Atlantic Division Semi Final: (2) Ottawa Senators vs (3) Boston Bruins

[The Iron Sheik]

I already gave goalie stats (if you want to cling to Anderson's 20+ playoff sample vs 500+ overall, you go right ahead. It just further proves your delusion).

Here's some shooting percentages for key skaters, this year vs. career.
Karlsson (7.8 vs 7.1), Turris (14.6 vs 10.9), Stone (16.4 vs 15.6), and Hoffman (11.6 vs 11.6)
Yes, Brassard (7.2 vs 10.9) was below, but it speaks volumes that you single him out and ignore all the others.

Nice try.

Pageau was below too, but if you're calling him a key guy, well...

wow, you're basically clinging to nothing with this proof. Congrats, you found ONE player in Turris who slightly overachieved goal scoring wise by scoring four more goals or so than he normally would (not to mention his Phoenix numbers skew the stats). Speaks volumes that nobody else you listed actually overachieved goal scoring wise (if you think 1 percent means a lot, then I don't know what to tell you).

There is no argument to be made here. The Sens did not overachieve at forward or defense. Period. Maybe you're thinking of Toronto? Anyone who watched the Sens play every game knows the players did not overachieve.

[lucafen4]

I hate both teams... but I am most excited for this series as we get round 2 of Burrows - Marchand. never ever thought this would happen... Guaranteed Burrows is super jacked to mash his face.

[Kofax]

You're the one who has to show backup. Burden of proof is on you. You provided no backup to show how "The Sens overachieved at every position". You posted the goaltending stats. Fine, fair enough. Now show me how the Sens overachieved at forward and defense. There is nobody else here who has provided evidence of Sens players overachieving, because they can't provide that evidence. It doesn't exist. In fact, you'll find most Sens players had unlucky offensive seasons. Like I said, go ahead and pick the Bruins but don't give rationale that the Sens overachieved just because they changed their structure and played well. If they were any luckier this year offensively, they'd be facing the Ranegrs right now.

You are right that they did not overachieve, that stats indicate that they came out right where they should have, which isn't encouraging for their future playoff performance.

They have an above average save percentage, which indicates that goaltending has been a strong point, even though they still finished with a negative goal differential of -4 (as noted). The next closest playoff team is the Toronto Maple Leafs at +16. Not a good sign. (Boston is +23).

They have a below average Powerplay at ~16.9% (vs ~19.1% league avg) and a below average Penalty Kill at 79.8% (80.9 % for league avg), again not a good sign for a playoff team. (Boston is 21.7% and 85.7% respectively).

Their Corsi For and Fenwick For at 5 on 5 are also on the low end, 22nd in each at (48.5% and 48.8% respectively), only the Rangers are worse among playoff teams. (Boston is ranked 2 and 1 in these metrics).

Now on their own, I feel like any of these things can be overcome, but when you combine all of these factors, I think it is fair to say that Ottawa will have a tough time advancing in the playoffs. Combine that with the injuries they've sustained leading into the playoffs, and I don't think it's a stretch for anyone to favour the Bruins here.

[The Iron Sheik]

lol, ahhhh, the infamous "anyone who's watched" argument.
Well, sir, I must stand down. You've outdone yourself. Clearly, they are Stanley Cup Contenders based solely on your eyeballs, and nothing quantitative whatsoever.

No, they are not. I think they can win two rounds. All I'm proclaiming here. But the way you are analyzing the team is wrong. They did not have players overachieve this season.

[The Iron Sheik]

You are right that they did not overachieve, that stats indicate that they came out right where they should have, which isn't encouraging for their future playoff performance.

They have an above average save percentage, which indicates that goaltending has been a strong point, even though they still finished with a negative goal differential of -4 (as noted). The next closest playoff team is the Toronto Maple Leafs at +16. Not a good sign. (Boston is +23).

They have a below average Powerplay at ~16.9% (vs ~19.1% league avg) and a below average Penalty Kill at 79.8% (80.9 % for league avg), again not a good sign for a playoff team. (Boston is 21.7% and 85.7% respectively).

Their Corsi For and Fenwick For at 5 on 5 are also on the low end, 22nd in each at (48.5% and 48.8% respectively), only the Rangers are worse among playoff teams. (Boston is ranked 2 and 1 in these metrics).

Now on their own, I feel like any of these things can be overcome, but when you combine all of these factors, I think it is fair to say that Ottawa will have a tough time advancing in the playoffs. Combine that with the injuries they've sustained leading into the playoffs, and I don't think it's a stretch for anyone to favour the Bruins here.

Boston has more key injuries than Ottawa right now. Boston hasn't beaten Ottawa since 2015. Boston had to fire their coach. Sens goal differential is -2, caused from yesterday's game. Powerplay isn't as important in playoffs. Sens are the better 5 on 5 team IMO, and have given up one 5 on 5 goal to the Bruins this year.

This is just a case where stats like that don't tell the story IMO. Ottawa has controlled Boston for a while now and knows how to play them perfectly. They also have a healthy lineup for the first time all year and got back a huge piece in MacArthur who looks great. The added depth will be huge for the playoffs. I really don't see the Sens losing the first two rounds.

[EdmontonCrunch]

Sens banged up. Bruins have some younger players yes, but they had to face adversity just to work their way into the 3 seed. I like them in 6, I just don't see Ottawa getting it done and the Ottawa's home ice isn't particularly formidable this time of year either

[The Iron Sheik]

Careful, you're trying to give him evidence here, and I applaud you for it, but emotional types do NOT react well to logical things... like evidence.

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Except that they did. And I provided several examples.

No, no you didn't. You think you did, and you think they were relevant, which they weren't. Your goaltending evidence was good. The others were not. You don't proclaim a team overachieved at forward because one player had a relevant increase in shooting percentage. The rest of the players you showed had no statistically significant increase in shooting percentage.

You were and are still wrong that they "overachieved at every position". Again, if they did, the Sens would have scored way more goals than they did. When you go from a Top 9 offensive team to bottom third, you underachieved, or overachieved the previous year. In no way shape or form can you say they overachieved this year offensively.

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Sens banged up. Bruins have some younger players yes, but they had to face adversity just to work their way into the 3 seed. I like them in 6, I just don't see Ottawa getting it done and the Ottawa's home ice isn't particularly formidable this time of year either

Yeah it is, it will be packed and will be a sea of red. The arena gets loud come playoff time.

[EdmontonCrunch]

I'm sure Boston is real scared to go into Ottawa and face a team that can't even sell out in the regular season. http://www.espn.com/nhl/attendance

Also Ottawa's has a "guy" in EK who is obviously a great player but not much else that scares me personally. We will see in about 2 weeks time who's right.

[hockeyrobot]

Lol. Only a matter of time.

[lucafen4]

I feel like the interest in this series is a lot like the actual attendance to Sens games... lacking. The only worth while story line is Burrows finger. I'm done with this thread. Neither team has a shot a the Cup Final. Too many holes on both teams.

[The Iron Sheik]

I'm sure Boston is real scared to go into Ottawa and face a team that can't even sell out in the regular season. http://www.espn.com/nhl/attendance

Also Ottawa's has a "guy" in EK who is obviously a great player but not much else that scares me personally. We will see in about 2 weeks time who's right.

What the hell would you know about our arena in the playoffs all the way from Edmonton? Not once did I say Boston would be SCARED to play here, but home ice is still an advantage especially for coaching.

[EdmontonCrunch]

You're sharp retort tells everyone all they need to know unfortunately. Best of luck to your team

[The Iron Sheik]

You're sharp retort tells everyone all they need to know unfortunately. Best of luck to your team

What? You're the one who was being a dick.

[L2TG]

Sens in 7.

No Krug hurts the Beees. Aside from that the Sens will suffocate the shit out of the Bruins and grind out the series win.

[horrorfan]

To everyone,

Debate is good, but no personal attacks please.