Blues defence next year - who get the PP?

[forsbergfan]

after shattenkirk got traded, pietrangelo got the PP time. a lot of people seem to view it as a forgone conclusion that parayko will wind up with the top PP QB job, but do you all agree with that? it's not like pietrangelo did anything to lose the job - if anything, the blues were better after shatty was traded (although it was mainly because of the coaching change which made jake allen improve).
the blues also have 3 young offensive dmen coming up in the near future - schmaltz, dunn and walman, I doubt either one gets #1 PP time right away, but both short and long term, what do you all see happening in this situation? how many points should we be expecting from pietrangelo and parayko next year and for the next few seasons?

[agentzero]

Pietrangelo should continue in the 45+ range. Parayko is an offensive star. I don't ever know about 50, but 40+ is my expectation for him. Those 2 will own the PP for the next 3 years easy. Anything can happen but I don't expect any of those 3 prospects to earn any big PP time or put up any numbers absent a long term injury, and even then. I say it's 3 years before either prospect gives you more than 30 points, or even 30.

[Axeman33]

I think Mike Yeo likes Pietrangelo a lot and will use him more than Parayko on the PP.

[Big Baby]

https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

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https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

[VintageVibe]

https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

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https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

This is why I always argue with my buddies who throw these sort of advanced stats into a discussion... Not to discredit Parayko (he's awesome) but... does that chart illustrate the fact that AP is always on against the other teams #1 line or not? i.e. quality of competition? Does it include the entire season (i.e. the period of time before AP's PP time doubled and he was strictly getting heavy, defensive minutes?) or just the sample of GP once Shattenkirk was gone (if so, I'm sure it would be a lot different)? Just wondering... charts like that can often be misleading.

Pretty sure AP finished the year with 18 points in 18 GP (or something like that) once Shattenkirk was traded. I'd say the PP QB role is his to lose moving forward.

[Axeman33]

https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

- - - Updated - - -

https://twitter.com/travisyost/statu...74939599388672

Over the course of the year, talent will win out.

You are assuming that Mike Yeo worries about advanced stats as well.

[Pengwin7]

Personally, I like AP > Parayko.
I think we (as fantasy hockey buffs) are always too anxious to find the next big thing and always extrapolate upwards for young players.
Parayko, IMO, has a better look to him... he's "sexier" - the term I use. People watch him - they fall for him and his Ivan Drago like looks.
AP is boring, vanilla... doesn't get enough love - but he's got top-level hockey smarts. His decision-making is incredible.
It takes a long, long time to see these things but I think coaches recognize them very well.
Year-after-year certain "boring" players (Pavelski, for example) get no love but continue to put up good numbers based on their high-level hockey smarts.
AP is one of these guys.

I think STL will try both AP & Parayko on PP1... but when a team already has a bonafide superstar triggerman (Tank), I think they more inclined to go with the steadier point man (AP).
A similar thing happened with WAS, IMO. They could cut ties with Mike Green on PP1 because John Carlson was even steadier puck-cycler.
Carlson is another sort of "boring" player - of course, he has that Parayko-like rugged jaw and the ol' USA Jr hype moment that keeps him more of a fantasy-fave.

Short summary:
I like AP for 50pts and bulk on PP1.
I do like Parayko for 40-42pts with some PP1 and bulk of PP2.

[Mr. Guru]

Joel Edmundson

[Big Baby]

You are assuming that Mike Yeo worries about advanced stats as well.

The advanced stats are not intended to influence the coach or to support an argument. I just put it there to show that Parayko has better offensive numbers than AP. Obviously Yeo likes AP better right now, but in a lot of cases, the better player wins out.

It's going to be tough for Parayko to take the spot from AP, but with his ability to create more offense than AP, the blues might have to make a change if the PP struggles.

[MasterByte]

I think Mike Yeo likes Pietrangelo a lot and will use him more than Parayko on the PP.

I agree with this one. Similar to a Cam Fowler, Randy Carlyle situation at the start of the 2016 season.

[chuckcouples]

The advanced stats are not intended to influence the coach or to support an argument. I just put it there to show that Parayko has better offensive numbers than AP.

Wait, what? Parayko has better offensive numbers than Pietrangelo? Let's review the numbers over the past 2 seasons:

Goals - AP 21, CP 13
Assists - AP 85, CP 68
PPG - AP 7, CP 7
PPA - AP 17, CP 10
Shots - AP 363, CP 353
Games Played - AP 153, CP 160

Pretty sure Pietrangelo has better offensive numbers than Parayko.

[SergeP]

Wait, what? Parayko has better offensive numbers than Pietrangelo? Let's review the numbers over the past 2 seasons:

Goals - AP 21, CP 13
Assists - AP 85, CP 68
PPG - AP 7, CP 7
PPA - AP 17, CP 10
Shots - AP 363, CP 353
Games Played - AP 153, CP 160

Pretty sure Pietrangelo has better offensive numbers than Parayko.

He makes a strong case...

[Big Baby]

Wait, what? Parayko has better offensive numbers than Pietrangelo? Let's review the numbers over the past 2 seasons:

Goals - AP 21, CP 13
Assists - AP 85, CP 68
PPG - AP 7, CP 7
PPA - AP 17, CP 10
Shots - AP 363, CP 353
Games Played - AP 153, CP 160

Pretty sure Pietrangelo has better offensive numbers than Parayko.

Of course AP is going to have better counting stats than Parayko when you consider the deployment, although he isn't out producing by that large of an amount.

But Parayko has the better rate stats. P/60. I use rate stats to predict future success, as do many others. If Parayko was getting the minutes and deployment that AP got last year, he would have out produced him.

Two seasons ago D Pastrnak had a top ten P/60 at 5v5 but only produced 26 points in 51 games. However he was only averaging 12-13 minutes/game. But per hour he was out producing, krejci, Bergeron and even Marchand. This season his ice time increased to 18-19 minutes/game, his rate stats didn't change all that much but his ice time increased. Hence the breakout campaign.

I'm not saying that rate stats tell the whole story but they are a big part of it. And Parayko has great /60 stats. Better than AP's. So if he is give more ice time and PP time, which he should be considering the departure of shattenkirk, and his natural development, he will begin to produce more.

[LuigiC173]

Piet, one of the most under appreciated in the game.

[Mr. Guru]

AP started the year off really slow if I recall correctly.