Marner vs Radulov

[8HealthyScratches]

​Marner vs Radulov

I'm assuming the draft goes Matthews, Laine and Puljujärvi....although the guy with the 3rd overall pick is a huge leafs fan, and so maybe he grabs Marner at 3 instead.

I'm defending my title and definately competing this year, so does it make sense to grab Radulov over Marner? It might give me a slight advantage this year, but does Marner's upside, given the average age of my team, trump this year's edge I would get from Radulov.

Going for it this year scenario, Marner vs Radulov:

Marner
Best case scenario:
-sticks: instant chemistry, gets 55pts, anything more is bonus

Realistic case scenario:
-sticks: gets 40-50pts

Worse case scenario:
-plays 9 games, sent down; I have depth to replace him with a 45-50+pts player: Draistl, Skinner, Kadri

Radulov:
Best case scenario:
-instant chemistry, gets 70+ pts, signs, becomes a threat for 65+pts for 3-5 years

Realistic case scenario:
-plays well, but injury/age/NHL competition level catches up to him/etc, gets 55-60pts, signs for 3-5 years and has 50-65pts per year

Worse case scenario:
-injured, tough time adjusting, etc gets: 40-55 pts, he goes back to the KHL, I waste the pick and loose Marner as a prospect

The swing is potentially anywhere from 0-20+ pts. 0 points if draft Marner and he's sent down and I repalce him with a 50pts player. 20+ points if I draft Radulov and he gets 70pts, replaces my 50pts depth player.
Realistically though, Marner sticks and gets 45pts, and Radulov gets 60pts, which gives only a 10pts negative swing if I take Marner (50pts depth player is used, Marner would be on my bench).

Sorry for the long winded case presenation....I'm thinking I can afford Marner's upside, but I would appreciate your opinions!

[Eskimo Brother]

Going for it I think the smart money is on Radulov. Personally though I would go with Marner just because I don't like Radulov.

[als_revenge]

If I'm going for it, I pick Radulov.

Also, have you considered trading down? With Marner on the board, I assume there are some other really good rookies available too. And if there are youth-chasing teams at the high end of your draft, you might be able to trade down and still get Radulov.

[Eskimo Brother]

If I'm going for it, I pick Radulov.

Also, have you considered trading down? With Marner on the board, I assume there are some other really good rookies available too. And if there are youth-chasing teams at the high end of your draft, you might be able to trade down and still get Radulov.

Very very good point here.

[masterjeff]

I'd go for Marner.. he will most certainly make the team and the point difference won't be such an issue..
Radulov is good, but he's probably going to be with Plekanec and the way Therrien coaches it doesn't inspire me confidence in offensive numbers besides Pac and Chuck
The idea of trading down is pretty sweet .. try grabbing 5-7 spot with an extra pick in later rounds

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Radulov is the best player on the Habs next to Price and perhaps Weber. The level of hate and scepticism about him is incredibly emotional, and creating a fantastic bargain in terms of where he'll be available in drafts. Trade down, picks Radulov, and enjoy your 60-80 points.

[ericdaoust]

Radulov is the best player on the Habs next to Price and perhaps Weber. The level of hate and scepticism about him is incredibly emotional, and creating a fantastic bargain in terms of where he'll be available in drafts. Trade down, picks Radulov, and enjoy your 60-80 points.

This guy gets it!

[StuntMan12]

Even if I was contending I would take Marner then FLIP him for someone better than Radulov. Radulov could be back in Russia by next spring. Marner is a top notch prospect.

[STONE.]

Even if I was contending I would take Marner then FLIP him for someone better than Radulov. Radulov could be back in Russia by next spring. Marner is a top notch prospect.

Ha! You'd flip him 15 times for 35 different players and end up with an entirely new roster!

I'm on board with Radulov here, but the suggestion to trade down is awesome. You know your league, but with Marner available, I'm guessing there are other good rookies too. If you can get a sense of what others are looking for, I'd try to slide and nab the Hab.

[STLblues]

Sergei Mozyakin has won 5 scoring titles in the last 8 seasons in the KHL while radulov has played there....I realize radulov is no slouch and has won a couple as well but the fact remains Mozyakin has been more prolific during Radulovs tenure....

If Radulov is a 70 point player then would Mozyakin be a top 3 Art Ross finisher? Radulov plays 35-50 games in an inferior league and is on the other side of 30 now.....I just think the hype is a bit much

[8HealthyScratches]

Wow...so itsn't just me...we seem pretty split on this decision. Quite the predicamment!..

I do like the idea of trading down, I'll explore it with the GMs with picks 5-7, but I'm not sure that I can get much out of them. With that said, I don't think Radulov slides to 6th, so I would have to swap with GM at 5.
I'll explore trading up to 2 to get Laine....but that'll be tough.


...I do agree with STLBlues that the hype on Radulov is high!

[The Black Panther]

Mariner should go 3rd overall anyhow.

[masterjeff]

Mariner should go 3rd overall anyhow.

Id pick Marner over Pul

[an0maly]

Radulov is the best player on the Habs next to Price and perhaps Weber. The level of hate and scepticism about him is incredibly emotional, and creating a fantastic bargain in terms of where he'll be available in drafts. Trade down, picks Radulov, and enjoy your 60-80 points.

This post leaves me rather dumbfounded. Radulov is a talented player, but lets not pretend like the KHL is anywhere near the same level of competition as the NHL. I predict he'll be a serviceable player, but to say he'll out produce Patches and Galchenyuk is stretch in my opinion, nevermind the prospect of him hitting 80 points.

As far as the topic at hand, I'd take Marner or trade the pick.

[Reuben]

Mariner should go 3rd overall anyhow.

If that's really truth, then our man should do the right thing and grab Puljujarvi. He will be beast mode in Edmonton.

But for the matter at hand - if Marner and Radulov are available at 4, take Radulov. You're trying to win and Radulov is more likely to produce higher numbers this year and next year than Marner is. And if Marner is still available to draft this year (much like in my one league, where Marner, Strome are draft available this year), then I'm willing to bet that in the next couple/few years you'll be able to grab another high prospect in the draft.