings specific to our settings. Then I 'coded' high performances in each category in red (high performance: i.e., 25+ goals, 40+ assists, +10 or higher +/-, and so on) and blue (low performance: i.e., 10 or fewer goals, 20 or fewer assists, -10 or worse +/-, and so on). When I made my picks, I drafted players with the most categories highlighted in red (or not highlighted at all) and avoided as much as possible those players who had multiple categories highlighted in blue. This is the strategy that won me the Pro league last year. I also planned to draft at least 3 quality starters, for insurance and for trade fodder, and to load up on multi-cat guys. Last year, the deals I made on my 3rd and 4th goalie selections (Anderson and Greiss) put me over the top for the win.
I was in the 5th slot, so I didn't know who exactly to take if Crosby or OV or Burns weren't available. I decided on Kucherov, who is a solid producer in all categories but HIT and likely to be top 5 in points overall this year. I gave Karlsson a good hard look, and also thought about a goalie, but Kucherov's goal totals prevailed -- I didn't think I'd get someone with 40-goal/80-90 point potential in the next round.
In the 2nd round, I was happy to see that Dubnyk (the 5th ranked goalie on my list, 10th overall) was still available. I was looking hard at another goalie when the third round came to me, but with Schenn still on the board (ranked 11th overall on my list), I took him and hoped for the best on the goalie front. His dual eligibility is also attractive: I start thinking about loading up on Cs who are winger eligible so I could draft my actual centres later in the draft. A small run on goalies started 5~ picks before me in round 4, but I still managed to snag Bishop, who my FHG list had ranked ahead of Jones, Gibson, and Rinne, who were all picked before I took Bishop. A real run on goalies happened right after this, so I was relieved I didn't wait any longer.
At this stage, I'm happy that I have two quality starters, and I have a lot of everything in my first two skater picks. But by now many of the best D have gone off the board, so I'm anxious to start filling that spot. Ristolanen is sniped right in front of me, so I waffle between Weber and Doughty, but ultimately take Doughty. At this stage, some people start taking players that are on page 2 and 3 of my 6-page FHG list; I remain on page one (top 50 skaters) for some rounds to come.
So, while the likes of Nylander and Marner and Bergeron are selected in front of me, for my 6th selection, I take Arvidsson, ranked 40th overall. I follow that pick up with Kreider (7th) and Parayko (8th), and I'm still working from page one of my list. At this stage, I feel like I have a lot of strong mult-cat producers, and that frees me up to make some selections with more of an eye on assists and PPP as well as goalies.
Now finally on p.2 of my list, I select Seth Jones for my 9th pick. I had my eye on Craig Anderson, but he was sniped just a few picks in front of me: I move Fleury up my queue just in case. Darling, Lehner, and Smith all go in the next few picks, but I decide on Trocheck for my 10th pick, another strong multi-cat performer who I had at 67 on my list. As hoped, Fleury remains available to me for my 11th pick, so I take him. My plan is to spot start him against weaker teams, and then ride Bishop and Dubnyk for their 55-60 starts a piece. I might even be able to trade him later in the year if he gives lots of SVs, as expected, because I really only need 20-30 games out of him.
At this stage, I have 2 guys who can play C, 3 who can play LW, 2 who can play RW, 3 D, and 3 goalies. So, I have to start thinking a bit more carefully about drafting at specific positions. This will screw me up with one pick later on.
I take Jenner with pick #12, who also has C/LW eligibility, because I've now decided that these multi-cat guys are going to be an area of strength for my team: I'll be able to move 1-2 of them for more offence if it turns out I need it. I've got Lindholm in my sights for my next pick, because I feel like I have to take another RW or D here, but he goes just in front of me, so I settle with Zuccarello for pick #13. I'm OK with his low SOG/HIT total because I've shored that up already, whereas his 40~ assists, 20~ PPP, and good +/- are exactly what I need at this stage.
One advantage of my early "centre" selections was that two of them were eligible to play wing, so there are a lot of decent Cs still available for very cheap. I take E. Staal with pick #14 and start to slot my other "Cs" as wingers on my own roster sheet in front of me (ignoring the Yahoo roster on the draft page). With Niskanen and Martinez selected in the previous round, I take Skjei with pick #15. For pick #16, I take Neal, who is slotted at 133 on my list but I have been passing over in multiple rounds because of the +/- risk. At this stage, however, I have a lot of guys who are likely going to be really strong +/- performers, so I decide I can absorb the hit.
My next pick, #17, is a total snafu: I've got Montour selected and am ready to hit the 'draft' button, but my monitor blacks out for 20~ seconds. When the screen returns, I have drafted Vlasic, who was in my queue -- which I use to keep an eye on players, and not to actually draft. Ah well. I take Koivu with pick #18: like Zuccarello, I'm OK with the low SOG/HIT he offers in return for the 40~ assists, 20~ PPP, and good +/- he should also bring in.
With picks #19 and #20, I take Horvat and Murphy. I can easily absorb Horvat's +/- risk at this stage, esp. in return for 50~ points and 20~ PPP, whereas with Murphy, I get something of a Gudas-light with more potential upside and a better +/- projection because he's now in CHI. For those keeping score, I'm selecting players from the 3rd page of my FHG list, meaning that while we're 240 picks in, I'm still selected skaters ranked in the 140-160 range on my list.
My next pick, #21, is when my queue betrays me. I had Perron in there forever, but kept passing on him because I don't like to have many +/- risks on my roster. At this stage, I'm noticing that I really only have 3 guys who can play right wing and I really need to fix that. With the clock counting down, I'm scrambling and I have find someone I want (I've forgotten who now!), but I run out of time and I end up with Perron because of my queue. Ah well: at least he's RW eligible. I console myself with the certainty that I have a lot of guys who should be strong +/- performers who can balance this pick out.
At this stage, I'm having an impossible time keeping track of who's still available or not. For my final 4 picks, nothing unexpected happens, however. I take Slavin, Perrault, Condon, and Williams (because I need a 5th RW player). Perrault served me very well last year, and Condon is a sneaky pick: OTT this year has more back-to-back games then just about any team in the league, so I figure he will get 25+ starts. As a Sens fan, I also know that Anderson is due for some missed time.
In the end, this is my team:
C: Schenn (LW), Trocheck, E. Staal, Koivu, Horvat
LW: Arvidsson (RW), Kreider, Neal (RW), Jenner (C), Perrault (C)
RW: Kucherov, Zuccarello, Perron (LW), Williams
D: Doughty, Parayko, Jones, Skjei, Vlasic, Murphy, Slavin
G: Dubnyk, Bishop, Fleury, Condon
For skaters, I think my team will be very competitive in the G, +/-, HIT, and SOG categories, decent to fair for assists, and probably weak in PPP. For goalies, I think I'll be competitive for Ws and SVs, and the x-factor will be whether or not Dubnyk and Bishop's GAA average can balance out any damage Fleury or Condon might do on that front. Overall, I think it's a pretty solid team.
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LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.
ROSTER:
C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)
* = 2023 keepers