Re: 2016/17 Rocky Horror Roto Show
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Nightmarians - by Pengwin7.
I drafted out of the 11/12 spot in this draft. No disrespect to my fellow GMs, but drafting near the turn means I'd pretty much be thinking about the guy inside me at the turn, 2-time defending champ "temek" (many of us would consider him the KING of fantasy hockey). This works well for me because we've corresponded enough for me to know that temek makes many of his picks based on his own projections - so not only am I considering MY valuations of players, but I have to think about how he might value players... and who is likely to slide.
When you draft near the turn, you can summarize your picks in twos, so I'll do that here for simplicity.
Round 1(11)/2(14). First, here's what I always say... map out your first 2-3 rounds of picks. If you can't do this, you are lazy. You should at least know who you will pick to lead out your team. Here was my top 15 I made: 1.Ovechkin, 2.Crosby, 3.Benn, 4.Pavelski, 5.Holtby, 6.Karlsson, 7.Burns, 8.McDavid, 9.Tavares, 10.Price, 11.Byfuglien, 12.Pat Kane, 13.Giroux, 14.Bergeron. I would say with good confidence that I had planned that I'd be getting Buff/C here... but after 10 picks, Price was on the board and I was 90% confident that temek would want to go with at least 1G (he did last year). So I took Price(11) who I believe to be the only other Tier Ia goalie. Unf, Buff got nabbed at 12/13 along with Cory Schneider - which suggested I did well in stealing Price. It was between Giroux/Bergeron - and even though I actually value Bergeron more highly... I thought he'd be more likely to possibly slide - and as a Flyers fan, choosing Giroux(14) was a no-brainer towards enjoying my season. [Extra Note: I hear people that preach winning so heavily that they'll pass on their fave player - not for me, I do this for fun, I like to follow my fave players.]
Round 3(35)/4(38). I was pretty confident that I'd get to nab Shea Weber here. WTF. He went off the board 25 picks in, even though Yahoo! has him way later. (I speculate that noob-GM had his hands on some FHG rating... have to get an honest answer on that one yet). Anyways - to my shock, 1000+FOW Bergeron(35) (#9 Yahoo fantasy player last year) actually made it all the way here - due to the standard Round 2/3 goalie run. Woo-friggin-hoo. temek went Simmonds/MacKinnon at the turn - which broke my heart because I wanted MacK's FOW from the RW... but with Steven Stamkos(38) on the board, how could I pass. 3C/1G after 4 rounds felt a bit unbalanced for me with C-depth... but I just can't pass on these players.
Round 5(59)/6(62). Jon Toews (59) has become an unsexy pick in fantasy, but he's almost always a top 50 player, a PLUS guy, and a FOW beast. I couldn't pass. I've grown really big on Dylan Larkin (62) - and expect him to be playing center this year with Datsyuk's departure. A lot of guys in fantasy rely on projections, but even the pros sometimes don't capture things like boosting up Larkin's FOW if he's playing center. It's him & Nielsen for DET at C1/C2 and I think Larkin gets PP1 time as well. I think he's gonna be a major surprise this year and I didn't mind reach for him as a RW-eligible player. Certain players hinted at me that the coming year would be their huge breakouts, Larkin is one... another later. After this: 4C/1RW/1G - very unbalanced... and unf, it kept me from a couple really good C-sleepers I was set on way later: Kadri & Bennett.
Round 7(83)/8(86). Without any D roster, I had to jump at them here. There's a Tier II of D-men that go by with Giordano/Hedman/Shatty that lead the way into the guys with really good HIT/BLK. I wanted to get some HIT/BLK in some high SOG/PP D-men... and was willing to reach. I had Muzzin/Risto queued up. I took Jake Muzzin(83) but then felt it was still two rounds early for Risto and that he might slide. After temek's picks of Toffoli/Ladd (he went heavy W power), I saw that Marchand(86) was the last really solid wing on the board, so I took him and was very glad I did. After him went Radulov/JVR/Saad... guys that just don't do it for me. 4C/1LW/1RW/1D/1G
Round 9(107)/10(110). I was bound & determined to get my 2D here. I had three queued up... and the one I REALLY wanted, Risto, was nearing me. Gone at pick #106, one spot before me. Fugg. I think he'll have a good year. I cursed & mentioned how I wanted the guy I affectionately refer to as "Ivan Drago"... and then settled on Seabrook(107) & Suter(11). Yes, two sort of vanilla D that will get me good points, PP, SOG, across the board stats... the D are about to drop off a cliff from having across-the-board stats, so I'm really pleased I got these two. There was the light-weight Ekblad, the non-hitting Keith, the offensively-declining Phaneuf, and the aging Chara in the round after - so I'm really pleased I beat the rush here. 4C/1LW/1RW/3D/1G - and really happy about lack of wings, because I had some really, really good sleepers (IMO) that I could wait another 5-6 rounds on.
Round 11(131)/12(134). While in the mood to load up on D, I decided to keep at it. Two faves of mine: Matt Niskanen(131) and Erik Johnson(134). Both get very solid across-the-board stats. Aside from EJ, my previous 4D are all good PLUS type guys too: LA/CHI/MIN/WAS. These may seem like a "reach" in most leagues, but my own category-ranker put these guys in the top 100. 4C/1LW/1RW/5D/1G.
Round 13(155)/14(158). I felt like another reach here. Much like Larkin, another up&coming young kid that shoots, hits, and should get FOW from the W this season... Elias Lindholm(155). I couldn't wait another round, I expect big things... bigger than Yahoo! projections, so I grabbed him. Between my 3C-workhorses, Larkin, Lindholm, I should be locked in for top three spot in FOW. temek went Bryan Little, Freddie Andersen... and that queued me that I couldn't wait much longer on one of the few remaining NHL #1s... so I went with Mike Smith(158). Smith is an interesting guy because people praised the ARI goalies way too much in the past for the "system" (Tippett/Burke) making the goalies good. Nah, I said Smith was overrated & would crash... and he did. [One of my more controversial posts in the last 3+ years...] Anyways - just gotta clarify that I think the ARI D is MUCH improved and the infusion of youth, IMO, will make this team really dig. I think they will have such hustle that they will steal a LOT of games and I think Mike Smith can be a top 20 goalie! 4C/1LW/2RW/5D/2G
*Life story: I'm a good husband & father. I try pretty hard. My wife, god bless her, gets really upset sometimes for really trivial matters. It was Friday night & I'm obviously having fun with my "fantasy hockey buddies" and she stirs herself into this FRENZY because the kids (age 2 & age 7) ate the rest of the bagged popcorn earlier in the day and she was really planning on enjoying some. So she does that thing, which I think most people will agree is VERY ANNOYING, where somebody makes a comment (to themselves, they say) about how something just isn't going her way. THREE TIMES in a period of 3minutes, she is very clearly being dejected about her completely ruined Friday night because she doesn't have bagged popcorn. After my Smith pick, I tell her I'll get it. I probably haven't run in 3 years. But I ran to the car, sped to the local Walmart, grabbed two bags of bagged popcorn, ran back to the car, sped home, ran in... and got back to the computer 2 picks before I was up. #GoodHusband.*
Round 15(181)/16(184): The fantasy hockey gods rewarded me. Axeman would be proud. With my next pick I went with Nikolaj Ehlers(181). Big year 'comin, yes? I thought it was a steal of a pick here. I'm curious to know if temek had it on his queue. Oddly I had FOUR guys on my queue and temek took two: Anders Lee & Alec Martinez. I actually decided to take a guy that I thought was hanging around too long because of mis-position: Tomas Hertl (C). Hertl's not a C, he's playing LW1... and when he gets that LW, I'll start him in my line-up.'
Round 17/18. I checked temek's team going into this turn... 4 goalies, OK, all set. Dallas DUO: Lehtonen & Niemi - they just can't possibly be as bad as they were last year. Stinks that Seguin is out, TBH-I didn't think about that impact, but I think they are still some good value here. Btw.Price(65starts),Smith(50starts,choose),DAL(50s tarts,choose) - I should have a nice 165 starts. Anyways you slice it, 82gp from a very good team's goalies... in Round 17/18... that's good value.
Round 19/20. Two aging Euros were BY FAR the top Yahoo guys on the board. There is a period in a lot of drafts where people see a name and they think "I'll pass"... and then they do it one round, two rounds, three rounds... and they write it off that they are interested. At SOME POINT, those guys are good value... and Jussi Jokinen & Marian Hossa in round 19/20, I think, are really really good value. So I took them with my wing deficits.
Round 21/22. One thing I trained myself to do is to really learn the "Draft Room". Use the tools, think about how other users are sorting. One thing that does NOT show up, 2014-2015 stats. Just last year. So if a guy is a HIT/BLK beast and there's no projections... and he was injured last year... it won't show up. A PLUS guy that HITs/BLKs like crazy is Brooks Orpik - and I think he's a great guy to really help my stats there. I'd guess my 6D put my top three in BLK. Checkmark there. After temek's pics I took Matt Beleskey. The winger value late in this draft was great. Beleskey was the only big hitter left that gets ANY powerplay time and has high SOG count.
Originally Posted by Pengwin7
