Are their best years behind them?

[RizzeeDizzee]

That's the key question I set out to answer in this week's cage match pitting John Carlson against Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who both also were in last week's 2016-17 disappointments tournament: http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...ou-rather-own/

The stakes couldn't be much higher when it comes to defensemen, as these two were drafted or kept in leagues with every expectation of them at least duplicating their 55+ point production from last season, yet they've fallen short thus far, and by enough that there are whispers of whether they peaked early.

This is one of those cage matches where I think the data and analysis really painted a pretty clear and useful picture, so I highly recommend you check it out, especially - of course - if you own one or both players. Once you read it, come back and let us know your thoughts. Do you agree with my conclusions? Are you worried about owning either one? How do you see them performing over the rest of this season, and beyond?

[ross10019]

Great job bud! Good read and lots of food for thought. As i posted there, tough call between these two, but tend to agree that at least for the near future, it's Carlson. I made a trade this year where I moved Carlson for Seth Jones in order to get upgrade elsewhere - will be very interested to see how Jones ends up stacking up against these two in a few years.

[ross10019]

One comment to add: I think with both of these guys there is a reasonable chance that they end up posting one or more SIXTY plus seasons, they are that good. I value them both very highly in any keeper league.

[havanablast21]

Great Read.

Although I'm still holding on to the "Perennial Norris Candidate" banter of 2 years back for OEL. 50+ points and the peripheral's OEL brings is still worth a bundle in my league (if he can improve on the stupid +/-... ). Anxiously awaiting the "See... OEL is still a STUD" cage match up 2 seasons from now!



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Great Read.

Although I'm still holding on to the "Perennial Norris Candidate" banter of 2 years back for OEL. 50+ points and the peripheral's OEL brings is still worth a bundle in my league (if he can improve on the stupid +/-... ). Anxiously awaiting the "See... OEL is still a STUD" cage match up 2 seasons from now!

[Justinsane87]

I sure hope that OEL bounces back... But seeing this Im may not be as confidend as before.

I kept him last year for my 2 D spot in my keeper pool with Subban and this year I might keep Hedman in is place. Do you think Hedman is a better keep than OEL for the next 3 years or so??

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I sure hope that OEL bounces back... But seeing this Im may not be as confidend as before.

I kept him last year for my 2 D spot in my keeper pool with Subban and this year I might keep Hedman in is place. Do you think Hedman is a better keep than OEL for the next 3 years or so??

[RizzeeDizzee]

Great Read.

Although I'm still holding on to the "Perennial Norris Candidate" banter of 2 years back for OEL. 50+ points and the peripheral's OEL brings is still worth a bundle in my league (if he can improve on the stupid +/-... ). Anxiously awaiting the "See... OEL is still a STUD" cage match up 2 seasons from now!

I definitely was an OEL skeptic back in 2014 - not because I didn't think the talent was there, but whether he had another gear given the team around him. Then last year happened and I was pretty well sold, but figured I'd get to him at some point in order to "kick the tires" via a Cage Match. And although the results do raise some concerns about his production last season, that was with essentially no support. While I don't like to pin hopes on players getting propped up when their teams improve, since no one can truly predict if/when that will actually happen, I think in OEL's case it seems very realistic that even if Arizona managed to kick things up a small notch he should be among the main beneficiaries.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I sure hope that OEL bounces back... But seeing this Im may not be as confidend as before.

I kept him last year for my 2 D spot in my keeper pool with Subban and this year I might keep Hedman in is place. Do you think Hedman is a better keep than OEL for the next 3 years or so??

That's tough to say without having looked closely at the data for Hedman for this season versus others, when he wasn't quite as successful. Certainly if Hedman's scoring gains haven't been due to unsustainable good luck then I think he becomes at least OEL's equal if not even better, although in leagues like yours with a premium for goals OEL does have added benefit. Could you trade one of them? That way you won't have the dilemma of choosing between them. Also, have you considered not keeping Subban, or trading him?

[FinnishFlash]

Real nice article!

I think both guys are just below that "elite" category reserved for Karlsson, Burns and maybe Hedman after this year.

Both Carlson and OEL have the upside for 60 points with a 40 point floor. My experience though, is that OEL has a much higher perceived value. In a dynasty league this year, OEL went 4th round, Carlson went in the 8th. Seems like in all of my leagues, the ask for Carlson is much lower than the ask for OEL.

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Real nice article!

I think both guys are just below that "elite" category reserved for Karlsson, Burns and maybe Hedman after this year.

Both Carlson and OEL have the upside for 60 points with a 40 point floor. My experience though, is that OEL has a much higher perceived value. In a dynasty league this year, OEL went 4th round, Carlson went in the 8th. Seems like in all of my leagues, the ask for Carlson is much lower than the ask for OEL.

[Justinsane87]

That's tough to say without having looked closely at the data for Hedman for this season versus others, when he wasn't quite as successful. Certainly if Hedman's scoring gains haven't been due to unsustainable good luck then I think he becomes at least OEL's equal if not even better, although in leagues like yours with a premium for goals OEL does have added benefit. Could you trade one of them? That way you won't have the dilemma of choosing between them. Also, have you considered not keeping Subban, or trading him?

Honestly I never thought about trading/not keeping Subban before, because I always perceived him as my best Dmen (I drafted him pretty high 2 yrs ago in my initial keeper draft). But since he's with NSH I think his value has dropped alot and that he may not be the elite defencemen he was in MTL. With Josi around I dont know if he's never gonna be as good (fantasy wise) as before. But I kinda need all of them this year because the race is pretty tight and there's pretty much nobody that can replace him right know (trade or free agent). And IF someone wants to trade to have Subban, what kind of Dmen would you look for in return?

But if you suggest that I trade Subban is it because you think both Hedman and OEL are/will be better than him for the next 3-4 years?

Anyways, dont want to hijack this tread but any inputs would be appreciated.

Thanks

[MasterByte]

Thank you for actually saying something other than OEL is a stud. Everytime I draft him I regret it. I know he's a great player but you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Others (usually) ranked below him provide more reliable results at a lower price point.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Honestly I never thought about trading/not keeping Subban before, because I always perceived him as my best Dmen (I drafted him pretty high 2 yrs ago in my initial keeper draft). But since he's with NSH I think his value has dropped alot and that he may not be the elite defencemen he was in MTL. With Josi around I dont know if he's never gonna be as good (fantasy wise) as before. But I kinda need all of them this year because the race is pretty tight and there's pretty much nobody that can replace him right know (trade or free agent). And IF someone wants to trade to have Subban, what kind of Dmen would you look for in return?

But if you suggest that I trade Subban is it because you think both Hedman and OEL are/will be better than him for the next 3-4 years?

Anyways, dont want to hijack this tread but any inputs would be appreciated.

Thanks

If you truly need all three, then by all means don't trade one during the season. But given how small your league is I don't think you'd be able to deal one of them in the offseason, so that means you'll lose one of the three for nothing. Also, because you were able to get Hedman in the draft you shouldn't worry too much about making the wrong choice, since good guys will be out there for you to get. That all having been said, I think that Subban might not be as elite in Nashville as some would've hoped for.

If it was me, I'd look to trade Subban or OEL during the season. I realize the race is tight, but it's not like you won't be getting anything in return, especially given the "name" value they both have. Maybe you don't get a comparable d-man in return, but perhaps the idea would be that you package a weaker one of your forwards (like Schwartz) with Subban in order to upgrade a forward? It's always difficult when it comes to 6 team leagues - everyone is so stacked.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Thank you for actually saying something other than OEL is a stud. Everytime I draft him I regret it. I know he's a great player but you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Others (usually) ranked below him provide more reliable results at a lower price point.

Just to be clear - it's not so much that I said that, as the data and analysis led to conclusions that OEL's 2015-16 production was not representative of his likely near term output. A couple of years ago I received a lot of criticism (at least some of which, in hindsight, was deserved) for being too close-minded about OEL, so I don't want to go down that road again.

OEL is extremely talented and showed that he could produce well when given SUPERB minutes and with good luck on his side. I think there's still room for him to be a 50 point guy and, with a much better team around him, even 55+ again.

For the time being though, and as Finnish Flash noted, his perceived value is likely higher than his actual value, even in keepers.

[FFleming5]

I agree, I believe that OEL definitely has the talent to put up another 50-55 point season, however, that is unlikely to happen until Arizona is capable of scoring more goals. Arizona scored more last season as Shane Doan had probably his last good year w/ an amazing 28 goals.

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I agree, I believe that OEL definitely has the talent to put up another 50-55 point season, however, that is unlikely to happen until Arizona is capable of scoring more goals. Arizona scored more last season as Shane Doan had probably his last good year w/ an amazing 28 goals.