2016/17 Rocky Horror Roto Show

[horrorfan]

Nice post, thanks for sharing, Peng. I don't go anywhere near that level of detail (impressive, btw) but I have a few methods I use together (e.g. a bit of FHG/other lists comparing the occasional player, previous draft results, forum comments, my own knowledge etc.) to help my draft prep and use them to summarise on a spreadsheet.

For the draft, I use this sheet which sometimes includes lists/tiers or a summary that mainly focuses on my draft position and targets/strategy each round. The latter I planned this year until my strategy changed when Ma took Pavelski! So, I went back to it occasionally but mainly used the summary to populate the pre-draft rankings customised in Yahoo (in a general order, to show some level of importance).

I've never used FHG in the draft not only because you are relying on a computer, but it would take my focus away too much and rather pay attention to the draft itself and socialise when I can.

[Chili con Carne]

Here's my play by play - Team is Markov the Devil.

Last year I went hard after FOW, especially guys who took draws from the wing and tried to load up on what I thought were high upside forwards. I got burned on some offensive stats, especially SOG and G. I also had a brutal d-core (Suter was my #1!). This year my plan was to go after SOG, G and PP1 time. I decided I would take one elite level d-man in the first two rounds but otherwise focus on wingers early who fit my plan. I didn't do a ton of prep but told a buddy of mine that my hope was for BPA, Letang, Perry and Max Pac in the first four rounds. I also wrote down "Hanzal as your fourth C".

Round 1 (10) - Pat Kane. I knew I was largely going to have to wait and see what happened with picks 1-9. When it was my turn I couldn't pass up on last year's point leader. Seguin and Tarasenko were also still on the board but I decided to go with the guy who has already shown how high his upside is. I don't expect 100 points or even 90, but think 80-85 is pretty close to a lock and this will do nicely for my first pick.

Round 2 (15) - Kris Letang. As per above, I wanted at least one elite d in the first two rounds and was happy to see him there. I love his upside. Injury is always a concern but if I can get 65 games from him I will be thrilled. The key to taking a d here is that I did not expect any elite d to be left by the time my next pick at 34 came around. I passed on Seguin and Tarasenko again figuring I can fill out the G with other options later on.

Round 3 (34) - Corey Perry. A winger who fits the SOG, G and PP1 criteria perfectly with some grit. I am hoping for 30-35 from him.

Round 4 (39) - Max Pacioretty. Another winger who fits my criteria and throws a good amount of hits. So far my plan has gone exactly according to plan (not saying it is a great plan, but A+ for execution!).

Round 5 (58) - Phil Kessel. I really wasn't sure what to do after round 4 other than try to round out wingers and keep looking for the key stats. I did scour the goalies at this point but didn't see anything I liked and thought I could get value later on (more on this to come!). I am high on Phil and think he could have a great year. After five rounds I have four wingers who should threaten for 30 goals. I like it! Two of my guys (Kane, Kessel) are very thin on grit but I figure I can address this later.

Round 6 (63) - I decided it was time for centre as things were starting to get thin(ish). I don't expect Spezza to hit 30+ goals again but I think he can hit 25 and gets 200 shots while playing on PP1. Strong supporting cast in Dallas so looking for 60+ points.

Round 7 (82) - Matt Duchene. Three RW in my line-up and one LW. I am starting to think LW here but decide to take a bit of a chance of Duchene to help anchor my C. I am hoping for higher scoring in Colorado this year and like his upside. I am also hoping he has a chance at getting LW status (like last year).

Round 8 (87) - Cam Talbot. I can't wait on goalies any longer (and know I have waited too long). My draft position leaves me with too long a wait between picks after even rounds and have seen too much come off the board. I take Talbot based on Dobber's guide and what I am hoping is a notably stronger D core in Edmonton. Cam Talbot as my #1 G, not great at all but not much choice at this point.

Round 9 (106) - Rasmus Ristolainen - very happy with this pick and added validation when Pengwin lets us know this was his next pick. He brings it across the board other than +/- which I am hoping improves.

Round 10 (111) - David Krejci. Looking at what's left on C and LW. Getting antsy on both but think I see some names that should drop on the left side. I take Krejci based on the 60+ point upside. His peripherals are bad but I can handle some low SOG guys based on previous picks. 3C, 3RW, 1 LW, 2D, 1G. Liking my skaters.

Round 11 (130) and Round 12 (135) - Alex Steen and Daniel Sedin. This is the spot in my draft where having two picks close together pays off. I need LW and have been eyeing these two for a few rounds. I figure this is the time to strike and grab them both. Both have 60+ point upside, good SOG, goal scoring ability, and PP time. I am very happy with these two.

Round 13 (154) - James Reimer. By now I am very desperate for a G and don't see any starting goalie I like. A few rounds ago I accepted that I may need to go the back up route for quality and/or take a guy like Cam Ward near the end to get my starts. I know this may seem a bit early but most predictions have him getting a good number of starts and with my focus on skaters early on I am happy to reach a bit here to start addressing my weakness.

Round 14 (159) - Andrei Markov. With only two D on my roster I feel the need to take a blue liner. I am really not sure about this pick - could be decent, could be a bit of a train wreck. I like the PPP and BKS so decide to pull the trigger.

Round 15 (178) - Martin Hanzal. I have had him in my queue since the draft started and having been in this league for a few years know if you really want someone then don't be afraid to reach. I look at my team and am pretty low on grit and decide I will be devastated if I lose out on him. Another piece of my (limited) strategy in place.

Round 16 (183) - Michael Stone. Am happy with this pick. Need to round out my D and see upside. Nice combo of HITS, BKS, and SOG to boot.

Round 17 (202) - Antti Raanta. Looking at my G situation and like his stats. I also consider that Lundy is getting older and think this could add a decent amount of starts for a back up. I think this is a decent pick.

Round 18(207) - Michael Cammalleri. I look at the LWs left and only see a few names I like. Big wait until my next pick so decide I need to act. The injury history is scary but I figure if he gets 50 games I can try to find some grit through the waive wire for the other 32.

Round 19 (226) - Dan Girardi. Nice BKS and HITS. I like this for a fifth D. I have plenty of offensive upside so am more than okay to focus on the peripherals with this pick.

Round 20 (231) - Dustin Brown. I need some HITS. Also need some PIM but don't see the right combo so decide Brown's HITS and decent SOG are a good option. With Gaborik out he should also get some PP2 time to start the season.

Round 21 (250) - Jared Spurgeon. Good BKS, decent SOG, chips in with a few PPP. Not bad for my sixth D.

Rounded out things with Scott Darling (hoping for a few more starts on a good team), Luke Schenn (grit, especially PIM), Zajac for FOW (he is already back on waivers) and Horvat for FOW. Looking at my C at the end of the draft I realized they are all pretty low on FOW. The thinking (late and a couple too many beers) was that these last two could help fill in if FOW get tight.

Overall I am very happy with my skaters and very unhappy with my goalies, which is supported by the projection we have seen to date! I am also exposed to injuries in a bad way (Hanzal, Letang, Cammalleri, Steen) but am excited to see how this team plays things out for the first little bit. I think I am solid in G, P, SOG and PPP. I will need to address my goalie situation, either through attentive management or trade. Post-draft note: Stone is on IR+, Zajac kicked to the curb - in are Kuemper and Montoya. Carrying six G while I try to figure things out!

All in all love drafting with this group. It is brutal at times as any semblance of a plan can go to hell in a minute, but nothing beats playing with the best.

[Maaaasquito]

I thought I'd drop some post-draft insight into how I do my own math.

2. Then I shift the weighting myself for sake of drafting. Since I believe PIM, HIT, BLK, FOW can be overdrafted - I seriously downweight those... even though they are still a category. (As a tip, I'd say the #1 mistake that the NOOB-ish GM makes when use an FHG-weight-score table - is that they'll overdraft peripherals like HIT/BLK, because its that contribution that gives a player more perceived value than his Yahoo rank, which does not include those stats.)

One of my dreams is that someday there will be a REAL LIVE "Champion's League" Fantasy Hockey Pool somewhere...
Where the GMs will have to walk into a room with ZERO tools, have the settings announced, and then pick their teams.
For now, there ain't no league closer to that then the superb group of guys we have in RHRS!!! (and I give them the benefit of the doubt that nobody runs FHG-in-draft software, right?)

Vegas! weekend away... hahahaha it'll be fun for me to get there from Aus though...

As for overdrafting... the thing to really keep in mind is that the draft is probably 60% of the way to winning... the other 40% is all the moves and strategy involved during the season. In other leagues where you have dropoff by 2 months in, then drafting becomes more important, because it becomes a "Set and forget" type of league.

With RHRS, I think strategy will play much more of a role. I think all of us aren't really set and forget type of players, we play for pride and when you're in a league like that there's moves that should be constantly happening... THe way I look at it is that, you're essentially pitting your positional players vs all other positional players. Eg.) My C1 vs 11 other C1s, My RW2 vs 12 other RW2s... With the NHL developing much more parity there probably isn't alot of variance between 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round picks... Really you're splitting hairs between, Ovechkin, Kane, Crosby, Benn, Pavelski, etc... it might be a few points here or there, but it'll even out when you pit the 5th round picks together... where the true battle ground is (in my opinion) are the peripheral stats. Which is why I overdraft to secure those stats rather than ignore them completely...

1 thing about overdrafting is that you always have a chance to change course throughout the season in ROTO leagues you can win by an inch or by a mile (Fast and Furious reference), a win is a win... but you don't need to win by doubling the amount of the 2nd place person... Thats where you can always trade to improve other areas. If I'm projected to win HITs by 200, well I can easily look at trading some hits away to improve weaker areas. Much easier than playing from behind and trying to get HITs when you don't have the team to support it.

But to each their own... puck dropping soon! Good luck all!

[Atomic Wedgy]

Not a bad start for Matthews.

[4T2]

Not a bad start for Matthews.

Screw Laine's 300 shots... Matthews in on pace for 328 goals

[Pengwin7]

where the true battle ground is (in my opinion) are the peripheral stats. Which is why I overdraft to secure those stats rather than ignore them completely...

1 thing about overdrafting is that you always have a chance to change course throughout the season in ROTO leagues you can win by an inch or by a mile (Fast and Furious reference), a win is a win... but you don't need to win by doubling the amount of the 2nd place person... Thats where you can always trade to improve other areas. If I'm projected to win HITs by 200, well I can easily look at trading some hits away to improve weaker areas. Much easier than playing from behind and trying to get HITs when you don't have the team to support it.

But to each their own... puck dropping soon! Good luck all!

Opinion, OK... but incorrect (IMO).

If you look through the past years of RHRS, nobody has performed better in peripheral stats than me. (Last year my PIM/FOW/HIT/BLK: 12/12/12/12. I'm the Peripheral-King, b!tches!!!)
I finish 2nd/3rd in the overall standings every year because I don't have enough scoring/goaltending to close the gap at the end.
Every year I push myself to be more scoring-centric, so every year I downgrade my HIT/BLK/PIM category weight so that I become a bit more scoring-centric through my drafting.
(Of course, the real problem to my "not winning"... is temek, who is just a juggernaut. I'm finishing 2nd/2nd/1st/2nd in this league over last four years if he doesn't exist...)

The big problem is this: FOW, HIT, BLK, PIM... these cats are easily found on the waiver wire.
Nobody, except maybe the NOOBs, will pay you in trade value for peripheral specialists.
The only guys that have trade-value need to be goalies or elite scorers.
You can't find PPP or W/SV% combination on the waiver wire. It's the cats that aren't on the waiver wire that people will trade FOR.
[And this is why I accepted the Backstrom/Faulk trade - most key stat there was PPP... where I get a huge boost, unless new COL coach gives EJ lots of PP time and COL figures out how to score on PP.]

If you overdraft HIT/BLK/PIM, you are stuck with them. Trust me - I am the guy that knows.
And if you think you can trade them away for value... you are wrong. Good luck with that.

Sorry - I know my posts always come off harsh - just truth.
Peripherals are so easy to find on the waiver wire and they simply won't fetch you a lot in a trade.
If you get out to a huge lead in FOW/HIT/BLK/PIM... you'll end up eating that overdraft of stats without getting a return.
But... you probably won't get out to a huge lead - those are MY cats. Rarrrr!


Above: Scratchy PengwinCat Guards his Peripheral Box.

[4T2]

I'm going to take this opportunity to post the standings... only because it's probably the only time I'll be at the very top of this league for the season haha (and the only time temek will be sitting so low)

1 SHARPNADO 128.5
2 Skinned Hasselhoff 125
3 Nightmarians 120.5
4 28 Hayes Later 116.5
5 Natural Born Quiller 95
6 Maaaaaa-chete 92
7 The Kings in Yellow 90.5
8 Cannibal Staalocaust 82
9 Markov the Devil 78.5
10 Puck Snatchers 60
11 Gost Story 52
12 Thirteen Ghosts 51.5

[PenguinHunter]

I'm going to take this opportunity to post the standings... only because it's probably the only time I'll be at the very top of this league for the season haha and (the only time temek will be sitting so low)

1 SHARPNADO 128.5
2 Skinned Hasselhoff 125
3 Nightmarians 120.5
4 28 Hayes Later 116.5
5 Natural Born Quiller 95
6 Maaaaaa-chete 92
7 The Kings in Yellow 90.5
8 Cannibal Staalocaust 82
9 Markov the Devil 78.5
10 Puck Snatchers 60
11 Gost Story 52
12 Thirteen Ghosts 51.5

Well there is only one way to go and that is up.

And just want to clarify... my name is based off of this:



- - - Updated - - -

Even though my team is currently performing like this:

[4T2]

You just gave me a great idea for next years team name... drafting Dubinsky and going with Scooby Dubi Doo!

[Maaaasquito]

Opinion, OK... but incorrect (IMO).

If you look through the past years of RHRS, nobody has performed better in peripheral stats than me. (Last year my PIM/FOW/HIT/BLK: 12/12/12/12. I'm the Peripheral-King, b!tches!!!)
I finish 2nd/3rd in the overall standings every year because I don't have enough scoring/goaltending to close the gap at the end.
Every year I push myself to be more scoring-centric, so every year I downgrade my HIT/BLK/PIM category weight so that I become a bit more scoring-centric through my drafting.
(Of course, the real problem to my "not winning"... is temek, who is just a juggernaut. I'm finishing 2nd/2nd/1st/2nd in this league over last four years if he doesn't exist...)

The big problem is this: FOW, HIT, BLK, PIM... these cats are easily found on the waiver wire.
Nobody, except maybe the NOOBs, will pay you in trade value for peripheral specialists.
The only guys that have trade-value need to be goalies or elite scorers.
You can't find PPP or W/SV% combination on the waiver wire. It's the cats that aren't on the waiver wire that people will trade FOR.
[And this is why I accepted the Backstrom/Faulk trade - most key stat there was PPP... where I get a huge boost, unless new COL coach gives EJ lots of PP time and COL figures out how to score on PP.]

If you overdraft HIT/BLK/PIM, you are stuck with them. Trust me - I am the guy that knows.
And if you think you can trade them away for value... you are wrong. Good luck with that.

Sorry - I know my posts always come off harsh - just truth.
Peripherals are so easy to find on the waiver wire and they simply won't fetch you a lot in a trade.
If you get out to a huge lead in FOW/HIT/BLK/PIM... you'll end up eating that overdraft of stats without getting a return.
But... you probably won't get out to a huge lead - those are MY cats. Rarrrr!


Above: Scratchy PengwinCat Guards his Peripheral Box.

no I 100% agree with you... The difference maker stat is PPP!! There is a huge shortage of it when you look the depth of the league... What I'm saying is that when you look at player value, getting someone like Landeskog who's a lot more across the board producer will provide much more value than say Statsny.... You could argue that Statsny would bring a lot of points and PPP, but he won't contribute on the HITs/SOG front... you might get a lot of PPP but you also suffer from the lack of HITs/SOG. Which is why no one touched Thornton... He finished, 4th for points, 2nd in assists, 5th in PPP... if PPP has as much importance as you say it does, he wouldn't have gone 68th...

I agree with you that peripheral stats can be found on the wire, but you are also sacrificing a ton to get them too... You could grab Martin for hits, but what are you getting, 19 points? That's a big sacrifice just to get hits... If you draft a team who will bring peripherals and bring enough of the points, that's the best scenario...

Face it, the key to winning Roto leagues is having enough of all stats and not to focus on concentrating on 1 while sucking on another... It's finding a balance, you can't win with a team full of Kane's...

- - - Updated - - -

Opinion, OK... but incorrect (IMO).

If you look through the past years of RHRS, nobody has performed better in peripheral stats than me. (Last year my PIM/FOW/HIT/BLK: 12/12/12/12. I'm the Peripheral-King, b!tches!!!)
I finish 2nd/3rd in the overall standings every year because I don't have enough scoring/goaltending to close the gap at the end.
Every year I push myself to be more scoring-centric, so every year I downgrade my HIT/BLK/PIM category weight so that I become a bit more scoring-centric through my drafting.
(Of course, the real problem to my "not winning"... is temek, who is just a juggernaut. I'm finishing 2nd/2nd/1st/2nd in this league over last four years if he doesn't exist...)

The big problem is this: FOW, HIT, BLK, PIM... these cats are easily found on the waiver wire.
Nobody, except maybe the NOOBs, will pay you in trade value for peripheral specialists.
The only guys that have trade-value need to be goalies or elite scorers.
You can't find PPP or W/SV% combination on the waiver wire. It's the cats that aren't on the waiver wire that people will trade FOR.
[And this is why I accepted the Backstrom/Faulk trade - most key stat there was PPP... where I get a huge boost, unless new COL coach gives EJ lots of PP time and COL figures out how to score on PP.]

If you overdraft HIT/BLK/PIM, you are stuck with them. Trust me - I am the guy that knows.
And if you think you can trade them away for value... you are wrong. Good luck with that.

Sorry - I know my posts always come off harsh - just truth.
Peripherals are so easy to find on the waiver wire and they simply won't fetch you a lot in a trade.
If you get out to a huge lead in FOW/HIT/BLK/PIM... you'll end up eating that overdraft of stats without getting a return.
But... you probably won't get out to a huge lead - those are MY cats. Rarrrr!


Above: Scratchy PengwinCat Guards his Peripheral Box.

no I 100% agree with you... The difference maker stat is PPP!! There is a huge shortage of it when you look the depth of the league... What I'm saying is that when you look at player value, getting someone like Landeskog who's a lot more across the board producer will provide much more value than say Statsny.... You could argue that Statsny would bring a lot of points and PPP, but he won't contribute on the HITs/SOG front... you might get a lot of PPP but you also suffer from the lack of HITs/SOG. Which is why no one touched Thornton... He finished, 4th for points, 2nd in assists, 5th in PPP... if PPP has as much importance as you say it does, he wouldn't have gone 68th...

I agree with you that peripheral stats can be found on the wire, but you are also sacrificing a ton to get them too... You could grab Martin for hits, but what are you getting, 19 points? That's a big sacrifice just to get hits... If you draft a team who will bring peripherals and bring enough of the points, that's the best scenario...

Face it, the key to winning Roto leagues is having enough of all stats and not to focus on concentrating on 1 while sucking on another... It's finding a balance, you can't win with a team full of Kane's...

[PenguinHunter]

You just gave me a great idea for next years team name... drafting Dubinsky and going with Scooby Dubi Doo!

That is a great idea!!! now its going to be a race to draft him! haha

[PenguinHunter]

Sorry everyone for not responding to trades! This is the first year that I have been in a Yahoo hockey league... and the trade emails were not coming to my phone.

Sorry! I will be better going forward!

[Atomic Wedgy]

KICK HIM OUT!!!!!!!!! hahaha

[Pengwin7]

I'm glad he hasn't been responding.
I offered him a knee-jerk reaction trade a week ago that I would have been really sorry I made.
(Involved me sending him Carey Price!!!)

[PenguinHunter]

I'm glad he hasn't been responding.
I offered him a knee-jerk reaction trade a week ago that I would have been really sorry I made.
(Involved me sending him Carey Price!!!)

Yeah..... I saw that trade it would have been a nice shake-up for sure!