Team in Transition: A Post Mortem

[Fighting_Emu]

So after building a dynasty and enjoying the subequent glory that accompanies train wrecking your opponents consistently year in, year out- 3 titles in 5 years, longest week to week winning streak in a 12 year old league- the sheen was starting to come off my illustrious Fighting Emu franchise. My aging roster sruggled in the standings despite remaining relatively healthy and suffered what felt like an almost predictable first round exit when the playoffs came around. Even then I had made some questionable trades in my tragic quest to remain in contention (Draisaitl AND Palat for Sharp??? Ugh...) and was now looking at a talented but aging core- surrounded by low risk, solid, albeit mostly middling talent.

F- Malkin, Kopitar, Parise, Zetts, Dubinsky, Sharp, Brass, Ziba, Hornqvist
D- Buff, Suter
G- Crawford

Going into the draft I was still on the fence about a full scale re-build. I kind of waffled a bit and decided to take take players young enough to have upside but established enough that i could bank on some proven production. In the end I held off really swinging for the fences so that I could test the water and see if my team was competetive in the early part of the season (it wasnt but we'll get to that later : P ). I stuck to my gameplan of building from the net out and trying to find fringe forwards to fill out the bottom of my roster.

Ended up with:

Hellebyuck, Trouba, H Lindholm, Lee, Bonino, Gaborik

Hellboy was a solid enough pick with my first but had I committed to a full scale rebuild i would have gambled harder on my D picks (and won). Im really tentative with first year d-men because their development trends can be very hard to predict. I am not overly disappointed with Trouba (he really has come in strong in a quiet way)- but had Provorov AND Werenski in the Q (no Joke) and decided I could wait to add one because I needed to add that PROVEN element in my third d-man slot first. Both guys went between Trouba and my next pick. Bonino and Gaborik were both sterling examples about how I was keeping one foot out of the re-build door.

The early part of the season was quietly bad. I was scratching my head trying to discern the slow starts from the cases of full on regression. In a weird plot twist I dropped my best draft pick- Lee- for my best waiver pickup- Wennberg- lol! Funny how that works out sometimes :P. That being said the losses were adding up and I didnt have a whole lot of injury concerns to hide behind. My league is not necessarily what Id call "trade heavy" which has skewed my perspective on what it takes to get a deal done- and most likely been the mitigating factor behind a lot of bad trades Ive made over the years. i was coming to the conclusion that it was time to blow this thing up. With a shaky mouse pointer I opened my trade block and I put in the name of a guy who I won three championships with, aguy I never thought id trade... Anze Kopitar! I made my first trade towards a legitimate re-build- that was widely panned as an unmitigated failure on these boards (TROLL ALERT: Dont click that link if you have an aversion to giddy over-the-top gloating): http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...04977-Kopi-out

My Kopi/Dubi for Skinner/Ekane

I liked the trade at the time and (spoiler alert) I still like it now . Keep in mind the league is extremely goal and sog heavy (see sig for details) so I felt Kane was a solid add even if he never did break past a 50 point player. Something funny happened here though. I had tasted the thrill of big name trading and it tasted good! I took a breath, closed my eyes... and put Malkins name on the block! The ensuing trade must have seemed comical to the rest of the league because as fast as I scrambled to put Eugenes name on the block the same owner I JUST made a trade with was rifling an offer out to me.

My Malkin for Kopi/Eberle

So yea- I got Kopitar back- lol! My re-build seemed to have the foresight of a tone deaf bat so far. The deal in question though essentially became Skinner, Kane, and Eberle for Malkin. The irony here is that the guy I felt was the safest bet at the time- Eberle- has become the probably the least desirable commodity of the three (what a difference a few months can make!). I was feeling good about this move but my re-aquiring Kopitar meant I could re-open previous negotiations with a different owner about the Slovenian wonder. Its a good thing to because we eventually settled on my highst risk trade yet.

My Kopi/Parise/CC/4th for Forsberg/Hubs/Vas/1st

In retrospect it may seem a lot closer- maybe even a no-brainer, but keep in mind Kopitar was supposedly just going through his annual early season slump, Parise was having a resurgence on an exploding Minnesota squad and Crawford was (and still is) a wins monster which (like most leagues) is immensely important in our format. On the receiving side Forsberg was a coveted piece but still not more than a 60 point player, Huberdeau was injured with only one season of fantasy relevance on his resume and Vas although highly touted was basically a blue and white question mark (fun fact: he was the absolute last pick in our draft). It took a leap of faith but so far the trade is already paying dividends and it brought a fresh dynamic to the roster. In any case- without a serious 1a goalie (Hellboy not cutting it) the re-build was in full swing for this season.

My Zetts for a 2nd

Not a blockbuster- but i think theres still a lesson here regardless. I had taken a firm direction with my roster management and decided Zetts wasnt on it- but I feel like I really could of waited to the trade deadline to maximize the asset I got back for Z. I was personally of the opinion that veterans like that get a bad rap when everyones rosters are new and minty fresh but that he would carry a lot more value as a reliable source of production when teams were getting more itchy for those coveted playoff spots. In the end I guess he could have regressed (theoreticcaly) and just been a dropper- Im not to upset about getting a second. I was condensing my roster down to its bare bones when I completed a trifecta of hilarity with my THIRD trade involving the same owner, and involving the same player TWICE when I re-acquired.

My Wennberg/Hubs/Hellebyuck for Malkin/Lehner

Ok I fully admit this re-build is really starting to look ridiculous on paper- lol! That being said I couldnt pass on this kind of value for Malkin. I was really skeptical about Wennberg (hes allergic to shooting the puck and seemed due for regression with that unhealthy ratio of powerplay production) and I love Hellboy but I honestly feel like he and Lehner are pretty much a wash (so far at least). I DO like Huberdeau a lot but Malkins ppg production when hes healthy was just too much to pass up. Hes only 30. I feel like he will still be an elite fantasy asset in at least the next 1-2 year window and with a better supporting cast my team should be contending with Malking seated on his rightful throne. At this point Ive made too many trades Im happy with so Im due for a thorough bed shitting on the next one.

My Horny/Suter for Ghost/2nd

Mission accomplished. This is bad. In my format Hornqvist is an absolute beast (based on his sogs) even when hes only putting up 55ish points in a season. Hes obviously still likely got another gear too signed on a loaded penguins squad (for the next two years anyways). A big mitigating factor for this trade was that I really wanted to wash my hands of Suter. Hed be too solid to be a dropper but was definitely not the kind of keeper I was trying to build around. I knew Ghost was struggling (although I wasnt totally clued in as to how bad- and not expecting this level of mediocrity)- but I thought I was swinging for the fences. I figured 40 points with sky high upside was a nice gamble- but in the end I was probably guilty of "buying into the hype" a bit too much with Ghost and definitely paid too much. In my defense I really tried to swap out Hornqvist for Brass or Ziba but alas it was not to be. Which brings me to my next trade.

My Brass/Ziba/3rd for 1st

This is debatebly an overpayment for a pick upgrade but I should clarify that I had made some savvy (imho) waiver adds in the interim before this- with Clayton Keller, Lindholm and Guentzel. So in essence I get to keep Lindholm and Keller with the 1st. Looking at in that light I felt it was worth condensing my best keeper list for the pick upgrade. With that strategy in mind.

My Sharp/Guentzel/2nd for a 1st

I might ive to regret this as my (very early 2nd) for a (very late 1st) will likely only mean a net gain of 10 or so draft spots. Sharp was never going to be a keeper (damn that Draisaitl trade still stings!)- but choosing Lindholm over Guentzel as my final keeper could come back to haunt me. Only time will tell I guess.

Before

F- Malkin, Kopi, Parise, Zetts, Dubinsky, Sharp, Brassard, Zibanejad, Horn, Lee, Gaborik, Bonino
D- Buff, Suter, Trouba, Lindholm
G- Crawford, Helle


After
F- Malkin, Forsberg, Skinner, Kane, Eberle, Lindholm, Keller
D- Buff, Ghost, Trouba
G- Vas, Lehner
Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2


So it was a bit of a bizarre journey with a lot of twists and turns along the way but I feel like Ive taken a decisive first year towards a much needed rebuild. Ive got youth and my roster plays toward my leagues structure- heavy on the shots and goal production. So far a lot of my gambles have paid (or are starting to pay) off. Ive got a plethora of early picks to fill out a roster that could look to really start doing some damage again as early as next year.

Anyways thanks for sticking around for the gratuitous, self indulgent read :P. If you made it this far I hope you got something from it- wether it was just a chuckle or even if it was just to feel better about your trades this year- lol!!

Happy hockeying!!!

[evans334]

Quite the ride.
These two trades that I think you'll regret the most.

Wennberg/Hubs/Hellebyuck for Malkin/Lehner
My Brass/Ziba/3rd for 1st

Good luck with the picks, you can always flip those near draft deadline for some more youth and potential.
Draft pick value always sky rockets around the draft, espeacially for those who don't have many picks.

[BreadManPanarin]

Holy TLDR Batman

Congrats on the three titles. In the end those are all that matters.

[Fighting_Emu]

Thanks- lol!

Yea I figured it was too long- maybe should have broke it into chunks- lol!

[Fighting_Emu]

Quite the ride.
These two trades that I think you'll regret the most.



Good luck with the picks, you can always flip those near draft deadline for some more youth and potential.
Draft pick value always sky rockets around the draft, espeacially for those who don't have many picks.

Thanks for reading!!

Yea i dont disagree- with that many trades and that much upside Im sure Im going to regret something down the line. The Malkin one I feel like I had to do- but Im concerned that Hellboy will blow up- that would really make this cringe worthy. With the other one- Zibanejad blowing up would definitely come back to haunt me- especially considering I only got a marginal pick upgrade out of it. That being said it allowed me to keep Keller and early indications are promising. As long as kellerblows up to the same degree (or more!) then I feel like it would still be a win- lol! Im ok gambling on Lindholm over Brass. Ive been a faithful Brassard owner for many years and I like what he brings to the table- but while I dont think this years struggles signify a full on regression- I also dont believe hes going to be duplicating tht 27 goal campaign from last year. I think hes a solid 55-60 point, 20 goal player whose a little light on sogs (I generally look for 200ish and hes in the 170 range). There are a lot of value in guys like that with a proven track record- but i feel ok gambling that Lindholm could develop into that (has already developed into?) and the extra 1st doesnt hurt (like you said I could look at flipping a 1st or even multiple first to upgrade my keepers before next years draft).

But thanks again for reading!!! I didnt think anyone would- its a pretty clunky piece- should have toned down the word count- maybe cut a few adjectives next time :P

[Fighting_Emu]

Quite the ride.
These two trades that I think you'll regret the most.



Good luck with the picks, you can always flip those near draft deadline for some more youth and potential.
Draft pick value always sky rockets around the draft, espeacially for those who don't have many picks.

Thanks for reading!!

Yea i dont disagree- with that many trades and that much upside Im sure Im going to regret something down the line. The Malkin one I feel like I had to do- but Im concerned that Hellboy will blow up- that would really make this cringe worthy. With the other one- Zibanejad blowing up would definitely come back to haunt me- especially considering I only got a marginal pick upgrade out of it. That being said it allowed me to keep Keller and early indications are promising. As long as kellerblows up to the same degree (or more!) then I feel like it would still be a win- lol! Im ok gambling on Lindholm over Brass. Ive been a faithful Brassard owner for many years and I like what he brings to the table- but while I dont think this years struggles signify a full on regression- I also dont believe hes going to be duplicating tht 27 goal campaign from last year. I think hes a solid 55-60 point, 20 goal player whose a little light on sogs (I generally look for 200ish and hes in the 170 range). There are a lot of value in guys like that with a proven track record- but i feel ok gambling that Lindholm could develop into that (has already developed into?) and the extra 1st doesnt hurt (like you said I could look at flipping a 1st or even multiple first to upgrade my keepers before next years draft).

But thanks again for reading!!! I didnt think anyone would- its a pretty clunky piece- should have toned down the word count- maybe cut a few adjectives next time :P

[Fighting_Emu]

Holy TLDR Batman

Congrats on the three titles. In the end those are all that matters.

You should read it though Breadman!! You always have great input and insight- lol- would love to hear your perspective! if you read it Ill rep you! Ill even owe you one- Ii write an article/thread about any topic/player of your choice- thats a good deal!!!

Ill even write a before and after piece on your team if you want :P

[BreadManPanarin]

Okay, since you asked nicely:

Going into the draft I was still on the fence about a full scale re-build. I kind of waffled a bit and decided to take take players young enough to have upside but established enough that i could bank on some proven production.

Always difficult to toe the line between making moves for contention vs moves for rebuild. Example: I am in the 5th seed currently out of 6 playoff spots in my league, it is the final week before playoffs, the two teams below me are super close in record, and yet I am holding Clayton Keller and Jesse Puljujarvi on active roster and burning potential starts to do so, because I really want them for next year and the future. It might cost me a playoff spot, and if it doesn't then it will almost assuredly mean I won't move past the 1st or 2nd round.... but it still feels worth it. lol

Hellboy was a solid enough pick with my first but had I committed to a full scale rebuild i would have gambled harder on my D picks (and won). Im really tentative with first year d-men because their development trends can be very hard to predict. I am not overly disappointed with Trouba (he really has come in strong in a quiet way)- but had Provorov AND Werenski in the Q (no Joke) and decided I could wait to add one because I needed to add that PROVEN element in my third d-man slot first. Both guys went between Trouba and my next pick. Bonino and Gaborik were both sterling examples about how I was keeping one foot out of the re-build door.

Ouch. Too bad you didn't get Werenski... he would have been best of those three in your setup probably. And yeah, adding Bonino and Gaborik likely didn't help you this year or going forward.

In a weird plot twist I dropped my best draft pick- Lee- for my best waiver pickup- Wennberg- lol! Funny how that works out sometimes :P.

Nice pickup on Wennberg, although I don't love him in your league setup... too one dimensional. I see you traded him later though, which was smart. I too picked him up this year and dropped him because of his lack of goals and SOG.

My Kopi/Dubi for Skinner/Ekane

I liked the trade at the time and (spoiler alert) I still like it now . Keep in mind the league is extremely goal and sog heavy (see sig for details) so I felt Kane was a solid add even if he never did break past a 50 point player. Something funny happened here though. I had tasted the thrill of big name trading and it tasted good!

Skinner and Kane are both very good players in your setup, and Kopitar hasn't been himself this year. I see why people were against it at the time, but I like guys who throw big SOG numbers in a setup like yours.

I took a breath, closed my eyes... and put Malkins name on the block! The ensuing trade must have seemed comical to the rest of the league because as fast as I scrambled to put Eugenes name on the block the same owner I JUST made a trade with was rifling an offer out to me.

My Malkin for Kopi/Eberle

So yea- I got Kopitar back- lol! My re-build seemed to have the foresight of a tone deaf bat so far. The deal in question though essentially became Skinner, Kane, and Eberle for Malkin. The irony here is that the guy I felt was the safest bet at the time- Eberle- has become the probably the least desirable commodity of the three (what a difference a few months can make!). I was feeling good about this move but my re-aquiring Kopitar meant I could re-open previous negotiations with a different owner about the Slovenian wonder. Its a good thing to because we eventually settled on my highst risk trade yet.

I don't like this trade very much at all. Not high on Eberle and I like Malkin way more than Kopitar. But as you said, Kopitar was going to be dangled in future negotiations.

My Kopi/Parise/CC/4th for Forsberg/Hubs/Vas/1st

In retrospect it may seem a lot closer- maybe even a no-brainer, but keep in mind Kopitar was supposedly just going through his annual early season slump, Parise was having a resurgence on an exploding Minnesota squad and Crawford was (and still is) a wins monster which (like most leagues) is immensely important in our format. On the receiving side Forsberg was a coveted piece but still not more than a 60 point player, Huberdeau was injured with only one season of fantasy relevance on his resume and Vas although highly touted was basically a blue and white question mark (fun fact: he was the absolute last pick in our draft). It took a leap of faith but so far the trade is already paying dividends and it brought a fresh dynamic to the roster. In any case- without a serious 1a goalie (Hellboy not cutting it) the re-build was in full swing for this season.

I really like this trade for you, as mentioned before. Forsberg is a goal scorer which is very valuable in your league, and he should keep getting better. I like Huberdeau better than Parise now and later, and while Crawford is an established top goalie I think that only lasts as long as he is the guy in Chicago. Vasi I see being a stud for the next decade at least, and quite possibly a top 3 goalie. I am higher on him than most, though. The upgrade from 4th to 1st pick is icing on the cake for me here. Not a great trade for a contender, but a very very good rebuild/retool trade imo.

My Zetts for a 2nd

No problem with this, since you're retooling.

My Wennberg/Hubs/Hellebyuck for Malkin/Lehner

Good trade! I don't like Wennberg in your setup as I said previously, and I didn't really like the fact that you traded away Malkin. Glad you got him back. I think the jury is still out on Hellebuyck, and while you could regret swapping him for Lehner it could also end up looking smart. Lehner is more proven thus far and Buffalo is improving.

My Horny/Suter for Ghost/2nd

Mission accomplished. This is bad. In my format Hornqvist is an absolute beast (based on his sogs) even when hes only putting up 55ish points in a season. Hes obviously still likely got another gear too signed on a loaded penguins squad (for the next two years anyways). A big mitigating factor for this trade was that I really wanted to wash my hands of Suter. Hed be too solid to be a dropper but was definitely not the kind of keeper I was trying to build around. I knew Ghost was struggling (although I wasnt totally clued in as to how bad- and not expecting this level of mediocrity)- but I thought I was swinging for the fences. I figured 40 points with sky high upside was a nice gamble- but in the end I was probably guilty of "buying into the hype" a bit too much with Ghost and definitely paid too much.

Ouch. I don't like this one. Not a huge Ghost believer, and Horny is a beast in your setup like you mentioned. I guess it depends on how Ghost does going forward and what you can get for that 2nd rounder. I probably would have looked for a different return for Horny/Suter.

My Brass/Ziba/3rd for 1st

This is debatebly an overpayment for a pick upgrade but I should clarify that I had made some savvy (imho) waiver adds in the interim before this- with Clayton Keller, Lindholm and Guentzel. So in essence I get to keep Lindholm and Keller with the 1st. Looking at in that light I felt it was worth condensing my best keeper list for the pick upgrade. With that strategy in mind.

On the surface it looks bad, but Brassard/Zibanejad and a 3rd for Keller, Guentzel, Lindholm,and a 1st is something I am fine with given your situation. I think Keller is going to be a stud with a capital S. Not super high on Guentzel, but he helped in your next trade.

My Sharp/Guentzel/2nd for a 1st

I might ive to regret this as my (very early 2nd) for a (very late 1st) will likely only mean a net gain of 10 or so draft spots. Sharp was never going to be a keeper (damn that Draisaitl trade still stings!)- but choosing Lindholm over Guentzel as my final keeper could come back to haunt me. Only time will tell I guess.

Too bad about Draisaitl.... I don't think Lindholm will be on your squad long term. You will end up upgrading on him I bet.

Before

F- Malkin, Kopi, Parise, Zetts, Dubinsky, Sharp, Brassard, Zibanejad, Horn, Lee, Gaborik, Bonino
D- Buff, Suter, Trouba, Lindholm
G- Crawford, Helle


After
F- Malkin, Forsberg, Skinner, Kane, Eberle, Lindholm, Keller
D- Buff, Ghost, Trouba
G- Vas, Lehner
Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2

So it was a bit of a bizarre journey with a lot of twists and turns along the way but I feel like Ive taken a decisive first year towards a much needed rebuild. Ive got youth and my roster plays toward my leagues structure- heavy on the shots and goal production. So far a lot of my gambles have paid (or are starting to pay) off. Ive got a plethora of early picks to fill out a roster that could look to really start doing some damage again as early as next year.

Overall the path you took seemed a bit disjointed and not as though there was a real clear goal in mind for a while. However, I like the sum of the parts that you ended with. Managed to retain Malkin, which is good. I like Forsberg + Skinner more than Kopi + Parise. Kane is a beast if he keeps up his recent good play. Don't love Eberle or Lindholm but you can use them as trade pieces at some point. Keller will hopefully be a cornerstone piece. I think that you will end up very happy with Vasy as your foundational netminder, but that remains to be seen for sure. Ultimately the question is what you will be able to do with those high picks. If you can get a better collection of pieces than Dubinsky, Sharp, Zibenejad, Hornqvist, Lee, and Suter with those picks (which I must imagine is easily achievable...) then I think your rebuilding effort was quite successful! Drop an update after the draft so that we can make a final appraisal on the finished product.

[Fighting_Emu]

Thanks for the input!!! That was a great thoughtful and thorough response. I tend to agree that the moves were a little erratic with some missteps along the way but happy with the "sum of the parts" achieved in the end. Do you play in a sog heavy format? Because your analysis with the shooter types was spot on. Wennberg is like flat gingerale in our format and Hornqvist is crazy underrated (and a very bad guy to ship out- lol). Im trying to look at the Hellebyuck/Lehner swap in the same light as you were describing- I just get nervous because the hype train is rolling with Hellboy. I do think theyre pretty equal right now and Lehners posted some pretty solid numbers while facing down a LOT of rubber on buffalo this year- lol! Im really optimistic about Vas- and hearing possible top three gets me a little bit giddy- lol!! The flurry of trades at the end Brass/Ziba/Guentzl/Sharp were hard to explain but I feel like you see the same value I was seeing- Keller/Lindholm/and two extra firsts just makes more sense than keeping any 2 of those guys and dropping the rest for nothing. I also have to agree (again- lol!) that Im not sure Lindholm is a core piece long term. In fact he had the least apparent trade value- which is why I ended up being ok with settling for him as a keeper (other guys got more return in a trade). I think I would have found a way to keep Keller no matter what.

I hear ya about that fine line between active production and waiting on prospects. I think you have two of the best in Pool Party and Keller so Id likely make the same decision in your shoes. Those guys should be worth it in the long run- nice consolation prize(s) if you miss the playoffs because of them.

In any case I really appreciate the response and insight. I cant rep you apparently but Ill put it in my notes to make sure I give you some when Ive spread so more around. Good luck this week!! Having your playoff hopes come down to the last week of the season is stressful but its also pretty badass- thats the shit you get into pools for in the first place- lol!! ill have my fingers crossed for you dude- gotta post back on here to let us know if you made it or not.

Muchos appreciatos!!!