Would you guys hedge this bet TONIGHT?

[notch4077]

Back on April 12th before the playoffs started I picked Ottawa to win the East at +1200.

Now here we are one win away from the Ottawa doing just that and against the 3 teams I was hoping they would face when I placed the bet.

Here is my issue. Nobody knows who will win. Do I think Ottawa will tonight? I can't say that with any certainty either. With Pittsburgh being the favoured team tonight at -195, is it even worth it for me to put up $780 to try and win $400 if Pittsburgh wins ($300 actually as I lose my original $100 on my Sens bet). If I do this and the Sens do indeed win, my payout would drop from $1200 to $420.

Do I hedge my bet and guarantee myself $300 (Pens win) or $420 (Sens win) or do I let my bet ride and hope my Sens do what I thought they could and see if I can win $1200?

I don't want to know who you guys think will win tonight, I want to know if you guys are gamblers or would take the guaranteed money?

[Pengwin7]

Depends what kind of person you are.
If you can't handle disappointment well, hedge your bet and take some sure money by betting Pittsburgh.
If you love the super high highs... just ride it out... be a fan... live on the edge.

I'd love to say I'm the latter... but I'm definitely the former.
You be you.

[rataylor22]

If the point of gambling for you is to ride high and back your team, then ride high and don't hedge.

If the point is to finish with net positive money, then obviously hedge.

Option C is bet enough to win $100 if the Penguins win, and then you both maximize profit on a Sens win, and break even on your bet with a Pens win IE net positive money.

[rataylor22]

That would be what, betting $195 to win $100 right? I dunno how it works, I don't gamble lol. But then you'd still break even at worst or win $1000 at best. This seems like the optimal play from both a money and fan perspective.

[hockeyrobot]

Depends what kind of person you are.
If you can't handle disappointment well, hedge your bet and take some sure money by betting Pittsburgh.
If you love the super high highs... just ride it out... be a fan... live on the edge.

I'd love to say I'm the latter... but I'm definitely the former.
You be you.

Agree with this. My stance would be to put some kind of wager down on the Penguins though....but I probably wouldn't go as high $700+ (I rarely bet over $10 lol). My angle would be put enough down on Pittsburgh to make you happy in the end. That way you are guaranteed something. But again....you be you.

Also next time use bet365 They have a cash out system and while sometimes it is really tempting, a lot of times it ends up being the right call.


For instance...I had bet on a Nash/Pitt Cup, picked Nash in a pool and also bet on them preseason to win the Cup. Prior to game 6 bet365 basically offered me a cash out of the Nash/Pitt bet at 65% of the potential total. I took it because if Nashville ended up losing 6/7 I'd get nothing.

[audiopile]

I don't often agree with rataylor (never) but in this case I like the strategy. Bet on Pens to win back your original wager.

[Sulla]

Let it ride (easy to say as not my money lol) but I'd argue but back when you placed it you wrote the money off anyway. Now that it is this tight I wouldn't blame you for hedging but for me defeats the purpose of the bet (and is the reason why the bookmaker always wins)

[PenguinHunter]

Depends what kind of person you are.
If you can't handle disappointment well, hedge your bet and take some sure money by betting Pittsburgh.
If you love the super high highs... just ride it out... be a fan... live on the edge.

I'd love to say I'm the latter... but I'm definitely the former.
You be you.

Everything you need to know is in this post!

Would you be super happy with a 3X of a 4.2X return on your money with guaranteed income - kinda like a GIC but a better return.

OR are you more risky in your investments and would love to hit that 12X return on your money in just under two months time - This is like investing the TSX risk to come away with nothing or big gain.

- - - Updated - - -

That would be what, betting $195 to win $100 right? I dunno how it works, I don't gamble lol. But then you'd still break even at worst or win $1000 at best. This seems like the optimal play from both a money and fan perspective.

This is great strategy!

[rataylor22]

Let it ride (easy to say as not my money lol) but I'd argue but back when you placed it you wrote the money off anyway. Now that it is this tight I wouldn't blame you for hedging but for me defeats the purpose of the bet (and is the reason why the bookmaker always wins)

Not really, the whole point of hedging like this is guaranteeing that the bookmaker loses. Just depends how much they lose.

[glorybe23]

Ride the high. You made a crazy bet to begin with, so why not enjoy it?

I wouldnt do the hedge, personally it would spoil the Sens win, if they win, knowing I never trusted my gut and lost out on the full amount of the cash. I've been on both ends of this and the best night is always going for it all.

Tincup that shit!

[Kofax]

I would have hedged it at the beginning of the series (like I suggested back then) so you would have had to bet less for a decent payout. Then if the Sens still pulled through, you place a similar bet on Nashville, and you still end up getting a big return if the Sens win, but a decent return if Pitt or Nashville win.

Given it's now the last game, and PIT is a heavy favourite, I would likely follow rataylor's advice and bet enough to get your money back, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you just let it ride at this point.

No matter if you hedge tonight or not, if they do manage to win, I would definitely be hedging with a bet on NSH for a decent amount.

EDIT:
Just realized it was to win the East. I might just let it ride tonight given the Pens are too heavily favoured to win much back. Would have hedged at the beginning of the series.

[Moses]

If you bet $195 and Pittsburgh wins you make $100, correct?

You originally bet $100 on Ottawa to win $1200, correct?

If the two statements above are true then....

A.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you spent $295 to make $1200 (up $905)
B.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you spent $295 to make $295 (even)
C.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you don't win anything (down $100)
D.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you win your original bet (up $1100 -- or is it $1200, I'm not sure, anyways...)


Looks to me that if you do option B you come away at minimum even and at best up $905. You are insuring your real money at 3:1 with house money. (I think - but I am the furthest thing from a pro sports gambler)

[chuckcouples]

Let it ride.

The $100 you bet on the Senators is a sunk cost and has been out of your mind since you made the bet. If the Senators win, you get some money and are very happy. If they don't win, you won't notice a difference since you haven't had that money for 6 weeks.

If you make the big bet on the Pens and they lose, you are going to be feeling terrible for wasting $780. It would probably feel even worse than if the Sens had just lost out in the first round.

To put it another way. Betting on the Penguins to win tonight should have nothing to do with your Senators bet. If you think the Pens are going to win tonight and you are willing to put up $780 on that to win $400, then make that bet. If you are not confident that the Pens will win tonight, then don't bet $780 on it.

[rataylor22]

If you bet $195 and Pittsburgh wins you make $100, correct?

You originally bet $100 on Ottawa to win $1200, correct?

If the two statements above are true then....

A.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you spent $295 to make $1200 (up $905)
B.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you spent $295 to make $295 (even)
C.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you don't win anything (down $100)
D.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you win your original bet (up $1100 -- or is it $1200, I'm not sure, anyways...)


Looks to me that if you do option B you come away at minimum even and at best up $905. You are insuring your real money at 3:1 with house money. (I think - but I am the furthest thing from a pro sports gambler)

I still think this is the optimal nuts play.

[Moses]

^^ That is what you were saying above isn't it. Same thing, yes?